Bear Digest

Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears Game Day Preview

Examining key statistics and trends in the Week 11 matchup between the Bears and Packers at Soldier Field as Caleb Williams and Chicago try to snap a three-game slide.

Gene Chamberlain

DJ Moore celebrates a first down against the Packers in last season's opener, a game Green Bay won 38-20 at Soldier Field.
DJ Moore celebrates a first down against the Packers in last season's opener, a game Green Bay won 38-20 at Soldier Field. / Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK
In this story:

Green Bay Packers (6-3) at Chicago Bears (4-5)

Kickoff: Noon, Sunday

Where: Soldier Field, Chicago

TV: Fox (Kevin Burkhardt, Tom Brady, Erin Andrews, Tom Rinaldi)

Radio: ESPN AM-1000 (Jeff Joniak, Tom Thayer, Jason McKie)

Sports USA (Larry Kahn, Mark Carrier)

Spanish Radio: Latino Mix 93.5 FM (Omar Ramos, Miguel Esparza)

The Line:  Packers by 5 1/2, over/under 40 1/2 (Fan Duel).

Bears On SI Pick: Packers 23, Bears 12

The Series: The 209th overall game between the teams, including two playoff games. The Packers lead the series 107-95-6. Green Bay moved into the series lead in 2017. The Bears have lost 10 straight to the Packers, the last win coming at Soldier Field in 2018 to clinch their last NFC North title.

The Coaches: Packers coach Matt LaFleur is in his sixth season and owns a 65-34 record. He is 27-19 in road games, 10-0 against the Bears, 4-0 vs. Matt Eberflus’ Bears teams and has a 2-3 record after bye weeks. The Packers had their bye last week.

Bears coach Matt Eberflus is in his third season and is 14-29, including 0-4 against the Packers. The Bears are 11-11 in games at Soldier Field under Eberflus.

The Teams: In a battle of two teams who value the football, the Bears and Packers meet after a troubling turn of events at Halas Hall. The Bears are plus-8 in turnover ratio and the Packers  plus-6, but it hasn't proven to be a useful number for Chicago because of its wasteful offense. The Bears fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron following two straight games without a touchdown and three with 27 points total. The come into the game against their rivals, playing an NFC North game for the first time since they lost 17-9 to the Packers in the 2023 season finale. QB Caleb Williams has been struggling, averaging only 156 yards passing over the last three games without a TD or interception as the Bears try to keep from falling hopelessly out of the playoff chase. Packers QB Jordan Love also has had problems with 10 interceptions and lower completion percentage than last year when he led Green Bay to a playoff win. The Packers are trying to keep pace with the first-place Lions while the Bears are simply trying to score points under new coordinator Thomas Brown.

Stat Leaders: For the Packers, Love is 147 of 240 (61.3%) for 1,820 yards with 15 TDs and 10 interceptions for a passer rating of 88.2. RB Josh Jacobs leads the team in rushing yards with 762 on 158 carries (4.8 yards per carry) and three TDs. ... WR Jayden Reed leads in receptions (620) and yards receiving (620). TE Tucker Kraft is the TD reception leader with five. ... LB Quay Walker leads the Packers in tackles with 64 and LB Eric Wilson leads in tackles for loss with seven. DL Devonte Wyatt is the Packers sacks leader with 3.0. S Xavier McKinney is co-leader in the NFL for interceptions with six.

For the Bears, Williams is 178 of 294 for 1,785 yards (60.5%) with nine TDs, five interceptions and a passer rating of 81.0. D'Andre Swift leads the Bears in rushing with 564 yards on 141 carries (4.0 ypc) and has four rushing TDs to share the team rushing TD lead with Roschon Johnson. WR DJ Moore leads the Bears in receptions with 40 while WR Rome Odunze leads in receiving yards with 414. Cole Kmet and Moore lead in TD catches with three each. T.J. Edwards has a team-high 72 tackles and Montez Sweat leads in tackles for loss with five. ... Gervon Dexter leads in sacks with 4.0. CB Jaylon Johnson is the Bears interceptions leader with two.

Injury Report: For the Packers, RB MarShawn Lloyd (ankle) and OL Jordan Morgan (shoulder) are out. DE Colby Wooden (shoulder) is doubtful. CB Jaire Alexander (knee) and DB Evan Williams (hamstring) are questionable.

BEARS AND PACKERS: WHO WINS AND WHY FOR WEEK 11

THE PLAYERS WHO GIVE BEARS A SHOT AT UPSETTING PACKERS.

BEARS AND PACKERS FANTASY FOOTBALL PLAYS AND NFL WEEK 11 PICKS

For the Bears, T Kiran Amegadjie (calf) and G Teven Jenkins (ankle) are out. S Tarvarius Moore (concussion) and DE Montez Sweat (ankle) are questionable. S Jaquan Brisker has been placed on IR.

Matching Up: The Packers are third on offense, seventh in passing and third at rushing. They are ninth in scoring. Green Bay is 12th on defense, 15th against the pass and 10th against the run. They are 11th in scoring defense.

The Bears are 30th on offense, 30th passing and 24th rushing. They are 24th in scoring. Chicago is 13th on defense, seventh against the pass and 24th against the run. The Bears are seventh in points allowed.

Of Note: The Bears lead the NFL in red zone defense, allowing 37.04% touchdowns. ... The Bears offense is next to last in converting third downs at 28.69%. ... Love threw for five TD passes against the Bears in two games last season, his first as starter. ... Williams, sacked nine time by the Patriots last week, has been sacked more times (38) than any NFL QB. ...  Packers dominance in this series goes back longer than the last 10 games under LaFleur. They have won 25 of 28. ... The Packers rank second in takeaways (19) and in scoring after takeaways (62). ... Joseph's five TD catches all came in the last six games.

Key Individual Matchups

Bears DE Montez Sweat vs. Packers T Zach Tom

Tom has ranked in the top 10 among tackles all year after a standout second season in 2023 while Sweat has been banged up lately with shin and ankle injuries. Sweat hasn’t had a sack since Oct. 27 and has 3 ½, second on the team, as he copes with more double-teams than he had seen in the past. Tom, who is 6-foot-4, 304 pounds, has given up one sack and has five penalties. PFF currently ranks him ninth among tackles.

Bears WR DJ Moore vs. Packers S Xavier McKinney

Moore will be on the side of the field much of the time against cornerback Keisean Nixon but if he wants to challenge the cover-3 based coverage Green Bay uses downfield, he’ll need to be going against NFL interceptions co-leader McKinney. Already McKinney has started trash talking about Moore’s incident when he left the field during a live pass play with an injury. Moore didn’t say much about the criticism but it was noted. Moore has been over 34 yards receiving in a game only once in the last six contests.

Bears DT Gervon Dexter vs. Packers LG Elgton Jenkins

This can also be RG Sean Rhyan, depending on which side is the strong side of the field. But normally it would be Dexter going against the veteran Packers do-it-all lineman, who has not enjoyed the type of season he has at other times in the past and is graded 49th of 77 NFL guards by Pro Football Focus. It’s a 6-5, 311-pound guard in his sixth season against the improving Dexter, who is in his second year and leads the Bears in sacks with four and is graded 23rd among 119 interior defensive linemen by PFF and 32nd against the run. If Dexter can achieve pressure inside, the Bears could get a consistent rush on Love and force turnovers. Dexter is also key as the 3-technique as a run stopper and finding a way to contain Josh Jacobs will be a major Bears goal.

Bears RT Darnell Wright vs. Packers DE Rashan Gary

Gary has become the best Packers pass rusher but is like the others in adjusting to the new scheme and hasn’t had standout PFF grades or big numbers. He is graded 50th among edge rushers and although he had 24 ½ sacks the previous three seasons, he has just 2 ½ this year. Wright is ranked ninth in the league by ESPN in run block win rate among tackles and is graded 42nd among 77 in pass block win rate. Wright is coming off a knee injury severe enough to keep him limited in practice until Friday, after he missed last week’s game.

Bears CB Kyler Gordon vs. Packers WR Jayden Reed

Gordon has made strides toward becoming one of the better slot cornerbacks and is graded by PFF 35th among 109 cornerbacks in the league against the pass, 47th overall. Reed, the Packers’ receptions and yards receiving leader, was a key playmaker against the Bears for the Packers offense last year in their games. He had six receptions for 160 yards in two games, including a 112-yard game on four catches in the regular-season finale. He’s coming off a 113-yard game against the Lions before the bye and is a receiver who hurts a team from many directions. As Eberflus says, LaFleur likes to use the whole field and frequently receivers away from the play or on the weakside of the field come back into play for bigger yardage after beating coverage. Reed is one of those capable of doing this.

Bears LB T.J. Edwards vs. Packers RB Josh Jacobs

The weakside linebacker gets to make plenty of tackles in this Bears scheme and is a key run defender in the gap. Edwards has only two missed tackles in 74 attempts. Jacobs comes at a defense with power and speed, but the best way for the Bears to stop him is to jam him up at the line and alter his path. He’s not a lateral back, although he can use a wicked jump-cut to escape the defensive front.

Twitter: BearsOnSI

Published
Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.