Bear Digest

Lions Who Should Worry Bears the Most on Thanksgiving

Scouting Out Detroit: It's a more complete Detroit team facing the Bears Thursday on a short work week, one with a greater defensive presence now hitting full stride.

Gene Chamberlain

Amon-Ra St. Brown is in for the touchdown last season against the Bears in a 31-26 Detroit win.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is in for the touchdown last season against the Bears in a 31-26 Detroit win. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK
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When the Bears faced the Lions any time in recent memory, even if their offense was struggling they knew they could remain competitive or win for one simple fact.

Until Detroit got Aidan Hutchinson, the Lions had virtually no defense. Even after his arrival, he was only one player.

Times have changed and the Bears run up against a team suddenly crushing opponents because its offense remains in high gear while the defense is coming into its own. It's going to make Caleb Williams' task a difficult one.

"So on offense they present a lot of issues for you in the run and the pass, and in situational football," Bears coach Matt Eberflus said. "And on defense I think they haven’t given up a touchdown in the last 12 quarters."

Actually, it's been 10 but that's impressive enough. The last TD allowed was three games ago when John Metchie caught a 15-yard C.J. Stroud pass in the second quarter.

From there, the Lions have gone on to allow two field goals each of the last two games and nothing else.

"They've been playing really well," Ebeflus said. "They've had some guys injured and all those things but they continue to play well and at a high rate."

Hutchinson was their chief injury, a devastating one but they've overcome it.

Here are the Lions who can cause the Bears the most problem on Thanksgiving, and for a change there are actually defensive players involved beyond Hutchinson.

1. Amon-Ra St. Brown

His catch total is down a bit yardage-wise from years past with more balance coming to the offense but there's no doubt he's still their sure thing. It's tough to stop a slot receiver who could line up all across the formation and Kyler Gordon will be challenged when he's lining up inside. St. Brown amped it up against Jacksonville two weeks ago with 11 receptions for 161 yards and two touchdowns, in case anyone forgot who he is. Last week ended a streak of eight straight games with touchdown catches for the fourth-year player. His 67.9 yards a game is his lowest average since his rookie year but his catch percentage is at a career high of 83.5% and his success rate is far higher than it's ever been (75.3%).

2. QB Jared Goff

The Lions QB does not rank in the top 20 for average intended air yards and is 29th in average intended air yards per attempt, indicating the short throws and yards after the catch by wide open receivers is how Detroit gets its yardage. Goff is second in the league in yards gained after the catch (1,605), and by far No. 1 in YAC per completion at 7.2, .3 yards ahead of Lamar Jackson. They're throwing to everyone short with teams fearing they'll be beaten deep. And the underneath catches get blocked well for yardage and first downs. It's a safe, simple formula and one that can win a Super Bowl. This one is indoors so the Lions don't need to fear the Soldier Field cold with Goff Thursday. His record for playing in bad weather is abysmal.

3. RB Jahmyr Gibbs

The lightning part of their thunder-and-lightning attack, Gibbs' speed has left him only 114 yards from 1,000 for the year and he'll go over his rookie year production with 60 yards in this game. Gibbs has had the bulk of the carries this year instead of playing as only the counter punch to David Montgomery and the threat he brings as a receiver is a 10.2-yard average per catch, extremely high for a running back.

4. T Penei Sewell

The Lions' most impressive weapon is their offensive line and Sewell is possibly the best player on the entire team. The 6-foot-5, 335-pound, fourth-year player graded fourth this year among tackles by Pro Football Focus and second blocking the run. He hasn't allowed a sack, has given up two QB hits and has committed three penalties.

5. S Kerby Joseph

The Lions' top pass defender, PFF says the third-year former Illini standout is the top safety in the league this year overall and as a pass defender. Joseph's first two years were respectable but he's taken a huge leap forward.

He's usually at free safety but has been in the box about 40% of the time and even lined up 87 plays in slot coverage. He's one of the main reasons Detroit has given up the fewest passing touchdowns in the league (7). He has seven interceptions, nine pass defenses and Stathead/Pro Football Reference gives him a 21.2 passer rating when teams target him with only 11 completions allowed in 26 targets for 5.6 yards a target.

6. DT Alim McNeill

The Lions used to be a joke on the interior of the defensive line but McNeill has risen to dominant status, rating fifth overall according to PFF. He even helped their pass rush after Hutchinson was out, and before they acquired Za'Darius Smith. Getting DJ Reader to play at tackle this year enhanced his ability. The 6-2, 315-pounder has four sacks and 36 pressures according to PFF. He's at his best in the B-gap as the 3-technique.

7. LB Jack Campbell

He's made a significant step forward in his second year out of Iowa and is graded 11th best linebacker by PFF, a real asset in run defense but also improved as a coverage linebacker as he's graded 15th among 77 PFF grades. At 6-5, 243, he is their leading tackler and can drop in zone or come up as the downhill run stuffer.

8. TE Sam LaPorta

They haven't had to lean on him as much in his second year but when they have he has been able to gain more yardage after the catch or catch it downfield more as his yards per reception is up significantly (13.8) over his rookie year (10.3), but he's averaging about 14 yards less. Part of that is being able to rely more on wide receiver Jameson Williams as a target this year.

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9. S Brian Branch

He made a big splash as the slot cornerback as a rookie and has moved to safety now, where he's making an even larger impact. Branch has four interceptions and a 34.2 passer rating against when targeted, according to Pro Football Reference/Stathead. Trying to throw deep on the Lions with Branch and Joseph on the field is pretty much useless.

10. RB David Montgomery

Montgomery's carries are down this year at 145 for 11 games but his success rate is the highest of his career (57.2%) and his yards per attempt is healthy at 4.4 after he couldn't get to 4.0 behind the Bears' line. Still the power and short-yardage option, he also is averaging a career-best 10 yards per reception with 24 catches as defenses try to stop St. Brown, Williams and LaPorta.

Twitter: BearsOnSI

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.