How the Bears Will Go 8-9

The Bears won't have a winning record against their 2023 schedule but it's sure going to look a lot better than 3-14.

The Bears laid their foundation last year, they say.

It's not realistic to think they're going to complete their rebuilding project in one season, and it will become apparent shortly after the season starts.

The Bears are at least a year behind where the other great reconstruction project in the division is, the Detroit Lions. They might even be half a season more behind.

GM Ryan Poles had to gut their salary cap last year rather than step right in and begin rebuilding. Poles had to cope with seven years of rot first. The Lions were in a constant state of rebuild so it could come quicker for this regime in Detroit. 

So the lineup the Bears will put on the field on both sides of the football will be entirely different than what they were using last year. That's the kind of thing you look for with first-year rebuilds but as stated, cap dumping occurred first.

With all the change comes chances for mistakes.

Lineup continuity lends itself to execution and the Bears will need this season to build up the level of cohesiveness they need to be effective.

Here's how they'll do at it, a week-by-week prediction of the 2023 Bears season.

Week 1 Win: Bears 19, Packers 12

This should be a very ugly game. The Bears have thrown together a bunch of new players. The Packers lost Aaron Rodgers and are using inexperienced quarterback Jordan Love. When in doubt go with the home-field edge and Justin Fields' experience winning a season opener.

Week 2 Win: Bears 20, Buccaneers 14

Going down to Tampa's heat in mid-Semptember should be tough but nowhere as tough as a bit later on because at this point the Bears are still used to the heat themselves. Tampa Bay is another team with quarterback issues. They've got other problems as the coaching staff isn't as effective as when Bruce Arians ran things, and some defensive stars are aging. Another win.

Week 3 Loss: Chiefs 31, Bears 17

A second straight road game is always tough. Letting Matt Nagy gets his revenge is even tougher. It's questionable whether Nagy would even be calling the plays at this point, two games into the season. Andy Reid might have full control by then. But the Bears are not at a level where they can go on the road and beat the world champions whoever is calling Kansas City plays, because Patrick Mahomes' brillance will rule the day.

Week 4 Loss: Broncos 27, Bears 17

Russell Wilson can't possibly be as bad as he looked last year. Blame it on the coaching. Sean Payton won't have the same issues in Denver and he'll have a way to pick apart the Tampa-2 look the Bears use at Soldier Field.

Week 5 Loss: Commanders 19, Bears 13

A Thursday Night Football rematch, and the Bears aren't ready for prime time or Prime network. The Commanders defensive front is formidable. With only a few days for the Bears to get ready to play a road game on Thursday night, the offense will make more mistakes than any time this season.

Week 6 Win: Bears 23, Vikings 20

The Vikings have built up a great offensive arsenal but will discover the Bears defense no longer needs to tell Jaylon Johnson to wear himself out chasing Jefferson all over the field. They have competent cornerbacks at every spot. A tight Bears home game comes down to a big running play by Fields at the end. The Vikings' big-play offense isn't as good on grass and they should have rebuilt their defense more when they had the chance.

Week 7 Win: Bears 26, Raiders 13

This is about the time of year when the Raiders are talking about firing Josh McDaniels. The Bears had so many lineup changes, it's taken six games to blend everyone but it should be full go from now on and results in a comfortable win at home over a bad franchise.

Week 8 Loss: Chargers 34, Bears 26

At Sofi in a Sunday Night Football game, the Bears defense will see what a brilliant pocket passer looks like as the ball gets out of his hand on time all the time. Justin Herbert is at another level, just below Mahomes. The Chargers have the offense to be back in the playoffs again, home field, and the night game atmosphere should wake up their disinterested L.A. fans.

Week 9 Win: Bears 24, Saints 20

The Saints added Derek Carr but quarterback isn't their only problem. They've lost too much over the last few years in speed and athleticism on both sides of the ball due to cap mismanagement. The Bears are overdue for a win over New Orleans  after seven straight losses dating back to 2011.  

Week 10 Win: Bears 27, Panthers 17

Now the Thursday night scenario has reversed and it's the Bears with a little more time for preparation while Carolina rookie QB Bryce Young finds winning without practice in hostile Chicago at night a little too tough. Tom Brady couldn't do it a few years ago and he won't, either. Expect a big night from DJ Moore as he makes the Panthers pay for trading him to the Bears, a move he didn't really anticipate.

Week 11 Loss: Lions 31, Bears 17

The Bears are better than last year when they got blown out 41-10 at Detroit but not enough to go toe to toe with a team that could be on track for a 12- or 13-win season. The Lions offensive line can still dominate the line of scrimmage against a Bears defense that has strong linebackers but inexperienced defensive linemen coupled with mediocre ones.

Week 12 Loss: Vikings 28, Bears 20

The loss a few weeks earlier in Chicago won't sit well with the Vikings, who should actually bring back their mascot on the motorcycle, Ragnar, if they want to improve their team. Jefferson is more difficult to cover on artificial turf and the Vikings offense is at its best in the dome in front of friendlies for a night game.

Week 13: Bye

A second straight late bye for the Bears. Bummer.

Week 14 Loss: Lions 24, Bears 20

A stretch of tough games isn't made much easier in Chicago for the Bears as David Montgomery comes home to Soldier Field and goes for over 100 yards and a couple of touchdowns. He's just the kind of back to hurt the Bears' one-gap defensive front because he can make people miss or run through the first tackler, breaking down the scheme.

Week 15 Loss: Browns 28, Bears 10

There's something about going to Cleveland to play that defense which brings out the worst in Justin Fields. Well, last time it was Nagy's game plan without anyone picking up the blitzes that brought out the worst in Justin Fields. This time it will simply be Myles Garrett going to work on the two young Bears tackles. Expect Deshaun Watson to be resurgent now as he knows the offense better. Cleveland should have a rebound season.

Week 16 Win: Bears 31, Cardinals 13

Bear weather isn't a myth, but it's overrated. When it does actually work is when one of the worst teams in the league, with nothing to play for, comes from the desert to the frost in Chicago on Christmas Eve. Kyler Murray should just bury himself in a blanket on the sidelines as the Bears romp.

Week 17 Win: Bears 21, Falcons 13

The Falcons, with Bijan Robinson and all their offensive weapons, are clearly formidable in their dome. Put them outside in the New Year's Eve cold and their finesse lineup freezes up. The Bears trio of Roschon Johnson, D'Onte Foreman and Khalil Herbert should be able to take the pressure off Fields in this one with the running game. Moore has plenty of experience embarrassing the Atlanta defense in divisional games for Carolina. So Fields won't need to carry the offense and get beaten up like he did in the game at Atlanta last year.

Week 18 Loss: Packers 17, Bears 16

At this point, an 8-8 record is going to have the Bears eliminated even in the mediocre NFC. They'll go to Green Bay with a little less incentive than in the opener. Love will rely on Aaron Jones and the ground attack as well as his team's strong defense to pull out a tight, low-scoring struggle. It could be as ugly as the season opener. 

The Bears finish 8-9. It's not great, or even .500, but it sure is trending up compared to last January.

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