How Bears Climb Hurdle to Playoff Team

Analysis: It's not even going to take a quarterback or any offensive player but one key defensive player to push the Bears over the top.

When Bears GM Ryan Poles fielded questions several days after the season ended, the 75 to 80 percent issue was sure to come up.

Poles had labeled his team's talent 75 to 80 percent of where it needed to be while talking to media after roster cuts.

After a 7-10 year when the defense surged at season's end, Poles had to know the same question would come up and it was put to him how far they had to go to be truly competitive.

"I want to go through the tape from the whole year and get with my front office on that, but it's getting smaller, which is good," Poles said, tip-toeing as best he could.

It might sound like crazy talk but there is a player who could make the Bears immediate contenders in the NFC North.

It's not Caleb Williams. At least in his first year, it's difficult to envision how he'd be a lot better than Justin Fields. It's not Marvin Harrison Jr., although he'd no doubt help after the receiver corps consisted of DJ Moore, tight end Cole Kmet and then Darnell Mooney for less than two receptions per week.

It's not even a center, although they have to get someone who can do this more proficiently. They may need to get two, a rookie to prepare and a veteran free agent for while the rookie is getting there.

It's assumed they'll have someone playing the position who knows what they are doing because they have the money to afford a free agent. Players there last year—Lucas Patrick and Dan Feeney—are free agents while guard/center Cody Whitehair is a potential cap cut candidate. Someone must do it and they'll be looking to add someone at least average or better. That would be much higher than they've had the last few seasons.

The key acquisition isn't even an offensive player.

Strengthen a Strength to Be Dominant

The Bears need another defensive tackle or end to put pressure on quarterbacks. Preferably it would be a tackle.

The idea last year was the interior pressure but it never developed to the extent to complement Montez Sweat.

The free agent who can immediately transform the Bears into a playoff team is Kansas City Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones.

Many teams might be able to say this but the Bears already have put their defense into position to shut down opponents in the NFC North. Eberflus went through a series of comments about the defense's accomplishments at season's end.

"Defensively the last eight games, first in the league in scoring defense, that was really good to see the guys come together that way," Eberflus said. "We were fifth in the league in rush defense the last eight. The (defensive) quarterback rating, the QBR, we were first in the league, so really proud of that, and then also the interceptions. The interception and ball hawking that our defense displayed was really good.

"Then what's the most important set is the turnover margin. How did we go 5-3 in the last eight? It was really the turnover margin. It's plus-12. That's second in the NFL during that time. So those are all winning ways I talk to the players about that, and that's what they are, and that's proof and progress that we've done a good job there."

The Bears defense was on the brink of dominance and only one of the final six opponents scored more than 17 points. That was Cleveland in a 20-17 loss the Bears gave away after leading 17-7 in the third quarter.

To push the defense over the top, a defensive tackle who ranks among the best in the league would be ideal, especially Jones.

The 6-foot-6, 310-pounder is playing at a level like Aaron Donald and is a five-time first- or second-team All-Pro five times and Pro Bowl player five times. He's a perfect fit for this defense because he can move outside to end or play tackle and play the run or the pass.

Jones could be for the inside of the defense what Sweat has been for the edge.

Jones had 39 pressures, 17 quarterback knockdowns and 10 1/2 sacks this season for 16 games after 15 1/2 last season.

He hasn't had less than 6 1/2 sacks since his rookie season of 2016.  

Jones has had the multiplier effect with the Chiefs that Sweat has had in Chicago, making others better. Kansas City's George Karlaftis has had six and 10 1/2 sacks his first two seasons with so much attention diverted to stopping Jones.

When the Bears played Green Bay to close the season, the defensive line had problems getting to Jordan Love. They didn't have a sack after DeMarcus Walker's in the first quarter. Love's problems throwing the ball away under durress were apparent in the NFC Championship Game. This is how the Bears must compete with Green Bay's offense. They can't do it by blitzing.

Pressure off the defense's left edge and in the middle of the line will make it difficult to contend with them. Stepping up into the pocket to throw won't be a simple matter.

Sweat would never be facing double teams with Jones charging from the center of the line.

There are problems, of course.

At 30, next season, it could worry some.

They'd be signing him to play for three or four years, not for seven years. A great defensive tackle can be effective still at ages 33 or 34. Reggie White was 37 years old when he was defensive player of the year.

Kansas City could tag Jones again this year and ruin everything. They did last year, then signed him to a one-year deal with a bunch of incentives.

The Chiefs are projected at $24 million available under the cap according to Overthecap.com but they also have cornerback L'Jarius Sneed to pay and that also will be expensive. It would seem one of those two would not be affordable and Sneed is only 27 years old.

"It's extremely hard because you have two keystone players there," GM Brett Veach told reporters this week at the Super Bowl.

The Problems

If they don't find Jones is kept off the market, there's always the chance he'd be too costly.

The Bears are well equipped to handle this, though, with around $50 million in cap space if they make cap cut victims of Eddie Jackson and Whitehair. They were probably going to do this anyway.

The Spotrac estimate is $28.4 million a year. He was at $26.8 million this year. Pro Football Focus projects him at $30 million a year.

Especially if the Bears are not going to have the expense of a new Justin Fields contract, they can afford this kind of a deal. They can afford it either way this year and possibly even in 2025 even if they do keep Fields as the QB.

The Bears better go get him because the Lions have a little more cap space available this year than they do and can definitely use a dominant defensive tackle to solidify their pass rush, as well.

Eberlus has contantly talked about the need for a dominant three technique to make his defensive scheme work.

Jones is good enough as a defensive lineman he can line up at end, at three technique and even nose tackle and dominate opponents anywhere up and down the line. He'd only make Sweat that much more effective. He'd multiple the multiplier. 

Together they'd make certain the ball comes out under duress, if it comes out at all.

They could quickly take the North this way and not give it back, as Poles suggested.

Of course, if they actually want to win a Super Bowl, they better make sure they have an offense, too.

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