Bear Digest

Bears and Panthers: Best Bets and Fantasy Football Favorites

Who to start and sit for fantasy football in Sunday's Bears-Panthers game as well as who to beat on against the number around the league.

Gene Chamberlain

Cole Kmet hauls in a pass and battles for yardage against the Panthers. The Bears tight end looks like a solid Week 5 fantasy choice.
Cole Kmet hauls in a pass and battles for yardage against the Panthers. The Bears tight end looks like a solid Week 5 fantasy choice. / Bob Donnan-Imagn Images
In this story:

Patience with players can only last for so long in fantasy football.

The season is too short to fool around with non-producers. However, anyone who drafted or claimed D'Andre Swift should forgive and forget those first three dismal weeks of the season. At least for this week they should

Not only did Swift look like Neal Anderson or Matt Forte last week with 93 yards rushing and seven receptions for 72 yards, but he added in a 36-yard TD run. It wasn't as much Swift signaling he's ready to roll but that the Bears running game was finding its footing.

After Swift's slow start, it's understandable if many owners dumped him or buried him on a shelf somewhere.

Never underestimate matchups in fantasy football. Some people do, though.

SI.com fantasy expert Michael Fabiano recognizes Swift's potential due to the matchup when he lists Swift among "RBs with good matchups." However, he doesn't go so far as to strongly endorse starting him.

At the same time, he has Chuba Hubbard as a good player to start.

There is a good reason to anticipate this but it isn't because the Bears defense is poor against the run.

They've been middle of the pack stopping the run, but what they have done a good job with is usually stopping backs when they need to do it as they focus more on rushing the passer and covering against passes.

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A very good reason Swift is at least as good for a start in this one as Hubbard is the Panthers' health status at linebacker. Their best two linebackers are out for this game. Stopping Swift is usually the responsibility of linebackers.

Here's who to start and sit in fantasy ball from the Bears and Panthers.

Start 'Em

1. Bears TE Cole Kmet

He'll be working the middle of the field against that depleted Panthers linebacker corps, and has begun to up his yards per catch after it was low earlier, at 9.0 now and rising. Look for him to add to that one TD total, too. Not everyone will be so foolish as to put linebackers in coverage on DJ Moore like the Rams did. The Panthers will be more conventional and Kmet can beat them in coverage.

Not everyone agrees with this. Fabiano has Kmet as a major player to sit.

"Kmet came crashing back to earth last week, scoring just 6.4 points a week after producing nearly 26 points," Fabiano wrote. "That had much to do with the return of Keenan Allen, which resulted in a huge decline in Kmet's target share."

Not really. Allen didn't get much work, either. He had only three targets and only one in the second half. The seven targets for running back D'Andre Swift and the rebirth of the running game took away from Kmet's targets last week.

2. Bears RB D'Andre Swift

Caleb Williams suddenly realizes the checkdown is no dirty word. With defenses blitzing the Bears to try and force him into mistakes, look for screens and dumpoffs to is new best buddy in the passing game, Swift. The Bears saw the game films. The Panthers got buried by Jim Harbaugh's run-oriented offense and the Saints' ground

3. Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard

He'll get some yardage just because they'll keep giving him the ball initially. However, the Bears defense usually shuts off the running game at some point. In Hubbard's case, he's an above-average receiver, too, with 13 catches in 14 targets and 6.5 yards a catch to go with one TD. At the very least, Hubbard figures  be involved heavily under the zone as receiver option coming out of the backfield.

4. Panthers WR Adam Thielen

Just out of force of habit, when he faces the Bears it's a good option. The former Vikings receiver owns four TD atches in his last five games against the Bears and made six catches last year.

5. Bears WR DJ Moore

He was held to five receptions last year by his old team but if they do it again it won't be for the paltry 58 yards he had last season against them. Moore is due to break out for some YAC and Carolina's struggling defense can't cover everyone.

6. Bears WR Keenan Allen

No doubt many have given up on him by now in fantasy ball but he's a player worth claiming this week because of his past and his improved health. Also, he works the middle of the field where the Panthers are using backups in many positions. If he was dropped in your league, he's a good pick-up and play for this week and going forward.

Sit 'Em

1. Panthers QB Andy Dalton

Two straight weeks of success is about all you can expect from someone who has kicked around the league for three years looking for work. He's capable of some mop-up yardage and comeback TDs but the Bears secondary has clamped down on everybody so far. Against this greedy bunch of thieves in the Bears secondary, Dalton could run into interception troubles like he did at Soldier Field against the Cardinals (pick-4), but fear not, he also could pile up big yardage and a few TDs in comeback mode too. If you're relying on a QB like this, the battle is lost.

2. Panthers WR Xavier Legette

The Bears are sure to focus pass coverage on Diontae Johnson. Legette has 12 catches for 143 yards and eight first downs, so he has been heavily involved. At 6-3, 227, the Panthers would surely throw his way in the red zone. The thing is, he is most likely to draw Tyrique Stevenson in many matchups and the big, athletic receiver isn't the problem for Stevenson. It's the crafty route runner who is also fast that he struggles to cover.

3. Bears QB Caleb Williams

He's going to be checkdown Charlie for a while now as he tries to display better efficiency and the ability to preserve possessions until he can attack better downfield. Shorter yardage totals but fewer interceptions and lost fumbles will be the goal for now.

4. Panthers WR Diontae Johnson

His problem is facing a defense that Fabiano this week reported hasn't given up more than 12 1/2 fantasy points to a receiver this year. The Bears will likely clamp down on him at times with Jaylon Johnson, who effectively takes out any team's receiver.

5. Bears WR Rome Odunze

The big game against the Colts for 112 yards and then nothing. Just one catch for 10 yards. One of the problems with Williams now is realizing any of his receivers could be open. He had Odunze wide open for a long TD last week and didn't see him. They need to show more consistency with their first-round target before he becomes someone who could be a valuable fantasy player.

Defense

Obviously no one is taking the Panthers defense against anyone at this point and even against a rookie quarterback, but the Bears wouldn't be a great play either mainly because of Dalton's experience. They did hold down Matthew Stafford last week but he didn't have the offensive line in front of him that Dalton will have on Sunday. Team defenses are not the way to go in this one.

A player to watch for IDP is Bears safety Jaquan Brisker. He had a breakout type game last week and only seemed to need health and some confidence before starting to make even bigger plays.

Montez Sweat and Gervon Dexter are potentials as well. Dalton will hold the ball until the last possible chance to throw. It can lead to sacks.

The Betting Window

Play of the Week: Via Fan Duel, Keenan Allen to record 25+ receiving yards in each half +450. It's definitely a long shot but worth the play at that price, and he is supposedly healthy now.

Bears On SI Record for Bears Games: 4-0 straight up, 3-1 ATS, 3-1 over/under

This Week's Bears Line: Bears by 4 (over/under 41)

Bears On SI Pick: Bears 26, Panthers 16

Last Week Around the NFL: 8-7 straight up, 8-7-1 ATS, 1-3 power plays

Around the NFL to Date: 37-26 straight up, 35-27-1 ATS, 7-9 power plays

This Week's Lines and NFL Picks

  • Jets +2 vs. Vikings (at London): Vikings 20, Jets 17
  • Ravens -2 1/2 at Bengals: Ravens 30, Bengals 24
  • Browns +3 at Commanders: Browns 21, Commanders 20
  • Bills +1 at Texans: Bills 23, Texans 20* 
  • Colts +3 at Jaguars: Jaguars 19, Colts 17
  • Dolphins -1 at Patriots: Dolphins 24, Patriots 20
  • Cardinals +7 at 49ers: 49ers 33, Cardinals 28 
  • Raiders +3 at Broncos: Broncos 16, Raiders 10* 
  • Packers -3 at Rams: Rams 26, Packers 23
  • Giants +7 at Seahawks: Seahawks 27, Giants 17*
  • Cowboys +3 at Steelers: Cowboys 31, Steelers 26
  • Saints + 5 1/2 at Chiefs: Chiefs 31, Saints 27*
  • 49ers -3 at Seahawks**: 49ers 20, Seahawks 16

*power play

**Week 6 Thursday night game

-Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

-If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER

Twitter: Bears OnSI

Published
Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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