Cole Kmet's Consistency Takes Root
Cole Kmet's production last year in the Bears passing game changed somewhat with the Luke Getsy offense and with quarterback Justin Fields facing a difficult situation at wide receiver.
He had to become the main receiver at times.
How it looks in Year 2 of the Getsy offense and with a better supporting cast of wide receivers available is the big question facing fantasy football owners pondering Kmet's stats for the coming year.
Kmet failed to hit BearDigest projections last year with 50 catches for 544 yards, although he drastically improved as an efficient player. His projection had been 56 catches for 580 yards. The projection hit his yards per catch at 10.4. It was a revised projection made after seeing the Getsy offense working in preseason and training camp.
Kmet definitely had a shot at bigger numbers because the wide receiver situation became even worse with Darnell Mooney's season-ending injury. There were more tight end targets. Kmet also had a career-best 72.5% catch rate on targets. He's been better every year in this regard but this was an 8% increase.
The other area Kmet greatly exceeded projections to show his most growth was in the critical red zone. He made six of his career-high seven touchdown catches in the red zone. That left him tied for fifth in the NFL for all receivers including backs and wideouts.
The Bears worked that area in OTAs extensively this offseason with Kmet and Robert Tonyan and also wide receiver Chase Claypool when he was healthy.
"Because Bobby and Cole and Clay and all the big receivers that we have, those guys are very valuable targets down there because they’re always open, because they can use their body to stay open," coach Matt Eberflus said. "That's what we need to work on."
Several factors weigh against Kmet's catch totals in 2023 both in the red zone and outside of it when considering whether he can advance his numbers.
The first is the presence of Tonyan. It's been clear since they drafted Kmet that he was their tight end for catching passes but Tonyan gives them two again. They had two when Kmet broke in and Jimmy Graham was in Chicago, but eventually Kmet improved enough to surpass the fading veteran.
There definitely is no friction with them adding Tonyan, as the two players knew each other prior and Kmet has said the right things. Will the tight end get used enough with the Bears for Kmet's numbers to be higher?
Any change downward could be at least partially offset by a better passing game overall, as Fields advances in the offense. What looks more likely is Kmet finding a plateau.
Another factor is how much Getsy even uses the tight ends. It was thought he might not have them targeted as much as Green Bay's offense he came out of never had more than 19.8% targets for tight ends since they instealled it. The Bears had been targeting tight ends 22.7% for Kmet's first two seasons.
However, they almost hit the figure again, reaching 21.7% despite having two backup tight ends who didn't do much at all as receivers the entire season.
Given two tight ends who can catch passes, it's reasonable to assume Getsy would then make use of them.
Another factor is Kmet's run blocking. This doesn't impact catches directly, but does help the Bears running game and in turn a better running attack can keep pass defenses from focusing on stopping Bears tight ends. Kmet seems far more efficient in this area now than as a rookie.
"Just with the schemes that we run, it's very important to be a point-of-attack blocker and either you have it or you don't, somebody that craves violence in the run game and he has that," tight ends coach Jim Dray said. "So we can kind of harness that like we did last year and this year for sure.
"He's the kind of guy like I said before he is a complete tight end. He can run and catch, so he's a guy that we can lean on in terms of the run game."
The last matter is his contract situation. Right now it's a spur. Whether it stays that way or he gets a preseason contract extension to keep him out of 2024 free agency could impact his catch totals. He seems to have this under control, though.
"For me, my agent handles that," Kmet said. "I pay them a good amount of money. That's on them to take care of it. They're handling all that type of stuff."
Kmet seems focused, and that's about all the Bears cans ask.
Cole Kmet at a Glance
Vitals: 6-foot-6, 260 pounds, fourth season.
Career: Has 138 receptions in 206 targets for 1,399 yards and nine TDs, 10.1 yards per catch and a 67% catch ratio.
2022: Made 50 catches in 69 targets for 544 yards and seven TDs with 10.9 yards per catch and a 72.5% catch ratio.
The Number: 28. Kmet had gone 28 straight games without catching a TD pass until he caught one against Dallas last year and this started a run of seven TDs in 10 weeks.
2023 FanNation Projection: 48 receptions, 68 targets, 577 yards, 12.2 yards per catch, 5 TDs, catch percentage 70.6%.
Bottom Line: Kmet has hit that up button on the elevator by building a good passing game rapport with Justin Fields and even with the same or fewer targets and a few less catches, he's likely to produce more yardage as the offense opens up for him to run underneath after making receptions.
Michael Fabiano's SI Fantasy Ranking: No. 17 among all NFL tight ends.
