How to Cash in on the Bears and Chargers

DJ Moore will be the focus of the Chargers secondary but it shouldn't deter fantasy owners because L.A. has been a punching bag for the top pass catchers.

It's been an automatic to pull of the lever for DJ Moore each week in fantasy football.

It's not so automatic this week.

Last week's short targeting by Bears quarterback Tyson Bagent with Justin Fields out injured did not really prevent Moore from making an impact, but the reduced yardage total has to be something fantasy owners look at this week when making out lineups.

Sure, Bagent says he has "a cannon" for an arm, but it might be a really small cannon based on last week's effort. You don't bring in the third-string quarterback to throw a Hail Mary in place of the backup, who is starting, unless you're pretty convinced his arm strength to make a throw of 50-plus yards is lacking.

Without that deep threat, Moore is really going to need to work to get open this week even against the Chargers' struggling secondary. 

The Chargers pass rush is another consideration. The ball might not even come out for Moore.

Then again, there are still reasons for fantasy owners to play him even when he has a quarterback no fantasy owner would have starting.

Here are this week's players to start and sit, and Moore's ability to contribute will definitely be thoroughly addressed.

Start 'Em

1. Chargers QB Justin Herbert

A slump of three straight games included two against very good Dallas and Kansas City defenses, but especially came against three teams with excellent pass rushers. The Bears lack even an average pass rush and can't afford to give away the coverage help to blitz. They'll be easy for Herbert to pick apart and it will look more like the early part of the season for the Bears defense. A 250-yard day with two or three TD passes wouldn't be out of the question for Herbert.

2. Chargers WR Keenan Allen

In years past with Mike Williams playing, it wasn't imperative for Allen to be open every play. It is now and he does it. Even if the Bears tag Jaylon Johnson on him, expect the 6-foot-2, 211-pound veteran to get open because he doesn't rely on speed but on his route running ability. Allen had 18 catches on 20 targets for 215 yards against Minnesota and the Vikings pressured Herbert well. He had 111 yards on eight catches against Tennessee and even managed seven for 85 and a TD against Dallas. He'll find ways to get his yardage and catches against a Bears defense that has improved but still lacks that outstanding game against a potent offense to certify its arrival.

3. Chargers RB Austin Ekeler

He might not pile up big rushing yardage because the Bears do appear to have this problem solved with Justin Jones, But he's always  a fantasy favorite for a reason when healthy and he's healthier than he's been all year. Andrew Billings and DeMarcus Walker holding their own against most running games. Ekeler will be the extra receiver on the field who turns short Herbert tosses into gains of 5 to 10 yards to keep the sticks moving. He's tough for the Bears to stop when he's catching it underneath their zone and the linebackers have to also be occupied by Gerald Everett and wide receivers like Joshua Moore.

4. Bears WR DJ Moore

The top receiver for most teams seems to burn the Chargers defense every week. Travis Kelce (179 yards), CeeDee Lamb (117 yards), Davante Adams (75 yards), Justin Jefferson (149 yards), Jaylen Waddle (78 yards) and Tyreek Hill (215 yards) all delivered blows against the Chargers defense. Even Tennessee's Trelon Burks (76 yards) managed to do it. Moore will get his targets and receptions even with Tyson Bagent throwing for a second straight week. It's just more likely to be shorter receptions and they'll need to count on yards after the catch. Moore has averaged nine targets a game since Week 3 and hit that number again last week. Expect it to happen again and when it does he'll find ways to gain against the Chargers'

5. Chargers WR Josh Palmer

He's nursing a knee injury and got in only one limited practice this week. Also, the Bears secondary has shown great improvement over the last three games. However, he is their No. 2 receiver and if capable of playing he'll be found by Herbert as he has all season and especially since Mike Williams' season-ending injury.

6. Chargers TE Gerald Everett

Everett definitely doesn't catch passes for big yardage but moves the stick with his shorter receptions on third-and-short. He'll be a go-to under the zone for first-down yardage.

7. Bears TE Robert Tonyan

Not sure why anyone would have Tonyan on a fantasy team but he could be a target this week for Bagent because someone besides Moore must step up and he's capable. With Cole Kmet heavily involved in blocking, he could be the next tight end catching screen passes and turning upfield.

8. Bears WR Darnell Mooney

Was it a coincidence that Mooney had his most targets since the opener with Bagent at QB? Is it because the rookie gets through his progression of receivers quicker? This game might tell for certain.

9. Chargers RB Joshua Kelley

The Chargers are not as opposed to using the running game as the Raiders seemed to be, and Kelley's 4.3 yards a carry can reward them for the thought. The Bears have to be thinking pass defense in this one and it's more likely their fifth-ranked run defense will be left vulnerable as a result.

Sit 'Em

1. Bears TE Cole Kmet

Nothing against Kmet but he's most likely going to get used again like last week, as mostly a pass blocker and run blocker, an extra lineman to help keep Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa at bay. With Darnell Wright still trying to get past a shoulder injury, he'll need the help. And the running back blocking help in the backfield won't be as dependable with Roschon Johnson just coming off of a concussion. It will need to be from the tight end. They don't give out fantasy points for blocking.

2. Chargers WR Josh Palmer

He's nursing a knee injury and got in only one limited practice this week. Also, the Bears secondary has shown great improvement over the last three games.

3. Bears RB D'Onta Foreman

With a quarterback so inexperienced, the first thought of any defense except the Raiders would be to shut down the running game first. You leave the rookie depending totally on his arm, and then work on fooling him with coverage disguises in the passing game. The Chargers have a good run defense anyway, as they allow 3.9 yards a carry. They'll be fortifying it with an extra player in the box, daring the rookie to throw against them.

4. Bears RB Roschon Johnson

He'll be a bit more of a threat against the Chargers because of his receiving ability, and will remove some of Foreman's carries and the receptions from last week. After a few weeks away, and playing with a new QB for the first time in a regular-season game, he'll need to adjust, as well.

5. Bears QB Tyson Bagent

If he could only get 162 yards against the Raiders and their defense with one pass rusher, what could he hope for against Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa? It could be a game where he averages 3 net passing yards per completion.

Defense

The Chargers win the first-half award for most disappointing defense. How they rank so poorly against the pass with Bosa and Mack on their team speaks poorly for their DBs and linebackers. The Bears defense is better now, but not proven against an offense with muliple weapons like the Chargers have. The Vikings was a good test, but Minnesota didn't have Jefferson in that game.

IDP is there any more of a lock than Mack? He loves his revenge games and the Bears traded him.

Before getting too caught up in the Jaylon Johnson hysteria, remember his two interceptions last week not only were Nos. 2 and 3 of his career, but they came against a desperate team trailing late in a game and were thrown by two backup quarterbacks. He's having a good season in coverage but not so good he should get elite level money or so good you should be using him in an IDP league and expecting takeaways.

The Betting Window

The Line: Chargers by 8 1/2 (over/under 46 1/2).

BearDigest Record: 3-4 overall, 4-3 ATS, 2-5 over/under.

BearDigest Pick: Chargers 27, Bears 17

NFL Best Bets

Record: 14-15-1

Last Week: 2-3

This Week:

Dolphins -9 1/2 vs. Patriots

Bears and Chargers under 46 1/2

Saints -1 1/2 at Colts

Vikings -1 1/2 at Packers

Falcons and Titans over 35 1/2

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven