One Month Out for Open Season on Bears

Free agency starts in a month and all of the changes made at Halas Hall since the end of the season suggest different paths ahead for some of their defensive free agents than right after the season ended.

In one month the legal recruiting period for free agency will have begun and on March 16 the official signings follow.

Since the season ended, great change came to Halas Hall with the hiring of GM Ryan Poles and an entirely new coaching staff.

What was, is no more.

The personnel situation changes entirely for some players based on what new coach Matt Eberflus wants to accomplish on the field. Poles, assistant GM Ian Cunningham and Eberflus have reviewed film to have a better idea which free agents fit what they'll do.

Free agency isn't the only decision teams need to make at this time. The deadline for hitting the salary cap comes March 16 and it constitutes a key deadline as teams try to comply and either restructure contracts or cut players. Many players around the league who are not slated to be free agents will then be dumped into the marketplace.

Last year that deadline meant cutting Kyle Fuller and restructuring contracts for the Bears. This year there is no such pressing deadline need for the team at $28 million in cap space, unless they decide to make a run at signing a really high-priced free agent like wide receiver Davante Adams.

So the decisions on their own roster could be less apparent in the days leading directly up to free agency. They can retain players they might see a possible use for while they try to sign more exact fits in free agency or even much later in the draft.

Teams who have new head coaches can hold an extra minicamp and it must occur prior to the draft. So you could get a rather strange mix of players who might not fit a new Bears system with those who actually do, but the bulk of free agency should be completed by that point because it would be in April. 

Here is the situation facing their own free agents on defense, and it has been altered significantly because of the scheme change.

Gone

Akiem Hicks

He is not a fit for the new Bears system and it appeared at season's end his age and Ryan Pace's plans for the team were to let him leave, anyway. Now the likelihood of Hicks' departure is all the greater in a new defensive scheme. Hicks did line up as a three technique, on the guard's outside shoulder. But he wasn't necessarily used like a traditional three technique in a one-gap, attacking defensive front as the Bears will use going forward. So as he turns 33 during this season, look for Hicks to wind up in a place like Seattle with Sean Desai, Minnesota with Ed Donatell or the Chargers under head coach Brandon Staley. These are all places where he'd be an ideal scheme fit for the Vic Fangio style of 3-4 defense. Even Jacksonville or the New York Giants would be possible ideal alternatives as their new defenses would fit a big defensive end.

Unlikely

DT Bilal Nichols

The chance of Nichols returning is not affected as much by scheme as with Hicks, partly because he is younger but also because he has been such a versatile player. An end in a 3-4, he could play anywhere from three technique to the nose in the 4-3. The 4-3 nose is just another defensive tackle spot. He's already played nose in the 3-4 using two-gap responsibility but also has been deployed at three technique and attacked in their nickel defense as a pass rusher. In short, Nichols could be an ideal swing defensive lineman in a 4-3. They need this as they will alternate defensive linemen greatly to keep their "rush men" fresh, and he could fill either defensive tackle spot. Only the cost will alter Nichols' status for free agency, because he must be regarded as a backup 4-3 tackle and shouldn't get starter's money for the Bears. Because the Bears are not cash-strapped, they could lean more toward retention. However, a 3-4 team needing line help might be very willing to outbid them. In fact, the change of nine coaches has opened up new markets for 3-4 defensive linemen. Pro Football Focus calls Nichols the 11th best interior defensive lineman in free agency. So he will be in demand and that alone can make his return less likely. The Bears could find a more ideal one-gap fit in free agency, anyway.

ILB Alec Ogletree

An inside linebacker in a 3-4 and already in his 30s, his return would seem unlikely. Ogletree does have more versatility than some 3-4 inside linebackers because he started out playing outside linebacker in a 4-3 and also played middle linebacker. However, he hasn't been in a system like that since 2016 when he was 26 years old. He's not moving back to a position where he potentially would need to cover more ground at the age of 31 this season. The Bears were desperate when they signed him. They brought him in off the street after being out of football because he'd been cut by a 2-14 team. So the smart move is moving on.

ILB Christian Jones

The Bear turned Lion turned Bear probably is at the end in Chicago. Although he has played middle linebacker a bit in a 4-3, he's better suited at this late stage of his career to be an inside linebacker in a 3-4. Younger coverage linebackers both inside and outside are goals for the Bears in the draft and free agency and Jones doesn't fit this.

ILB Joel Iyiegbuniwe

He's completely unaffected by the scheme. This is because he hasn't shown he can play regardless of scheme. The Bears haven't deemed him good enough to be the next man up. So apparently he doesn't have the skills to do it or he would have been a backup instead of Jones. They went and dragged Ogletree in off the street rather than play Iyiegbuniwe. Special teams has been Iyiegbuniwe's strong suit but any decent linebacker could probably say as much.

CB Artie Burns

The cover-2 system isn't his thing. He came from the Steelers, where he had been asked to cover more man-to-man or in fire zones as they blitzed, and he's not an ideal skill-set fit. They would do better with a draft pick or even undrafted free agent who has cover-2 abilities and great speed. Above all else, the Bears need greater speed in the secondary.

S Tashaun Gipson

Gipson at a younger stage in his career would be fast enough and versatile enough to play the 4-3 umbrella as one of the two safeties back in coverage. He'll turn 32 this season. It's more age than system change ushering him toward the exit.

Still Fits

S Deon Bush

His value as a backup has been system knowledge, hitting ability and special teams. He hasn't been used extensively in coverage but hasn't done poorly when he played with only 45% completions allowed on the 42 times he's been targeted, according to Sportradar. Bush has allowed two career TD passes in those 42 targets. His technique sometimes breaks down when defending deep passes while matched up against offenses with five receivers. A team could do much worse at backup safety than Bush.

S DeAndre Houston-Carson

The last two years gave proof Houston-Carson can cover in zones. They even used him as a backup nickel cornerback and an extra DB in dime coverages. More than this, he has become the face of their special teams coverage units. All of these are qualities the new style of defense can use in a backup safety. And he really fits the requirements of the new HITS philosophy because he hustles. Just think about his tackle of Debo Samuel at the 1-yard line to end an 83-yard screen play. The problem the Bears face with Houston-Carson is other teams could view his season the same way Pro Football Focus did. PFF had him graded as the 10th best safety in the league and 12th best in pass coverage, albeit at less than half the snaps as starters. Someone with that kind of skill can command more than the common veteran's minimum salary for a backup. In the first year of a new defense, the Bears might not want to commit extra bonus money to a reserve but in this case it would be money well spent.

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