Bear Digest

More Skepticism Over the Bears' Playoff Chances from ESPN

Analysis: Ranking of Bears roster has them mired in middle of the league, with Caleb Williams' success or failure viewed as the top deciding factor for this season.

Gene Chamberlain

Caleb Williams' success or failure as a rookie is called by ESPN the overriding factor in determing the Bears' record.
Caleb Williams' success or failure as a rookie is called by ESPN the overriding factor in determing the Bears' record. / Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
In this story:

The optimism Bears fans feel with a revamped offense and new quarterback remains a feeling not shared by many analysts.

Last month Pro Football Focus had called the Bears roster the 20th best in the league and now ESPN's analysts have put them in the bottom half of the league, as well--barely.

They rank 17th in the view of ESPN and the chief reasons are the problems pointed out by many all offseason and those are Caleb Williams being a rookie quarterback and the one-man defensive line.

The defensive line is labeled their biggest weakness by analyst Mike Clay, who pointed to their wide receiver group, with DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze, as their greatest strength and chief reason for optimism.

Clay's comment about their defensive line actually gives them credit for being better than they were last year.

"Consider: Sweat had 12.5 sacks last season, whereas every other lineman on the roster combined for 9.0," Clay wrote.

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The thing is, Sweat only had six of those 12.5 sacks in Chicago and they didn't have nine sacks from the other defensive linemen. They had 17 1/2. But the players besides Sweat who remain from last year's line actually had only seven sacks and not nine—3 1/2 by DeMarcus Walker, 2 1/2 by Gervon Dexter and half a sack each by Zacch Pickens and Dominique Robinson.

So they're actually even worse than last year unless there is improvement by second-year players Dexter and Pickens and second-year Bears defensive end Walker.

The X-factor is a player or quality that has a strong, unpredictable influence on success or failure. However, Williams does not qualify as the X-factor because he IS being counted on to run the offense and key their success. An X-factor would be a player more like Roschon Johnson, who has displayed skills but would surprise people if he stepped up in Year 2. Pro Football Focus has called Darnell Wright their X-factor on offense, as they see him surprising everyone by rising to dominant status.

Sports Illustrated's Matt Verderame sees Johnson as the Bears breakout player to watch, or essentially the X-factor, because he is largely "forgotten" but capable of stepping into the starting spot this year at some point.

As for Williams, Walder does explain why he is viewed as an X-factor by ESPN.

"If he can hit the ground running in the NFL then the upside for this team is high because of all the parts around him on offense but the team won't run without him, and so that roster will be for naught if he comes along slowly," Walder said.

That sounds like the player who IS the key to their season and roster, and not an X-factor.

Whatever you want to call him, Williams is going to decide their ultimate success or failure and ESPN is right there with PFF saying the Bears are the third-best team in the NFC North and unlikely to be a playoff team.

Considering the Bears had undeniably the NFL's worst roster in 2022, by ESPN's assessment GM Ryan Poles has brought them halfway in two years.

In two more years could they be at the top?

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.