Why Plan to Replace Taylor Gabriel Isn't Up to Speed

Percentages and past NFL performances indicate the players chosen to take up where Taylor Gabriel left off in the Chicago Bears offense will have troubles meeting acceptable receiving levels

The Bears are banking heavily on wide receiver Darnell Mooney heavily contributing as a rookie despite being a fifth-round draft pick.

It's either this, or they're going to need a fountain of youth for 35-year-old wide receiver Ted Ginn Jr.

Both players are expected to supply the speed in the Bears' receiver corps this year with Taylor Gabriel gone.

In two seasons, Gabriel's receptions numbers didn't disappoint but he never lived up to the speed receiver title with big yardage.

So in this respect the task of replacing Gabriel assigned to Mooney or Ginn Jr. or both, isn't that great. Then again, the Bears would like to see better production and not the same numbers.

The issue with Ginn is his age. He thinks he's stayed in shape to extend productivity at an age when only a few other wide receivers have.

"I've been dealing with a guy for 14 years that every time I go home, I just work out with him," Ginn said. "Or over the last past years I work out with certain guys that know my body and understand what I'm trying to do.

"Over the years you start seeing that. You take it through a rehab stage first before you build. Just trying different elements that's out here to help me enhance or keep my speed to where around this age, you really lose it. And I pray to God I don't have any major injuries. That's been a key deal, too."

Despite claims by the Bears and by Ginn himself about being able to run still at his age, the numbers regarding 35-year-old receivers making contributions of signficance overwhelmingly suggest Ginn won't be able to do it.

Ginn made 30 receptions last year at age 34 in New Orleans. Taking this number as a cutoff point, only three wide receivers over the age of 34 have made 30 catches or more in the last five NFL seasons.

From 2015-19, only Larry Fitzgerald, Steve Smith and Anquan Boldin did it, and each did it twice and went well beyond 30.

A study done done by Pro Football Reference on the topic of age and decline indicates wide receivers hit a peak between 25-27 and then begin a gradual descent in productivity. By 35, it's been a long descent.

If the Bears can only count on 30 or fewer receptions from Ginn, perhaps it's possible to get productivity then from Mooney, their fifth-round draft pick from Tulane?

Rookie wide receivers chosen in the fifth round or later like Mooney rarely make such a big impact as 30 receptions.

Since 2015, there have been 76 wide receiver drafted in the fifth round or later and only nine of them made as many as 30 receptions as a rookie. Tyreek Hill was the fifth-round pick who led the way with 61 catches in 2017 and Stefon Diggs did it with 52 catches in 2015. Aside from that, rookie production by late-round wide receivers is sparce. No on else hit 50 receptions and the only two others close were Hunter Renfrow with the Raiders last year (49) and Darius Slayton last year with the Giants (48).

Mooney thinks he has an advantage some other receivers chosen so late didn't have. He believes his strength is something many young receivers struggle to perform.

"I think of myself more as a route runner and having my speed is just a bonus," Mooney said. "It helps me out and is a great advantage against like other guys."

Even though Gabriel averaged only 10.8 yards per reception in two Bears seasons after being labeled as their speed receiver, he at least provided 96 receptions and was well on his way to 115 or more for two years before two concussions last season caused seven missed games.

With neither Mooney nor Ginn as likely to produce the kind of reception numbers combined that Gabriel did, the Bears will be counting heavily on third-year receiver Anthony Miller to amp up his production as the slot receiver to offset the lost receptions at the other outside receiver spot.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven