Has Ryan Poles Really Drafted Any Better than Ryan Pace?

Analysis: The Bears GM enters the critical month for all GMs needing smash successes to differentiate himself from past franchise personnel department failures.

It's Ryan Poles' big month at Halas Hall. / Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

April is the start of Ryan Poles month.

It's his show. Free agency is merely a matter of spending. The NFL Draft April 25-27 is where a personnel department gets its real chance to shine, and the Bears GM needs to come up with a more successful draft than he has in his first two years.

Perception in the NFL is the 2024 season is huge for coach Matt Eberflus. Correct or not, it's viewed as a hot seat type of year.

The reasoning is easy to understand. They've gone 3-14, then 7-10 and have dumped their starting quarterback for one from college.

Then again, they've dumped their starting quarterback for one from college and such transitions normally come off with problems. It takes a while. C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans transformation are not common.

It's important for Eberflus even if you don't believe in the hot seat theory and see him as buying an extra year for himself by going to a new offensive coordinator and new quarterback. It would set up 2025 for being the critical year in that case.

Ryan Poles needs to be under close scrutiny, as well.

It's not as if Poles has been a complete failure. He succeeded in a few important respects but there are some where he needs to produce better success.

What Poles needs is to produce a superstar, an immediate success, a Pro Bowl type of player or huge impact type anyway.

Caleb Williams is the player he'll apparently be banking on for this, as all indicators suggest he'll make the USC quarterback his first pick.

Poles' predecessor, Ryan Pace, will not go down as a smashing success. Compare what Poles has done as GM to Pace and it's easy to see Poles' record is not entirely better.

So far, what Poles has done well is draft players who can contribute as backups or play in a rotation.

Some of those players have been more successful than others. One of the 21 draft picks made was a specialist for special teams who has been average, punter Trenton Gill. So place him aside.

The 20 other players drafted include 11 backup types. Some might ascend this year to be starters or huge successes. No one can say for certain but what has happened is 10 had some type of supporting role.

Doug Kramer hasn't really had much of a chance to be a backup because of his rookie year injury but he was cut last year and was on a practice squad, was pilfered from it by the Cardinals and then returned. Either way, he hasn't had a role and can't be considered a backup. So he fits the category of failed picks closer than roster contributor.

Kendall Williamson was a draft pick last year who was cut and is a practice squad player and was watching other players picked up off the scrap heap. So he hasn't had a role. Zach Thomas actually did have a role but it was with the Rams after the Bears cut him and put him on the practice squad and was signed away. Players weren't drafted to become someone else's contributor so those players fall into the failed classification -- if they were successes they would have found a way off the practice squad onto the roster.

Poles has done an excellent job boosting Bears depth and providing players who might become starters. He hasn't produced players who step into camp and overwhelm with their talent to the degree that they're smash successes. Here are Poles' backup picks.

DT Gervon Dexter
CB Terell Smith
DT Zacch Pickens
RB Roschon Johnson
WR Tyler Scott
LB Noah Sewell
WR Velus Jones Jr.
DE Dominique Robinson
S Elijah Hicks
G Ja'Tyre Carter
C Doug Kramer

The starters he came up with right away are:

T Darnell Wright
CB Tyrique Stevenson
CB Kyler Gordon
S Jaquan Brisker
T Braxton Jones

Pace, on the other hand, selected one more starter in his first two drafts than Poles has. Actually, he drafted one quasi-starter more than Poles.

DT Eddie Goldman
C Hroniss Grasu
S Adrian Amos
OLB Leonard Floyd
G/C Cody Whitehair
RB Jordan Howard

Grasu started 14 games his first two seasons and suffered a bad knee injury that kept him from playing. Eventually he never proved worthy of starting status and was released but after two seasons they still had hope he might overcome the injuries and the number of starts can't be denied.

Poles pick Dominique Robinson started seven games in 2022 for the Bears but only after the trade of Robert Quinn and it didn't go well.

The big difference between the two GMs was the number of backup contributors, the emphasis on getting more picks and the total flop pick.
Pace's backups were half Poles' total. He had three fewer draft picks, too, but Poles generated many of his own picks in 2022 by trading back.

Pace's Backups:

RB Jeremy Langford
DE Jonathan Bullard
LB Nick Kwiatkowski
S Deon Bush
S DeAndre Houston-Carson

Hindsight enters into this picture because now we know that Langford, Bullard, Kwiatkoski, Bush and DHC never went on to become starters and you don't know what the fates of Poles' backups will be. However, he at least has gotten backup roles from those 10 players.

The other key point is how Kevin White bombed out so badly on Pace's first-ever pick.

Many blame his shin injury White had. Even when his subsequent injury issues are taken into account, White had plenty of time to become a successful player.

Even if he didn't get it done in Chicago, he had chances around the league and has proven he is a great athlete who isn't an NFL receiver. The injuries he suffered were not the ACL, career-ending types and he simply failed to develop. He was a classic bust pick.

Poles has avoided this type of pick, but now he needs the big score. He needs a huge immediate success somewhere in Year 3 to step forth as a GM who drafts well.

Pace has been a success making trades after learning the hard way with the Chase Claypool deal.

When given some cash in Year 2 and Year 3, he made signficant free agent signings.

When he came to the Bears, Poles introduced himself to Chicago.

"What am I about and what's my philosophy? We're gonna build through the draft," he said.

The point to separate himself from GMs who failed in the past has arrived. He'll have only four picks to do it and he needs to make them count.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven