Bear Digest

Is It Time for Fantasy Owners to Punch the Caleb Williams Button?

Who to sit and who to start from the Bears-Jaguars game in fantasy football as well as best bets and picks against the spread on all NFL games.

Gene Chamberlain

Caleb Williams gets the opportunity to throw against the worst pass defense in the NFL, a good reason for a fantasy start.
Caleb Williams gets the opportunity to throw against the worst pass defense in the NFL, a good reason for a fantasy start. / Daniel Bartel-Imagn Images
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The problem with Caleb Williams for fantasy football owners is there were so many other quarterback options for their draft to ever consider using good picks on a rookie—even if he was the No. 1 pick in the draft.

The best Williams brought to most fantasy owners was a backup QB for their team or someone on the waiver wire list to sign in the future if he develops.

It's time, say fantasy analysts.

SI.com fantasy expert Michael Fabriano thinks it's a week for someone to benefit from putting Williams into their lineup.

The logic is sound.

"Fantasy managers will be without their Chiefs, Dolphins, Rams and Vikings players this week," Fabiano wrote this week, pointing out it's bye week for teams with big-time passers, although Tua Tagovailoa isn't able to play yet. "So you'll likely need to move some reserves into your starting lineups."

And the reserve to look at is Williams, who probably isn't in many fantasy lineups or and might even be available to pick up in many fantasy leagues.

Going against the worst pass defense in the NFL this week is not sufficient reason for such a move in and of itself, but it is a reason. Jaguars safeties struggle. The cornerbacks have only been so-so. Jacksonville has done a decent job stopping the run, which is all the more reason to pass against the Jaguar.

SI.COM FANTASY FOOTBALL ADVICE

It sets up well for playing Williams or picking him up to start him if he's not on a team in your league.

Here are the players to start and sit from this week's Bears-Jaguars game.

Start 'Em

1. Bears WR DJ Moore

Moore gets his big games in bunches and exploiting two struggling deep safeties rated in the bottom 10% of the league by Pro Football Focus. Think more catches than last week and more than 105 yards. More than two TDs? That doesn't happen very often.

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2. Bears WR Keenan Allen

This is it. The breakout game in a Bears uniform. If he's still rotting on your bench, dust him off. If he's available, sign him. The threat of too many good receivers capable of taking the lid off an atrocious Jaguars pass defense lets Allen operate at will underneath. He's a zone wizard and that's the Jaguars' defensive lean.

3. Jaguars RB Tank Bigsby

The Bears run defense is good for one or two big gains allowed and Bigsby leads the NFL in yards per rush (8.0). They'll find a way to corral Bigsby eventually, after their own offense has piled up points. But by then the fantasy owners who have Bigsby will be happy.

4. Bears QB Caleb Williams

It's true only Trevor Lawrence has won a start as a rookie in these NFL/London games but there have been only six rookies start and they all have been playing with bad teams. Williams and the Bears shouldn't have to face much of a noise problem even if the Jaguars are an adopted team for London. That's because the Bears are incredibly popular in London, too. As long as Williams isn't forcing things, the weak pass defense is there for him to burn.

5. Bears TE Cole Kmet

You've got Devin Lloyd with a knee injury and the other Jaguars linebackers have yet to distinguish themselves against the pass. Look for Kmet to get some screen work this week. The one they ran to him last week worked perfectly.

6. Jaguars WR Christian Kirk

Forget about Brian Allen Jr. because that kind of speed will have Jaylon Johnson's attention. Stopping Kirk with two starters out in the secondary won't be easy but they should do enough of it to slow the Jacksonville attack.

7. Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence

The tendency is to look to him for a lot of makeup yardage and even scores and to start him after a 371-yard effort last week. Sure, the Bears are down some DBs, but it didn't bother them last year when this happened. In fact, they were even more effective in the secondary when depleted. Lawrence has not really had a good season until that one game last week and the Bears secondary is a step up even with players missing. All that said, if the Bears get ahead then the underneath yardage will be there.

Sit 'Em

1. Jaguars RB Travis Etienne

It seems the down arrow is working with Etienne because the arrow is definitely pointing up for Bigsby. Two backs flourishing at the same time for fantasy football purposes doesn't work, and it's not going to work in a game against the Bears defense.

2. Jaguars WR Brian Thomas Jr.

Jaylon Johnson hasn't failed to shut down a receiver in the last two years yet.

3. Jaguars TE Evan Engram

He's just getting back after being out since the opener with a hamstring injury. What a week to come back. Their practice schedule was all fouled up due to the hurricane and the departure that turned out coming late. Engram will get a few catches but most likely will not be a factor until he works his way in and doing it against the coverage provided by Bears linebackers isn't easy.

4. Bears WR Rome Odunze

He has faded back into the shadows for now with Moore hot. Too many targets are available for them to focus on getting Odunze the ball. He'll need to get wide open to get the ball. And when he does, there's no guarantee he'll get it. Last week it happened and he wasn't seen by Williams.

5. Bears RB D'Andre Swift

Two straight solid all-around games, and Swift could make an impact as a receiver again but he's not running into wide open spaces this week with the Jaguars ranked eighth against the run. More important than that is how Shane Waldron will be the one to shut him down. Waldron needs no invitation to abandon the running game. Seeing the Jaguars' porous pass defense will tell him to toss running out the window and chuck it all over England.

Defense

The Jaguars had 37 last week and the Bears 36. The Bears might have one of the highest ranked defenses but they're not healthy. This isn't going to be the kind of defensive struggle to get someone to start either defense. In IDP leagues, Montez Sweat had one good game against the Jaguars in the past. It could be his day considering he faces Anton Harrison, the Jaguars' lowest graded offensive lineman. But Harrison will get help.

The Betting Window

Play of the Week: The over on Keenan Allen receiving yards at 44 1/2.

Bears On SI Record in Bears Games: 5-0 straight up, 4-1 against the spread, 4-1 over/under.

This Week's Bears Line: Bears by 1 1/2 (Over/under 44 1/2)

Bears On SI Pick: Bears 23, Jaguars 20

Last Week Around the NFL: 8-5 straight up, 7-5-1 ATS, 1-3 power plays

Around the NFL to Date: 45-31 straight up, 42-32-2 ATS, 8-12 power plays

This Week's Lines and NFL Picks

  • Commanders +6 1/2 at Ravens: Ravens 41, Commanders 27
  • Buccaneers -3 1/2 at Saints: Buccaneers 21, Saints 17
  • Browns +9 1/2 at Eagles: Eagles 20, Browns 13
  • Colts +2 1/2 at Titans: Titans 27, Colts 24
  • Texans -6 1/2 at Patriots: Texans 31, Patriots 14*
  • Cardinals +5 1/2 at Packers: Packers 37, Cardinals 23*
  • Chargers -3 at Broncos: Chargers 17, Broncos 13*
  • Steelers -3 at Raiders: Steelers 20, Raiders 10
  • Falcons -6 1/2 at Panthers: Falcons 28, Panthers 20*
  • Lions -3 at Cowboys: Lions 34, Cowboys 30
  • Bengals -3 1/2 at Giants: Bengals 27, Giants 24
  • Bills -2 1/2 at Jets: Bills 23, Jets 19
  • Broncos -1 at Saints**: Saints 17, Broncos 14

**Thursday Night Game Week 7

*Power Play

-Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

-If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER

Twitter: BearsOnSI

Published
Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.