Boom or Bust? The Caleb Williams Debate

Analysis: Many people call Caleb Williams a generational talent but a former NFL player sees potential bust waiting for the Bears if they take him No. 1.

It would be easy to dismiss the comments of former Bears and Steelers fullback Merill Hoge as ramblings of an ex-player who knew nothing about quarterbacks.

After all, the former ESPN analyst once thought Brian Brohm would be a better quarterback to draft than Aaron Rodgers.

However, he also predicted Johnny Manziel would be a totally wasted draft pick. Actually, this really took no skill considering how Johnny Football loved to party and couldn't throw from the pocket. Last year, though, he said C.J. Stroud would be the best QB in the draft and he had a second-round grade on eventual first overall pick Bryce Young.

Hoge is no draft pick QB savant, as he has hits and misses. But this time Hoge is convinced the Bears should keep Justin Fields and trade the No. 1 pick to whichever team is offering the best package. He doesn't believe all the talk about USC's Caleb Williams being a gifted quarterback for the ages or being the closest thing to Patrick Mahomes to come along. 

When he offered this opinion, Hoge did say he has more work to do yet on Williams' real value, but made it clear he doesn't think the Bears should take him No. 1.

"The one thing, I can tell you this from studying him last year and early parts of this year, there's one thing that is clear to me: He is not special," Hoge told VSiN. "He is not special. There is nothing special about him. There is nothing that I would be like 'Wow.' "

Hoge heard the comparisons to Mahomes.

"No way," he said. "C.J. Stroud—he doesn't throw the ball nearly like C.J. Stroud does. He doesn't play from the pocket. In fact, I think he struggles throwing the ball off movement. I want to confirm that, but it's just nothing special."

Because of that, he thinks Fields is a better choice for the Bears

"Here's what happened to Justin Fields, and I think you have to consider, the worst thing that you ever want to have but especially a quarterback is constant change once you draft them. What has happened to Justin Fields? Constant change—head coach, coordinator, head coach, coordinator. I mean, you can't really know a quarterback and a player until their second year and definitely their third year to know what you really. And you keep (having) all these changes how do you know what you really have?"

As a result, Hoge offered up one way to approach this for the Bears.

"I would bait that and get as many picks as I possibly can because I'm going to go back to what wins you championships," Hoge said. "And that is teams, and the more good players you have accross the board the better chance you have.

"But right now I do not see how that guy is better than Justin Fields where he is today."

This might all sound like someone popping off but Hoge had offered up a description in the past of what he considers qualities necessary for quarterback stardom in the NFL. He did this during an interview with Dan Patrick last year.

"This is what makes the best in the history of our league: He executes the play," Hoge said. "He plays in structure. Like, if you're going to make Tom Brady throw a hitch 12 times in row, he will throw a hitch 12 times in a row.

"You know, how many quarterbacks will say 'you know what, I'm tired of throwing the hitch, I'm going to throw the dig but the dig is not there? Tom Brady is second-and-5 and the other team is second-and-10. There's your difference."

This was how he assessed Stroud to be better last year than Bryce Young. The reason he attaches so much emphasis to this ability is simple.

"The majority of all throws in the NFL are from a dirty, collapsed pocket," he ssaid. "There's traffic."

He looks at quarterbacks from Ohio State or Alabama and sees quarterbacks who have had the luxury of playing for teams with overwhelming talent, and they won't have this in the NFL. So they have to show they can throw from the collapsing pocket the way Stroud did.

"They (NFL QBs) don't have the luxury of being better than everybody else half the season," he said. "OK, so how do (QBs) function within that. When you look at that category now the decision-making and accuracy and arm strength come into play."

He saw Stroud as being able to throw from a pocket and Young not as good at it. He doesn't see this ability at all in Williams, although he admits he still has a little film from the second half of this past season to watch.

Considering how USC and Williams played in the second half of the season, it wouldn't be a surprise if any of this causes some panic among Bears fans who call themselves Williams supporters.

Then again, it was Hoge who said Lamar Jackson couldn't thrive in Todd Monken's new Ravens offense. Thursday night Jackson was named MVP.

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