Chance of Bears Personnel Success

The Bears have more than $100 million available and the top pick in the draft but what are GM Ryan Poles' chances for success based on last year's offseason?

General managers have their strengths and weaknesses just like anyone else.

They can find players at certain positions better than at others.

How else do you explain the Bears wandering through the quarterback wasteland since Jim McMahon, whether it was through the draft, free agency or trades.

When Jay Cutler was the best quarterback they had in that period until potentially Justin Fields, it's not saying much for their personnel bosses' abilities to judge passers.

With the Bears drafting first this year, the focus is on Poles and Cunningham to work their magic on the defensive line first. With a drastic need at either end or tackle and two of the top three players in the draft judged by most analysts to be defensive end Will Anderson Jr. and defensive tackle Jalen Carter, it's rather obvious what they need to look at initially. In fact, NFL Draft Bible rates four of the top six draft prospects as defensive linemen so they'll have choices.

If they trade far down, they may need to focus on other positions like the offensive line or receiver.

At least one starting linebacker, another cornerback and a backup tight end wouldn't hurt, either.

Because both Cunningham and Poles were offensive linemen, there is the tendency to think of this position as what they are best at choosing. They weren't bad at it on their first try.

Finding Braxton Jones Jr. rates as one of their great successes of the 2022 draft. Bringing in Riley Reiff as a free agent didn't hurt, even if they paid a contract that included $10 million counting in incentives. At the time they went looking for a tackle, there wasn't much to choose from and Reiff had a strong season for a 34-year-old veteran.

What can they do when trying to draft or sign defensive linemen? It's tougher to see success based on only one draft class and one free agent class without much in funds to spend.

Here's rating how the Bears did at bringing in talent at various position groups for their first classes of free agency and the draft. Again, all of this was with limited funds. Still some of their failures extended beyond the boundaries of cap considerations.

This is all anyone has to go on to judge where this GM and his assistant are strongest at finding talent. If last offseason was an indication, they could struggle at satifying their biggest need.

1. Secondary

They targeted this spot in the draft specifically, and signed a number of free agents who went undrafted or were even claimed some on waivers. The end result was a group with moments of brilliance but some struggles, early. The secondary as a group dropped off considerably by season's end in production. They ranked third against the pass after they were 3-4 going into Week 8, and finished 17th against the pass. However, all of their injuries in the secondary occurred as the season went on, as they had every single member of the secondary miss at least two games in the final five weeks. Eddie Jackson missed the last five games and even rookie backups Jaylon Jones and Josh Blackwell ended up injured. Rookie second-rounder Jaquan Brisker led them in sacks and was second in tackles. Kyler Gordon had three interceptions and stepped up his game greatly after the midpoint. No Bears cornerback has made more since Kyle Fuller had seven in 2018.

It's safe to say someone knew what they were doing when they managed to say in the middle of the league against the pass without any help from the pass rush, and the fact they brought in backup defensive backs like Blackwell, Jones and Elijah Hicks, who had no experience, but they still got production.

2. Offensive Line

If they do decided to pursue blockers, like Northwestern's Peter Skoronski, it would look like they rate a better chance at success than on the defensive line but not based on talent available. They're just better at offensive line than finding defensive linemen.

Braxton Jones appears to be their starter for the future at left tackle. Their fifth-round pick from a smaller university, Southern Utah, and he managed to start every game and avoid looking foolish. In fact, Pro Football Focus gave him the highest overall grade of any rookie tackle, left or right, last season. Reiff came in late and provided depth at a position group that was tested almost every week with starting changes due to injuries. Even adding Michael Schofield Jr. proved a success. He wound up graded 24th out of 78 guards graded by PFF, including 15th as a pass blocker who had to play both left and right guard. Although it was only for 418 plays, he had a higher grade than starting left guard Cody Whitehair.

3. Linebacker

It's not as if they drafted anyone at this position, and they spent nothing on the position in free agency, really. They also gutted weakside linebacker by trading Roquan Smith. Yet, the people brought in all produced. So there's hope they do know a linebacker when they see one. Nicholas Morrow had 11 tackles for loss in nine games at weakside linebacker, while Smith had four tackles for loss in eight games. Smith did have 2 1/2 sacks and Morrow none, and he produced two interceptions to one by Morrow. The numbers weren't $100 million greater. Morrow showed he can play weakside or middle at an acceptable level even though he hadn't played in a year and was in a new defense with a new team. Then they also found Jack Sanborn, who could be a solid No. 3 going forward, or even challenge to start.

Sanborn's 9.9 tackles per game for six starts were far more than Morrow's 4.6 at the same position for eight starts. Both Joe Thomas and Matthew Adams showed an ability to play at the level of backup/special teams linebacker.

4. Defensive Line

Their ability to find defensive linemen really is really questionable, whether at end or tackle. Perhaps the fact the top two in the draft are consensus top of the class should convince them to just take one because when they're left to their own devices they haven't succeeded in one offseason, anyway. The year was an education for Dominique Robinson, who looked like a world beater when he had 1 1/2 sacks in his pro debut and had to go against the tackle duo of Mike McGlinchey and Trent Williams. From there on out he did almost nothing. He had no more sacks and only one more tackle for loss. He had no quarterback hits after the first game. Yet, he played all season and had seven starts in the final eight games. A former wide receiver, Robinson is a complete project.

They could instead have drafted Kingsley Enagbare, who went a few spots later. He had three sacks but didn't do much really. No one taken in the last three rounds did besides James Houston of Detroit, who is a 220-pound linebacker and not an end. Three of his eight sacks came playing against the Bears. Several edge rushers brought in during the season off waivers did nothing either. Taco Charlton's jewel-studded taco necklace was cute but he couldn't rush the passer. At tackle, they were slightly more successful because Justin Jones got better as the season wore on. This could be expected because he hadn't been a three-technique in a four-man single-gap front in the past. He started getting the hang of it and made 12 tackles for loss. But they need someone who is a guaranteed success at three technique. Their first attempt was to give about $40 million to Larry Ogunjobi. He failed the physical, then had only 1 1/2 sacks and seven tackles for loss with Pittsburgh.

5. Quarterback

The movement by a few misguided individuals to trade Justin Fields and draft either is likely to be botched if you go by what they did at this position. The starter they inherited, Fields, has faults caused by inexperience. The players the Bears brought in as backups—Trevor Siemian, Tim Boyle and Nathan Peterman—were total failures. They could use a real backup quarterback capable of starting for extended periods if asked. All three played and two started, and their combined passer rating was 54.06 (31 of 59, 356 yards, four interceptions, two touchdowns). Fields needs to cut back his running if these three backups are the plan going forward because they showed no ability to succeed when given a chance.

6. Running Back

Trestan Ebner might have ability but sure didn't show it in brief attempts last year. He averaged only 22.6 yards on kick returns and in spot play couldn't crack 3.0 yards per carry. Darrynton Evans flashed a bit of speed but didn't have much opportunity to give an indication. Running back could actually become a higher draft priority if they are unable to sign David Montgomery or any number of other free agent backs.

7. Wide Receiver

If the goal for finding wide receivers in free agency or the draft is someone who can block and be a return man or coverage player on special teams, then they knocked it out of the park. While blocking helps, a wide receiver must be able to get open and then catch the ball. Velus Jones Jr. first struggled to run routes to get open and catch it, then to field punts, but finally came around as a kick returner and ultimately chasing passes within the offense. It's going to take time for him to get it and he doesn't have a lot of it since he'll be 26 by the time the season starts. The only other receiver they brought in remotely productive was Equanimeous St. Brown as a blocker and eventually as a receiver. His 21 receptions caused no one to forget Allen Robinson, that's for sure. Chase Claypool could be an answer but it was unfair to expect more from him than they got considering he came in midseason. Dante Pettis, Byron Pringle, N'Keal Harry, Tajae Sharpe, Ihmir Smith-Marsette and the cast of thousands brought in by Poles showed Bears personnel might know little about acquiring receivers. Pringle was supposed to be a real answer and was the biggest disappointment.

8. Tight End

They're 0-for-4. Cole Kmet had to shoulder the entire load this year at his position and deserves accolades for developing as a blocker and receiver. Ryan Griffin and Trevon Wesco combined for six receptions on 12 targets for 52 yards in 29 games. The backups, Jake Tonges and Chase Allen, never were targeted.

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