Bear Digest

Caleb Williams fact or fiction predictions for the 2025 NFL season

Alan Goldsher

We're months away from OTAs, but Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams already has his game face on.
We're months away from OTAs, but Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams already has his game face on. / David Banks-Imagn Images
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The Chicago Bears offseason comes loaded with questions galore.

  • How will head coach Ben Johnson attack 2025?
  • How will GM Ryan Poles approach the draft and free agency?
  • Who will or won’t be around at the start of training camp?

And, most importantly, what the heck will we see out of Caleb Williams?

  • Growth?
  • Stagnation?
  • Brilliance?

Until the roster is locked—until, say, August 31, give or take—we won’t be able to prognosticate for realsies. But here in February, we can take a stab at what kind of numbers Caleb might or might not produce in 2025.

So what say we play fact or fiction?

Williams Will Throw For Over 4,000 Yards

No Bear quarterback in history has ever tossed for 4K, which—considering the franchise has been a thing since sometime around 1868—is shocking.

Last season, Williams set the team’s rookie passing yardage record with 3,541, shattering the previous record of 2,193, courtesy of Mitchell Trubisky, and with Johnson at the helm, 500-plus more yards seems eminently doable, so FACT.

Williams Will Throw Less Than Ten Interceptions

Last season, Matt Eberflus and his staff decided that nothing was more important for Williams—nothing—than protecting the ball, a choice that likely played a huge role in their uninspiring game planning. It was all fine and good that Williams threw just six picks, but I’ll happily take more interceptions if it means more downfield tosses.

Generally speaking, ballsy play calling leads to more opportunities for the defense to make a play, and Johnson is nothing if not ballsy, so FICTION.

Williams Will Throw 25-Plus Touchdowns

Last season in Detroit, with Johnson calling plays and Amon-Ra St. Brown catching balls, Lions quarterback Jared Goff hurled 37 tuddies, by far a career high. If Johnson is as aggressive as he was in Michigan—and if D.J. Moore once again becomes D.J. Moore—25 is a relatively low bar, so FACT.

Williams Will Rush For Over 500 Yards

Last season, Williams ran for 489 yards on 81 rushes, and that was with a limited number of drawn-up quarterback runs. For his part, Goff, who’s never been known for his legs, ran just 35 times for 56 yards. The previous season—also under Johnson—Goff took off just 32 times, and considering how successful the Lions were without a mobile quarterback, there’s little reason to believe that Johnson will let Williams channel his inner Lamar Jackson, so we’ll say FICTION.

Williams Will Rush For Five or More Touchdowns

Over the last two seasons, Goff rushed for two total touchdowns, which tells us that Johnson doesn’t like dialing up sneaks or tush pushes in the red zone.

And Williams evidently doesn’t gravitate towards using his feet by the goal line (Caleb rushed for nada TDs), so this one comes in as FICTION.

Williams Will Be Sacked Less Than 30 Times

I think we can all agree that Williams will get dropped way less than last year’s 68 (cringe), but going sub-30 might be a stretch, as Goff was dumped 31 times in 2024 and 30 times the previous season. It’ll be close, but, much to Caleb’s chagrin, this appears to be FICTION.

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Alan Goldsher
ALAN GOLDSHER

Alan Goldsher has written about sports for Sports Illustrated, ESPN, Apple, Playboy, NFL.com, and NBA.com, and he’s the creator of the Chicago Sports Stuff Substack. He’s the bestselling author of 15 books, and the founder/CEO of Gold Note Records. Alan lives in Chicago, where he writes, makes music, and consumes and creates way too much Bears content. You can visit him at http://www.AlanGoldsher.com and http://x.com/AlanGoldsher.

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