Bear Digest

Most Immediately Impactful Bears Pick at No. 9 Is Obvious

Analysis: There is one position available to the Bears at pick No. 9 capable of making the fastest and greatest impact.

Gene Chamberlain

Rome Odunze breaks away after a catch for Washington last season.
Rome Odunze breaks away after a catch for Washington last season. / Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
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The NFL, as Jerry Glanville appropriately reminded when NFL Films put a mic on him for one game, stands for Not for Long.

The description works in so many ways.

Players aren't in the league long. Coaches aren't either. Players make mistakes and they won't be around for long and everything changes rapidly. Teams want rapid return on their draft picks.

Everything happens rapidly in the NFL: Not For Long. With the Bears facing a big decision at No. 9 in Round 1, they'd like a player who makes an immediate impact. They need immediate impact.

The decision comes down to an edge rusher or a wide receiver.

It's the main reason wide receiver Rome Odunze's top-30 visit today with the Bears is so important.

Taking the second-best tackle to play on the left side would no doubt improve their offensive line overall, but they have two well-functioning tackles and it's questionable how much better a first-round tackle can immediately make them. It would be the second-best tackle because Joe Alt will not slide to No. 9.

The Bears have already visited with Dallas Turner, most likely the top edge rusher. There are no reports of Jared Verse or Laiatu Latu visiting yet but this doesn't mean they lack interest in those edge rushers. Chop Robinson has a top 30 coming in Chicago.

There is more than one position on the defensive line capable of making an impact and the Bears can use a 3-technique tackle, but immediate impact is the goal. The only defensive tackle in last year's draft who made more than the 4.5 sacks the Bears got from their own former 3-technique, Justin Jones, was Jalen Carter. He had six sacks.

Even the most ardent Texas Longhorns fan is not going to tell anyone defensive tackle Byron Murphy II is better than Carter, who was picked ninth overall last year. Illinois' Johnny Newton is a potential first-rounder at DT, too, but not No. 9. Thoses are tradeback players.

If the Bears wanted 4 1/2 sacks this year from a defensive tackle with the ninth pick overall, they could have simply brought back Jones at about $10 million a year. They want immediate and real impact at No. 9.

At defensive end, they might not need to use the ninth pick to get immediate impact. After all, they had 4 1/2 sacks from their own starting right defensive end DeMarcus Walker, and four sacks by Yannick Ngakoue when he was still healthy. As a team, they had only 30 sacks, good for next to last in the league.

There were five players in last year's draft who made more than 4 1/2 sacks and only three were edge rushers. Byron Young and YaYa Diaby, were two of them and were taken in Round 3. Will Turner was the only pick made in the top nine on the edge who made more than 4 1/2 sacks.

This was only one year, you might argue. But the previous year the first pick in the draft was edge player Travon Walker by Jacksonville and he made 3 1/2 sacks as a rookie. The only edge taken in the top 10 who made at least 4 1/2 sacks that year was Aidan Hutchinson. There are no Hutchinsons in this draft class.

The only other first-round edge who had at least 4 1/2 sacks from the 2022 draft was Kansas City's George Karlaftis, who had six. There were players later in the draft who managed that total. Tops among them was sixth-rounder James Houston of the Lions, who had eight.

Edge rushers not chosen early—and some who are—take some time to become a force. There are 10 players drafted in 2022 who didn't get to 4 1/2 sacks but now have 10 or more sacks for their career.
It's possible the top three wide receivers will be gone by No. 9 and this would make the decision an easier one, although Brian Thomas Jr. of LSU has made a strong case for being considered right with Odunze, Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison Jr. as top 10 talent.

Last year was an off year for receivers in terms of first-round talent as none were taken in the top 10 and only one in the top 20. However, the first-round receivers drafted averaged 62 receptions, 707 yards and 5.25 touchdowns as rookies.

The previous year more closely resembled this year's group of receivers, with four going in the top 12. One was Jameson Williams, who suffered an injury that kept him from making any type of impact. However, the other three were Drake London (72 catches, 866 yards, 4 TDs), Garrett Wilson (83 catches, 1,103 yards, 4 TDs) and Chris Olave (72 catches, 1,042 yards, 4 TDs).

Olave did this with Andy Dalton as quarterback. Wilson did it with Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco and Mike White at quarterback. London did it with Marcus Mariota at quarterback.

Include two of the other three taken in Round 1, and not Jameson Williams due to his rookie injury. The first-rounders averaged 59 catches for 795 yards and five TDs.

It's fairly obvious where the chances of gaining an immediate impact from a draft pick are going to be. It's not going to be at edge rusher or tackle, unless they drafted the absolute best tackle.

The best chances will be with wide receiver No. 3, maybe even No. 4, from a group at least as talented overall as the 2022 wide receiver crop.

It's why today's visit by Odunze to Halas Hall is important.

It's why the Bears already seem to have made a tremendous mistake. They've set themselves up with a greater need at edge rusher and defensive tackle than at wide receiver. They have holes at starting positions on defense at both end and tackle. But they acquired Keenan Allen so their need at this position is for No. 3 receiver.

Yet, four of the top 12 players should be wide receivers in this draft.

NFL still stands for not for long and it applies to coaches as well as GMs.

If you want the most immediately impactful pick in a draft class full of talented wide receivers, the best way to go is with the wide receiver. In this case, it's Odunze because the other two will be gone first.

The teams who take them will realize this. The Bears should realize this fact, as well.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven

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Gene Chamberlain

GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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