Proper Bears Trade Compensation

Draft simulators are fun for picking specific players, but they also can tell what the Bears should expect in return for the top pick in the draft.

The NFL's open market rarely carries constant values.  

GMS and owners looking to make trades now with the Bears for the first pick in the draft might expect much less than they will have to pay later. Desperation can make for much more willing trade partners.

GM Ryan Poles says his phone hasn't rung off the hook yet but he anticipates to field his share of phone calls. Those calling in the late days of April might find they need to bring along extra enticements.

There should be multiple interested parties, driving up the value of the pick even more. Because it's a quarterback involved, the price goes even higher.

For now, there is only simulation. The NFL Draft Bible's mock simulator not only can give you an idea who the Bears can draft, but can also tell plenty about what they could expect to receiver in a trade for the top pick.

To get a better idea of what the Bears might be able to acquire, BearDigest explored the greatest possible trade value the simulator would actually allow for in a deal with each party for the top pick.

Here are the results of attempts.

Bears and Colts

Best Bears scenario: Colts get Bears' No. 1 pick, Bears get first-rounder (No. 4), second-rounder (35), fourth-rounder (106), first-rounder and fifth-rounder in 2024.

This is the connection everyone is making now because of the vow Colts GM Chris Ballard made to get his team a quarterback at all costs. NFL Draft Bible and Pro Football Focus have the Bears trading down with the Colts in their latest mock drafts. 

It also makes sense for the Bears because they could probably retain one of the top two defensive linemen by staying in the top four picks.

The best possible scenario on the NFL Draft Bible simulator netted the Bears one more first-round pick next year, another second-round and fourth-round pick this year, and a fifth-rounder next year for moving down from No. 1 to No. 4.

There is a dual purpose to making sure to get the first pick next year, especially from a team that could struggle in 2023. 

It's not something Justin Fields fans want to hear but if he regresses the same way in Year 3 that Mitchell Trubisky did in Year 3 under Matt Nagy, then they may want to move up as high as they can in the 2024 draft for a first-round pick to draft a quarterback and having two first-rounders would definitely help.

It's a consideration to keep in mind with all these trade scenarios offered in the simulation.

Bears and Texans

Best Bears scenarios: Texans get Bears' No. 1 pick, Bears get first-rounder (No. 4), second-rounder (33) and fourth-rounder or...

Texans get Bears' No. 1 pick, Bears get Texans' first-rounder (No. 12), plus their second-rounders (33 and 65), third-rounder (73) and their two first-round picks next year. 

It might seem unlikely for the Bears to deal with Houston but if the Texans have their hearts set on Bryce Young then they might be willing to trade up just to keep another team, like the Colts, from jumping ahead of them. However, the simulators aren't capable of taking into account all the potential poker going on between teams.

Taking Houston's second pick in the draft would be a small move that would only net the Bears a few extra picks, but they definitely would welcome those. They also could take a fifth and sixth instead of a fourth but doing this would bring them players with lower ceilings and they had this happen too much last year. The Bears had 11 picks and only three of them came in above the fifth round last year. They had too many players on the field last season who were late-round draft picks or undrafted free agents. Giving up quality should bring back quality athletes in return.

However, if they didn't mind taking Houston's other first-round pick to move way back to No. 12, the simulator says the Bears could just about clean out Houston's entire draft cache for this year. The Bears would get No. 12, No. 33, No. 65 and No. 73 and then a pair of first-round picks next year. This seems a bit unrealistic. If a GM gave up so many picks for the first pick in the draft, even at No. 12, they might need to answer to their owner. 

It's almost a Mike Ditka-Ricky Williams scenario.

Bears and Falcons

Best Bears scenarios: Falcons get Bears' first pick, the Bears move back to get No. 8 in Round 1, No. 44 in Round 2, No. 75 in Round 3, Nos. 110 and 113 in Round 4, a first-round pick in 2024 and picks in 2024 for the fourth, fifth and sixth round.

Atlanta has Desmond Ridder as a quarterback of the future. Are they pinning their future on a third-round pick? Jalen Hurts was a third-rounder and Russell Wilson, as well. Still, the top QB in the draft could ensure something much better.

Getting the Bears to move back to No. 8 will cost them dearly, although it wouldn't net the Bears two first-rounders in 2024 like moving back to No. 12 with Houston would.

Nevertheless, this is still a deal that would help the Bears get the QB they need in 2024 if Fields fails because it allows for a first-rounder  next year. 

They better keep the Falcons on speed dial.

NFL DRAFT BIBLE MOCK DRAFT SIMULATOR

Bears and Raiders

Best Bears scenarios: Raiders get top Bears pick and Bears get the seventh pick in Round 1, 38th pick in Round 2, 70th pick in Round 3, 109th pick in Round 4, then a first-round pick in 2024.

The Raiders do need a QB after putting Derek Carr in the discard pile. 

Speculation is they'll try for another veteran. Maybe they want free agent Tom Brady and then a rookie with the first pick in the draft to train under him. Or maybe they trade for Aaron Rodgers.

Or maybe they go young as in Bryce Young and deal a boatload of picks to the Bears, including that first-round pick in 2024 that could prove invaluable.

Bears and Panthers

Best Bears scenarios:  Panthers get Bears' top pick, Bears get ninth pick in Round 1, 39th pick in Round 2, 60th pick in Round 2, 92nd pick in Round 3, then also the Panthers' first-round pick and fifth-rounder next year according to the simulator.

The Panthers no longer shuttle between quarterbacks who have failed elsewhere the way they have over the past few seasons. That should be enough for them to want the this trade or even giving up a few more. Trading down this far to No. 9 probably means the Bears give up on getting Anderson or Carter but they could get Clemson's edge Myles Murphy. .

Bears and Seahawks

Best Bears scenarios: Bears give Seahawks No. 1 while Bears get No. 5 in Round 1, No. 20 in Round 1, then No. 37 in Round 2 and No. 83 in Round 3.

This one potential deal might cause some to doubt Seattle would even want a quarterback because Geno Smith got the Seahawks into the playoffs. 

Right.

Just study what he has done the rest of his career and it's very easy not to be convinced he is any type of long-term answer. The first pick in the draft would provide a chance at Bryce Young to Seattle.

The Seahawks have the fifth pick and if they really wanted a QB they could settle for Ohio State's C.J. Stroud. Some would call him a better option than Young because he is taller but there would be no guarantee that at No. 5 the Seahawks could get Stroud. They might, though.

If the Bears move down with Seattle they could lose their chance at one of the top two defensive linemen. They could still get Texas Tech defensive end Tyree Wilson or Murphy. They also could get a wide receiver or offensive tackle or plenty of other things with what the simulator says they would be owed by the Seahawks.

What they wouldn't get is next year's first-rounder, although they could opt for a first-rounder next year instead of Seattle's 20th pick this year but then the Seahawks would need to pay them an extra late pick on Day 3.

Bottom Line

If these teams drafting from No. 7 through 9 decide they really want the first pick and are willing to pay for it, the Bears will have a tough choice to make about giving up on the top two defensive linemen in the draft. They would then need to rely on their scouting to find value with a ton of picks they would have for the rest of the draft, in some cases after Round 1 but in some with an extra first-rounder.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven