No Shot for Bears? Six of Last Seven Mediocre Playoff Teams Say Different

Letting mediocre teams into the NFL playoffs has produced surprising results as six of the last seven wild-card round games played by teams with .500 records or worse were victories.

When the playoffs expanded this season to seven teams in each conference, the likelihood a .500 team or worse would make postseason seemed greater than ever.

So it's no surprise the 8-8 Bears and 7-9 Washington are in the wild-card round.

Coach Matt Nagy would argue none of this matters now, and actually there are numbers to support this. Nagy is just pointing toward their momentum and work the past month regardless of an 8-8 record.

"What they care about is that they understand that they earned it," Nagy said. "They worked hard after. Someone the other day said that we're the third team since 1970 to lose six in a row and go to the playoffs. So you lose six in a row, you still make the playoffs, and that’s not easy. 8-8. 
"No it’s not perfect. We understand that. It's not perfect. We have a lot of things to get better at, but we can't worry about that. Now what we need to do is worry about everything we can to be the best team that we can on Sunday against the Saints."

The real surprising part of mediocrity in the NFL playoffs is the history of how .500 teams have done once they got in postseason. 

At least in percentages, the Bears have a 50-50 shot. Trends say they have a much better chance than this.

There have been 12 teams in the postseason with .500 records or worse and half of them won their first playoff game.

It didn't start out this way when fewer teams made the playoffs, but as the playoff pool increased and mediocrity was allowed in, more and more times the teams with .500 marks or worse scored opening-round victories.

Between 1985 and 1999 five teams reached the playoffs with 8-8 records and each one lost.

One of those was the 1990 New Orleans Saints. They came to Chicago and Mike Ditka's Bears beat them 16-6 in a completely boring playoff game only worth remembering because of the way Bears fans pelted the Saints and their fans with snowballs.

However, since 2004, the .500 teams have a record of 6-1 in the wild-card round.

The first .500 teams to win playoff games were the 2004 Minnesota Vikings and the 2004 St. Louis Rams. The Vikings that year traveled to Green Bay and beat Brett Favre and the Packers 31-17. The Rams won at Seattle 27-20.

This stretch of six wins in seven years included the 2010 Seattle Seahawks, who had the worst record ever for a playoff team of 7-9. They went on the road and upset New Orleans 41-36, then earned a trip to Soldier Field and lost in a big game for Jay Cutler and Greg Olson, 35-24.

Also included in that stretch of six wins in seven games is Tim Tebow's upset of Pittsburgh in 2011 with John Fox's Denver Broncos.

There is a caveat to all of this.

The .500 teams didn't play second seeds in the playoffs then. This is the first year a second seed has to play in the wild-card round in this new format.

Also, it's the first year for a seventh seed in the playoffs, other than during a strike-shortened season. That's an entirely lower level of mediocrity for the playoffs when they include this Bears team and Washington. And they're playing an entirely higher level of team when they get in the playoffs.

The other problem ahead for any team with an 8-8 record or worse that advances?

None ever won the second playoff game.

Making Mediocrity Work

1985 Cleveland Browns 8-8

Divisional Round: Miami Dolphins 24, Cleveland Browns 21

1990 New Orleans Saints 8-8

Wild-Card Round: Bears 16, New Orleans Saints 6 

1991 New York Jets 8-8

Wild-Card Round: Houston Oilers 17, New York Jets 10

1999 Dallas Cowboys 8-8

Wild-Card Round: Minnesota Vikings 27, Dallas Cowboys 10

1999 Detroit Lions 8-8

Wild-Card Round: Washington Redskins 27, Detroit Lions 13

2004 Minnesota Vikings 8-8

Wild-Card Round: Minnesota Vikings 31, Green Bay Packers 17

Divisional Round: Philadelphia Eagles 27, Minnesota Vikings 14

2004 St. Louis Rams 8-8

Wild-Card Round: St. Louis Rams 27, Seattle Seahawks 20

Divisional Round: Seattle Seahawks 47, St. Louis Rams 17

2006 New York Giants 8-8

 Wild-Card Round: Philadelphia Eagles 23, New York Giants 20

2008 San Diego Chargers 8-8

Wild-Card Round: San Diego Chargers 23, Indianapolis Colts 17

Divisional Round: Pittsburgh Steelers 35, San Diego Chargers 24

2010 Seattle Seahawks 7-9 

Wild-Card Round: Seattle Seahawks 41, New Orleans Saints 36

Divisional Round: Bears 35, Seattle Seahawks 24 

2011 Denver Broncos 8-8

Wild-Card Round: Denver Broncos 29, Pittsburgh Steelers 23

Divisional Round: New England Patriots 45, Denver Broncos 10

2014 Carolina Panthers 7-8-1

Wild-Card Round: Carolina Panthers 27, Arizona Cardinals 16 

Divisional Round: Seattle Seahawks 31, Carolina Panthers 17

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