High Bears Grade Fails to Cover for Shaky Analytics
![The Bears cut Cody Whitehair and one ESPN analyst called this one reason why he gave them a B+ and not something better. The Bears cut Cody Whitehair and one ESPN analyst called this one reason why he gave them a B+ and not something better.](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/c_crop,w_5472,h_3078,x_0,y_0/c_fill,w_720,ar_16:9,f_auto,q_auto,g_auto/images/ImagnImages/mmsport/bear_digest/01j0qafk4shtepc84q27.jpg)
Math is supposed to be the universal language.
Football analytics attempts to explain a violent, explosive game through numbers, but it seems they might need an interpreter over at ESPN.
Seth Walder of ESPN analytics put out his grades on every team's offseason and the Bears came in with a B+ grade, which shouldn't cause any complaints in Chicago. They did get graded by Walder worse than the Eagles (A), Chiefs (A-), Chargers (A-), Dolphins (A-) and Patriots (A-), while tying the Browns, Colts and Jets.
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At least they were ahead of their NFC North rivals, the Packers (B-), Lions (C) and Vikings (C-).
Part of Walder's reason for not giving the Bears an A grade stemmed from their signing of running back D'Andre Swift.
Walder said the deal was $14 million guaranteed, which it isn't. It's actually more, considering $1.5 million more is added as a roster bonus. But that's all misleading as the $14 million is actually over a three-year deal and he's only counting $5.8 million this year against the salary cap.
Caleb Williams has changed the whole VIBE for the @ChicagoBears @dmillerabc7 @PatTheDesigner
â ESPN 1000 (@ESPN1000) June 14, 2024
full convo: https://t.co/T0bcKiOJbb pic.twitter.com/qLKKZ5YDjw
This was a good deal for the Bears, especially for a back who has been a starter for two teams and has been effective with a 4.6-yard career average per carry.
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Then Walder got into the real reason he doesn't like the signing of Swift, and that's how he had a minus-65 rushing yards over expectation per NFL Next Gen Stats.
They should get lower expectations, then.
Swift wasn't the best running back in free agency but the deal he got was commensurate with his production over four NFL seasons and a contrived metric like rushing yards over expectation counts for nothing when the Eagles decided they were going with shared rushing duties rather than leaning on Swift.
Another complaint lodged was how the Bears cut guard Cody Whitehair. Walder didn't like the fact they got rid of a player he said was sixth in pass block win rate last season, by ESPN analytics.
So which analytics is right, ESPN or Pro Football Focus?
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â Clay Harbor (@clayharbs82) June 19, 2024
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PFF had Whitehair graded 52nd out of all guards at pass blocking. A guard who is sixth in pass block win rate does not finish 52nd in pass blocking at the position. Someone has it all wrong here.
The final call on this one has to go to reality and not contrived numbers on a sheet. Whitehair's play was poor enough last year that the Bears actually benched him.
Someone needs a new calculator.
"The Bears cut guard Cody Whitehairâwho signed with the Raiders on an inexpensive dealâdespite him finishing sixth in pass block win rate last season," Walder wrote.
What does an inexpensive deal tell you?
if games ended after 3 quarters...
â Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) June 19, 2024
the Chicago Bears would have been 10-6-1 (.625) last year
the #8 most wins in the NFL
they outgained their opponents by 430 yards thru 3 quarters...
and ranked #10 in total line of scrimmage EPA (offense + defense) thru 3 quarters
The numbers guy should be able to understand this: Whitehair was going to count about $14 million against the Bears cap this year. And he had been benched. That's why he was cut.
The Bears ultimately did get the B+ from ESPN and the Keenan Allen move was applauded "...even as a one-year rental," Walder wrote.
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Maybe with a little more research on Whitehair, this one goes for an A grade.
And someone needs to worry about how much money Swift got a little less.
Running backs have been underpaid way too much in recent years and this wasn't even one of the best contracts paid to a back. Give a guy a break.
Reminder that Eberflus has changed the culture of this team from being a dumpster fire 2 years ago.
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Guys love playing for him and being Chicago Bears now.
Grateful for Coach Flus đ€ pic.twitter.com/ZchKi0nVPM
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