Bears Keys to an Upset of Browns
Justin Fields knew it was coming when he stood this week at the podium in the Bears media room.
There was that last time he faced the Browns, the only other time in the regular season and it defined his early existence in the league. Everyone would want to know about it.
He ran around like a scared rabbit and Myles Garrett was the hunter.
That's all in the past.
"I mean, you can go on and on," Fields said. "I've learned a lot of stuff. That was, what, two years ago? A lot of stuff. A lot of stuff.
"First start in the NFL to now, I've definitely learned a lot."
It's not so much Fields' chance to show how much he has learned as it is a test of how he handles this unique situation.
After all, this is not the same Browns team he faced then, just like he no longer is the same player making his first start that day in Cleveland when he took nine sacks, a week after coming on to play extensively for the first time after Andy Dalton duffered an injury in a 20-17 win over Cincinnati.
Fields no longer has Matt Nagy as coach, putting him alone in the backfield without help against blitzes and prone to pot shots from Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney.
The Browns still have a formidable pass rush and an even better defense, but they're not even playing the same scheme and Jim Schwartz of the "wide-nine" fame is their defensive coordinator after two years being a senior defensive assistant with Tennessee.
That first Browns game came against the defense coordinated by Joe Woods, the current Saints defensive coordinator.
Fields didn't start running the ball on planned plays effectively until midway through last year and it's an additional weapon against some things the Browns can do.
So anyone thinking they can take what Fields does on Sunday and compare it to what he did in his last start against Cleveland, then use it as proof of whether they should trade him and draft Caleb Williams will find no low-hanging fruit here. Tthey are different situations entirely.
Here are the three keys to beating the Browns and one thing is for sure: Letting Fields stand alone in the pocket and take a beating isn't on the list.
1. Possess the Football
Doing what the Bears have done over the last four games on offense will go a long way toward achieving this goal.
The Browns have run 925 plays, tops in the NFL. They get to do this because their defense gets opponents off the field and their offense moves the ball.
Disrupt either of those and the Browns are out of their element.
The Bears are definitely capable of it. The Bears have piled up more first downs than their opponents in nine of the 13 games. They have won the time-of-possession battle in nine of their last 10 games and had advantages of six minutes possession time in the last four.
Teams and quarterbacks with fewer opportunites tend to operate frantically and commit mistakes. If they're really used to holding the ball, then they're even more mistake-prone when it doesn't happen. They are not prepared for scoring or attacking outside of the control they usually have when they lead or dictate play with ball control themselves.
The Bear have something working for their offense which lets them offset attempts to prevent ball control and that's Fields' scrambling ability. He's a great deodorizer at times for the failures of their attack.
Whether it's Fields' scrambling or designed quarterback runs, the Bears need to use these and do it in a way not to put their QB in too much jeopardy.
Cleveland lacks this advantage with a slow-moving 38-year-old veteran passer. He's either going to hit a receiver or he's not, but if he does then it better be at the sticks or beyond because Cleveland is averaging 3.3 yards after the catch, the second lowest average in the NFL, and the Bears defense is giving up 3.5 yards after the catch, the second-best average.
2. Take Advantage of Early Opps
It's likely to get very tough in the second half of this game for the Bears offense, so they need to come prepared to take full advantage of chances they get early. They are equipped to do this, but it has to be done and here's why.
The Bears lead the NFL in lowest first-quarter three-and-out percentage at 7% It's just a sign of how well prepared they have been on offense that they can be so effective in first quarters and, in particular, on their first 15 plays considering how poorly ranked they are overall (20th on offense).
As good as the Bears have been early, the Browns have been inept. They have spent 5% of plays in opposing red zones in first quarters, which is second worst percentage in the league. They've also left the field on three-and-outs six times in first quarters since Week 11, which is the highest number in that period. They're just not getting it diagnosed well and executed in first quarters.
However, the Browns are 6-0 in games when they lead at halftime and their defense becomes extremely ornery in the second half, when they allow a league-best 31% of plays to be successful. A successful play is one 40% of the way to the first-down sticks on first down, 60% of the required distance on second down and 100% on third and fourth downs. They are especially difficult to run on late, allowing a league-best 26% successful plays on fourth-quarter rushing attempts.
The Bears have been culprits at wasting those early scoring opps in the past. They rate so well at consistently moving it in the first quarter but are only 19th in first-quarter scoring (4.2 points). So there's reason to worry. The Bears more or less must get the lead with the earlier advantage they're likely to enjoy based on past performance.
If they don't, it's unlikely they'll manage any type of comeback against that stout Cleveland defense.
3. Expose Joe Flacco's Inexperience
Considering he's 39 years old in a month and has been playing since 2008, it might be tough to play to QB Joe Flacco's inexperience, but he is inexperienced with the Browns offense. One sign of older or inexperienced QBs is they usually average fewer yards per attempt as they're dumping off a lot of passes or hearing quick footsteps coming. In Flacco's case, he seems very willing to throw it downfield still.
The Bears can improve his willingness to get rid of the ball with disguised pressures and coverages, anything to keep Flacco off balance.
The pressures might be needed because they no longer have the advantage of two good edge rushers with Yannick Ngakoue gone. It might take more blitzing to achieve it. But disguising when or where it's coming and also keeping DBs and linebackers in the likely areas of hot reads would be ways to apply heat.
It's not likely Flacco is going to know enough of the offense to go beyond a quick hot read in the face of a blitz. If they've got the blitz applying pressure and the closest receiver to the line accounted for, those 16 years of NFL experience are going to tell Flacco to throw it away or take the sack.
Kyler Gordon becomes a very key player in this one with all of the uses they can devise for a fast, athletic slot cornerback near the line of scrimmage.
The worst thing they can do against a pocket passer who knows what he's doing is let him get into a rhythm. The first half of this season should have told them this, that time back before they had the benefit of Montez Sweat's rush.
If they do nothing to disrupt Flacco then he's going to do what Justin Herbert, Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, Patrick Mahomes and even Jordan Love did against them. If they disrupt him enough, take advantage of his lack of knowledge about the Browns offense, he'll look like Jared Goff did.
The Bears held Goff to his worst and second-worst passer ratings of the season, 54.6 and 68.3.
If Flacco's numbers wind up like this, the only way the Bears are losing is through a flukish circumstance, like a 6-3 or 3-0 game.
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