What Hard Work Earns in Chicago

Analysis: Jaylon Johnson's new contract is not as obvious a choice for the Chicago Bears as Roquan Smith, but the effect of not signing him is similar.

While everyone is rushing to back Jaylon Johnson in his contract standoff with the Bears, it's not necessarily a one-sided argument.

Even with some of the nice metrics on his side courtesy of Pro Football Focus, getting Johnson a new contract is not an obvious decision. It's not even as clear of a decision as last year when Roquan Smith was obviously worth bringing back at a high pay rate. Part of the reason for this is they had no suitable substitute for Smith as a weakside linebacker.

Johnson's situation depends on what the price demand actually is and the team's ability to replace the player. 

The one thing often mentioned by the Bears in the past, and acknowledged by Johnson, was a need to see more plays on the ball and more interceptions.

Johnson has three career interceptions and two this year.

However, they both came against backup quarterbacks in a blowout victory. Getting a pick in conditions like this hardly compares to his first interception, off Joe Burrow in a 20-17 win over the Cincinnati Bengals in 2021.

So you want to pay 20M + for a corner who isn’t in the top 10 in the League but wants to be paid in the top 3? Ok, that’s a smart way of putting together a team

— Greg Gabriel (@ggabefootball) October 31, 2023

One thing to take into account is how Johnson rarely gets tested. As each week goes by, he's challenged even less and based on metrics from PFF it appears to be the result of both his own talents and one other player's struggles.

Johnson has been targeted only 26 times in eight games, partly because he missed two games due to injury. This has been a problem throughout his career, as he has missed 13 games in four seasons and never has played every game.

Still, his play has been high quality without the injuries. When he is challenged this season, he has allowed only 11 receptions in 26 targets.

Part of the reason Johnson has only 26 targets is opponents throw it to the other side of the field more. Tyrique Stevenson has been targeted 61 times this year, including 30 times in the last two games and 44 times in the last four games. He has given up 44 receptions. He's really facing an excessive amount of targeting because he hasn't been good at preventing catches. He has allowed 449 yards on the 44 receptions according to PFF

If the Bears traded Johnson, the starters would be Stevenson and Terell Smith long term, or short term possibly Jaylon Jones.

Terell Smith remains on injured reserve with mono. Before his illness the Bears were extremely high on his progress. There was a good reason to be. According to the same PFF stats, Smith had been targeted 17 times in four games and had allowed only nine catches for 115 yards. It is a very small sample size, though.

The bottom line is dealing away Johnson leaves a hole Stevenson must fill be becoming better in coverage and Smith must fill by being healthy and showing progress like he had been showing.

It also puts the Bears firmly back in the draft market for a future cornerback.

If they simply hold onto Johnson until season's end, there is the chance they'd be able to get him signed before free agency begins. He might play well enough to show he's worth the money he wants the rest of the way, or might not. The Bears would get nothing back in return beyond a future compensatory pick if no terms are reached, and he leaves in free agency. However, before next season they would have someone else in the cornerback picture besides Terell Smith and Stevenson in the form of a draft pick.

The Bears have plenty of money to pay Johnson, unless they are certain they plan to pay Justin Fields to be their quarterback of the future. Then it's a factor for consideration.

The other big effect to gauge is one no metrics from Pro Football Focus or Sportradar or anyone else can will not help with and that's the locker room feeling. 

Last year's failed contract negotiation could be labeled an isolated incident, but two straight years with situations like this says something else.

All their young defensive players will see for the second straight year what hard work and production brings them if they play for the Chicago Bears. 

The lesson is hard work and production doesn't get them paid in Chicago. It gets them out of town.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven