Bears and Cowboys Fantasy Forecast

Could Cowboys offensive players finally come to life for fantasy owners in this one against a Bears defense now without Robert Quinn?

USA Today

If you're a fantasy football owner, the trade of Robert Quinn doesn't cause the impact a receiver deal does.

Still, there are ramifications. In this Bears and Cowboys game on Sunday impact is one anyone who has Dak Prescott, Cowboys receivers or running back Tony Pollard can appreciate.

Remove a veteran presence from what is a very young Bears defensive front and the result can be bigger running plays off the edge. It can be more time for Dak Prescott to throw to targets farther downfield. 

For the Cowboys, it definitely removes the undesirable matchup of a wise old veteran pass rusher going against their rookie left tackle Tyler Smith. This means less chance for Prescott to be blindsided and more passing production.

It's true, Prescott had an abysmal game in his only effort against a Matt Eberflus defense. 

He went 24 of 39 for 209 yards with an interception and the Cowboys were shut out 23-0 by the Colts. That was in 2018, only Prescott's third year as starter.

There is always a trickle-down fantasy effect from a trade even if it is a defensive player.

Then, too, there are IDP leagues and this trade could mean a greater role defensively for Roquan Smith. 

The Bears linebacker is a much better pass rusher than he's given credit for and they could look to him more on the blitz the way Indianapolis did with Shaq Leonard in Matt Eberflus' first year as a defensive coordinator.

Here are the best bets for fantasy football and at the betting window for Sunday's Bears and Cowboys game.

Fantasy Football Forecast

Start 'Em

1 Dallas QB Dak Prescott

He's been sitting enough this year. Time to start. Prescott didn't deliver big numbers last week against the worst defense in football, the Lions, but did enough to win. Depending on his patience, he could put up much bigger or slightly bigger numbers. Prescott's poor game against Eberflus' Colts defense in 2018 was much different. For one, it was in Indianapolis. It was against a Colts defense no long trying to find its identity. They had found it a few weeks earlier. Prescott has become especially adept at dropping in deeper throws to the pockets against zones since then. He did it in 2019 at Soldier Field in a game the Bears won easily anyway. Even if he struggles, Prescott on a bad day is worth more than plenty of other QBs at their best.

2. Cowboys RB Tony Pollard

He's it. The Cowboys can't count on rushing yards from anyone else due to Ezekiel Elliott's injury but Pollard has been quite capable of piling up yards on his own. He's definitely not a big back, but at 209 pounds he has done the job when he is healthy and mainly when Elliott isn't healthy. He had 105 yards against the Giants and 86 against the Cowboys. And there is no question his ability in the passing game can come into play. The one area he doesn't do as well is goal line. He has had four TDs in 36 red zone runs the last three seasons. But the Bears defense is still suspect against the run, especially with the defensive line being thrown for a loop with Robert Quinn leaving.

3. Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb

Lamb is their chief deep threat and the Bears had some problems stopping DeVante Parker last week on deeper throws. The problem was the inexperienced quarterback throwing the passes more than their receivers. Lamb coming across the formation or deep down the sidelines could be a threat for the Bears, who could assign Jaylon Johnson to cover Lamb.  The 6-foot-2, 189-pound second-year receiver had no problem whatsoever at getting deeper passes upon Prescott's return from injury, as he hauled in four passes for 70 yards last week. If the Bears don't use Johnson all over the field, they could pick out Kindle Vildor and go after him with Lamb.

4. Bears WR Darnell Mooney

Based on the 9 1/2-point betting spread, the odds are far better the Bears will be trailing much of this game and throwing underneath the coverage multiple times to Mooney, who should be able to pile up some yardage and catches, and perhaps a few meaningless TDs. At least they'd be meaningless to Bears fans, not fantasy owners who have Mooney.

5. Bears TE Cole Kmet

The Lions hit the Cowboys defense with eight receptions for 105 yards to their two tight ends and other defenses have done the same type of thing. Tyler Higbee had seven catches against the Cowboys in the Rams game.  Dallas frequently gambles with linebackers, especially with Micah Parsons, and leaves gaps down the field for catch and run. Rolling tanks like Kmet can do some damage to DBs. 

6. Bears K Cairo Santos

He might be the only chance the Bears have a scoring against that destructive Dallas defense. Santos is on another roll like he had in 2020, 17 straight but this time he's hitting from long range, 4-for-4 from 50 and longer. He'll appreciate kicking indoors for a change instead of in the rain, too.

At Your Own Risk

7. Cowboys TE Dalton Schultz 

Normally a tight end who is involved in the passing game can do damage against the Bears with all the zone coverage they use, but Schultz is injured. He's questionable with a knee injury.

8. Cowboys WR Noah Brown

He's been their second-best receiver with 25 catches as Michael Gallup slowly returns from an ACL tear and, like Schultz, is questionable. The foot injury he had makes him less likely to play even than Schultz because he was  unable to practice on Friday while Schultz at least went through a limited workout.

Sit 'Em

9. Bears QB Justin Fields

This won't be the QB run-fest the Bears had last week. Dallas held Jalen Hurts to 27 yards rushing in their game. He had to beat them with his arm and at this point, with these receivers and this line, it seems unlikely Fields is capable of this.

10. Bears RB David Montgomery

With three subs on the offensive line, forget about any holes to speak of for the Bears running backs. Montgomery might help as a receiver at times, and definitely as a pass blocker. But you're not getting many fantasy points for Montgomery's pass blocking.

11. Bears RB Khalil Herbert

Ditto for Herbert. Many of his bigger plays came on the wide-zone blocking scheme and they will find executing that against the speed Dallas has on defense very difficult.

Defense

In a standard league with team defense, the Cowboys definitely are a play. The Bears have had sporadic defensive success. They're good in the second half of games. They've been good in a few recent games, but they need to sustain it more before fantasy owners can rely on this. And expecting them to hold down a team with as many weapons as Dallas is a bit much, anyway.

In IDP leagues either of the big-play guys for Dallas rates a play. Parsons could find all kinds of places he can exploit going against a makeshift Bears offensive line. Fields tends to panic when under too much pressure and gets himself in trouble. Passes batted into the air or strip-sacks come to mind here. Cornerback Trevon Diggs normally is a beneficiary of all this pressure.

Anyone with Roquan Smith in IDP play is a safe bet the rest of the year. The Bears are going to give Alan Williams the ability to test Smith's skills so they know if he's worth spending all of that money on next offseason. If the jury is still out on that, these final 10 games could change some minds.

Best Bears Bets

The Spread and Total

The Line:  Cowboys by 9 1/2 (Over/under 42 1/2)

Best Bet:   Cowboys to cover. 

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