Projecting Allen Robinson's 2020 Numbers Can Be One Tough Call

The Bears' moves to create more big plays on offense, and Allen Robinson's abilities even in difficult circumstances make it difficult forecasting a stat line or what kind of contract he'll get in 2020.

Allen Robinson displayed patience with his contract situation earlier this month when speaking with media, saying it wasn't of immediate concern so he wasn't much for discussing it.

Considering the difficult circumstances Robinson has faced throughout his career, like a torn ACL in 2017, he has every right to be entirely impatient about a contract extension. 

Yet he shows remarkable patience, more than any player could be expected to have.  

Robinson's entire career production of 355 receptions for 4,739 yards and 33 touchdowns has been achieved with Blake Bortles, Chad Henne, Mitchell Trubisky or Chase Daniel at quarterback.

When Robinson was in Jacksonville, Bortles never completed more than 58.9% of his passes. He wasn't even close to what Trubisky has done percentage-wise. The only acceptable passer rating Bortles had came in 2015 when he was at 88.2, and Robinson made 80 catches for 1,400 yards then.

With the Bears last year, Robinson managed 98 catches for 1,147 yards with a quarterback who had an 83.0 passer rating.

Two or even three additions to the Bears' roster figure to make Robinson's figures look much different in the future and this could greatly impact what kind of deal he should get. 

It can also impact how the average fantasy football player should treat Robinson in a draft.

If Robinson signs a contract now, his deal is based on projections off what has happened when he chased passes from less effective passers and with less complementary help from the Bears receiver corps. 

Waiting it out and demanding more could benefit him. 

Then again, the Bears can always bring out statistics showing Robinson's inability to gain yards after the catch or make bigger plays downfield as counters to drive down the cost. It could all work both ways, but at least it might all change this year stat-wise.

Robinson has a chance now to track down passes from a Super Bowl MVP who has had sporadic play in his career. But Nick Foles has been the most effective in his career in this offensive system with some of these coaches. So Robinson's numbers could skyrocket or change in different ways, and it's possible this could—or should—alter his money. 

Pro Football Focus has calculated Robinson is No. 3 in contested receptions over his two Bears seasons, with 40. Only Kenny Golladay and Julio Jones were better.  

This has been a problem. Robinson gets no yards after the catch because virtually every catch he makes is heavily contested and he still makes them.

He also was the best in the league against man-to-man coverage, better even than Michael Thomas, at 79.3% completions according to Yahoo sports analyst Matt Harmon.

The Bears didn't have a deep threat the last two years who could stretch a field consistently and occupy defenses enough to give Robinson occasional running room after a catch. He's looked more like a tight end, with DBs draped on his back all the time. The only season he had without this problem came in that 2015 season when he managed 1,400 yards.

The Bears replaced Taylor Gabriel with a 35-year-old wide receiver, Ted Ginn Jr., and a rookie, Darnell Mooney. Is this speed that can open up some room for Robinson to catch passes without two or three defensive backs fitting inside his jersey?

Bears receivers coach Mike Furrey calls it a possibility after hearing what Ginn said upon his arrival.

"He sat in our meeting Day 1 and said, 'Listen, here's what I'm coming to do. I'm coming to help Allen Robinson be one of the best players in the league, and I'm coming to win a Super Bowl,' " Furrey recalled. " 'That's it. That's my job. I'm going to show up every day and if they tell me to run a go ball and clear out for Allen Robinson, it's going to be the fastest go ball you've ever seen in your entire life.' "

Whether Ginn retains enough of his world class speed or Mooney could do it as a rookie remain unproven.  

So possibly catching passes from Foles and having a deep threat counter on the other side of the field could change Robinson's statistics greatly.

Another factor is the change at tight end. With Jimmy Graham, Cole Kmet or Demetrius Harris, the potential exists for more tight end production than the gang of six tight ends who caught a handful of throws for the Bears last year.

Another year of experience for Anthony Miller can help open up the secondary, as well.

Is it possible Miller and the other receivers could do for Robinson what Allen Hurns did in 2015 in Jacksonville? Even with Bortles at quarterback, Hurns was good enough to go over 1,000 receiving yards and Robinson hit 1,400.

According to Pro Football Network, Trubisky and Daniel had a 93.2 passer rating last year throwing to Robinson and 80 throwing elsewhere. If throws go with better efficiency to others, how much does it diminish or improve his numbers?

Robinson could then get fewer catches and far more yardage than in the past.

Then again, it all could look much like last year if Trubisky wins the battle, Ginn can't deliver and critics' claims prove correct about Graham's skills being eroded to the level of your average 40-year-old.

Robinson's skills as a receiver at going up for passes or grabbing a slant with a defensive back draped over his back are are unquestionably among the league's best.  

He's been a victim of circumstance when it comes to displaying other abilities, and how the Bears reward him going forward can be a difficult matter to gauge. 

It also requires fantasy players to consider a leap of faith because Robinson could be more than a WR2 if he simply gets the help from others he's lacked.

What's less difficult to gauge is his effort regardless of what happens, or his intense drive to persevere.

Allen Robinson at a Glance

WR Penn State

Height: 6-foot-2

Weight: 220

Key Numbers: Allen Robinson finished third in first-down receptions made on third-down plays with 26. Only Cooper Kupp (29) and Julio Jones (27) were better. Robinson tied for the league lead on first-down catches made on third-and-3 or shorter with six.

Pro Bowl Chances: 3.5 on a scale of 1-5, 5 being highest.

2020 Projection: 85 receptions, 1,230 yards, 9 TDs.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven