Offensive Line or Wide Receiver for Bears First?

The history of the draft and also of Bears decision makers Ryan Poles and Ian Cunningham suggest where they're better off drafting in Round 2.

There will be good arguments both ways about whether Bears GM Ryan Poles should focus on wide receivers or offensive line with early picks in this draft.

The need exists to find blockers who can protect Justin Fields after he was sacked 36 times in 12 games and also fit the type of run-blocking scheme the Bears will use is obvious. They did draft two tackles last year, and the results were mixed when those rookies played.

When there are only two receivers who have done much at all in the NFL on the roster, the need for more at this position is obvious.

A team only gets so many chances on the first two days of the draft to plug holes. The Bears have three tries, all after Round 1, and here's why they need to focus as much energy as possible on getting wide receiver addressed first when they make the 39th pick.

The Bears "Stockpile"

It's true the Bears are not in the market for offensive lineman who are marginal in their first year. They need someone to keep Fields clean and open things immediately in the wide zone blocking scheme. Fields' health and ability to produce now are important, because he is only going to be on his rookie contract for so long before the Bears need to make a decision on him. They need to give him every possible chance to succeed and to develop.

On the other hand, the only wide receivers they have with histories of success are Darnell Mooney and Byron Pringle. Mooney's impact can't be debated. Pringle's can, since he had three largely unproductive years and even part of a fourth before coming on strong at the end of 2021. Fields must be able to throw to someone besides Mooney, Cole Kmet and David Montgomery. The other free agent receiver the Bears brought in, Equanimeous St. Brown, is still entirely unproven.

The bottom line is there are more offensive linemen with ability or potential than there are receivers on the roster who are capable of filling every starting spot at the starting positions in question or of providing valuable depth.

There is only one receiver who is a proven success. Mooney might run great routes and has the most catches for his first two years of any Bears draft pick at receiver in history but he can't do it for Fields by himself.

Wide Receiver Success Rate

Both in terms of overall league success rate and the success rate by teams where the Bears' top personnel decision makers worked prior to this year, wide receiver has been a tougher position to find later in the draft than offensive line.

Amon Ra-St. Brown is the only receiver drafted in 2021 after Round 2 with more than 34 receptions as a rookie. If the Bears are going to bring in a rookie who makes 34 catches, they'd better have a breakthrough from one of the other receivers not named Mooney. He already had his with 81 receptions. Adding someone in this draft who makes 34 catches as a rookie doesn't do it for Fields, considering the current Bears receiver depth chart.

In 2020, Mooney was the only NFL receiver drafted after Round 2 who made it to 61 catches as a rookie. It's just not that common to see later receiver picks succeed right away.

Add in the key fact that neither team Poles or assistant GM Ian Cunningham worked for previously can point to sustained success drafting receivers after Round 2 over the last five years and it's all the more reason to strike early at the position.

The Chiefs did strike gold with Poles working there when they selected All-Pro Tyreek Hill in Round 5 of the 2016 draft. Hill made the same number of catches as Mooney as a rookie (61) and was also a fifth-rounder like the Bears receiver. He made the Pro Bowl every one of his six seasons in Kansas City.

However, even when the Chiefs took Hill they had a bit of a blunder. They drafted him after Demarcus Robinson, their fourth-round receiver in 2016 who had 145 catches and 14 touchdowns over six years. 

The other receivers the Chiefs took after Round 2 in Poles' final five years there were Cornell Powell (fifth round), Tremon Smith (sixth round) and Jehu Chesson (fourth round). Smith got waived in his second year, Powell was put on the practice squad and waived and Chesson made three receptions.

The Bears have at least one clear example where Poles has been a part of drafting a successful second-round receiver because Mecole Hardman was a second-round pick in 20219 and has 126 catches and 12 TDs.

As for Poles' assistant, Ian Cunningham, the same sort of trend existed. His team, the Eagles, drafted both DeVonta Smith and Jalen Reagor in the first round the last two years and Smith was a great success with 64 catches for 916 yards and five TDs. Reagor, meanwhile, has contributed with 64 catches and three TDs.

However, their attempts while Cunningham was in Philadelphia to bring in receivers after Round 2 were marginal at best. John Hightower made 10 catches and was a fifth-round pick. Sixth-round pick Quez Watkins has made 50 receptions and two TDs, but as a rookie had only seven catches. Sixth-round pick JJ Arcega-Whiteside had seven starts in three years and only 16 total receptions. Fifth-rounder Shelton Gibson made three catches. Mack Hollins had three starts in five years and 56 catches.

So obviously, Poles and Cunningham have no great mastery of the wide receiver position after Round 2 or the Chiefs and Eagles would have been showing up with someone to catch passes besides DeVonta Smith and Hill in the past five years.

Later Offensive Line Success Rate

League-wide and with the teams both Poles and Cunningham helped find talent most recently, it is not that difficult to find starters on the offensive line after Round 2.

Poles is often given a great deal of credit for helping rebuild the Chiefs offensive line. He didn't do it by throwing a bunch of first-round picks at the problem.

Trey Smith last year started every game as a rookie. He was a sixth-round pick.

The Chiefs drafted Lucas Niang in the third round in 2020 but he opted out due to the pandemic. In his first NFL season in 2021 he started nine games.

Seventh-round pick Jordan Mailata is an example of an Eagles starting offensive lineman drafted in the seventh round who went on to become a starter while Cunningham was helping with selections.

Last year there were 11 offensive linemen drafted after the second round in the NFL who started more than half the games as rookies.

So the opportunities to find starters, while not plentiful, do exist after Round 2. 

With personnel people making the picks like Poles/Cunningham, the chances appear far greater of coming up with impact linemen as rookies when drafted later than with the wide receiver position.

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