Can Bears Defense Hold a Lead?

Even good defenses can't hold leads sometimes in the NFL but are Matt Eberflus' defenses more susceptible to this? Here's a history of what's happened.
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After seeing a third blown fourth-quarter lead of 10 points or more, it was easy to remember a conversation with a source very familiar with the Colts after the Bears hired Matt Eberflus.

The person said Eberflus' defenses will take over games and can be downright explosive, definitely cause turnovers and play the run really well. 

Then there was the asterisk: Holding leads is sometimes a problem for his defenses.

This sounded a bit like the later years of the Lovie Smith cover-2 defenses.

At the time, it's just one more bit of information on a new coach and, after all, the Bears under Matt Nagy hadn't had too many leads to protect the previous few seasons. So no big deal.

Then Sunday that conversation came to mind after another come-from-ahead loss.

Is there a problem with Eberflus' defenses finishing games?

Eberflus admitted he probably should have used a different defense on Amari Cooper's 51-yard TD play. After the game he said he thought cover-2 would have been a good defense there.

"So, that play is a deep crossing route, obviously, the corner has to make a good vision and break," Eberflus added about it on Monday. "Break one-third the distance when the ball is in the air. We got to do a good job of getting him on the ground. A lot of times what you do is you track the ball and not understand where the reception area is, and they've got to do a good job of understanding where it is and get him on the ground."

Eberflus, in so many words, said he wished he had back the decision to use Justin Jones in pass coverage while bringing pass rush pressure off the opposite side. It seemed a case of the non-blitzer getting a bit too carried away when he did decide to blitz. There's a time and place for tricks like this.

"You know, I've been calling defenses for 12 years, 13 years now, and every game you have three or four that you want back," Eberflus said. "So, again, that one there, when it doesn't work in a critical situation, of course you'd like to see it work in that situation, but it didn't."

The time to use a play like that is when the opponent is backed up and the quarterback isn't going to retreat and lob to lob it over the 300-pounder to his tight end. They won't risk going backward that way near their goal line. Bears fans know all about this. Remember B.J. Raji dropping back off the line in coverage with the Bears offense backed up deep and Caleb Hanie throwing? It went right to the Packers defensive lineman for a touchdown return in the 2010 NFC Championship Game. 

It turned out to be the decisive points in a Packers 21-14 win.

It doesn't seem like a good time to use the tactic when the offense is near midfield and is trying to get into field goal range to win it, especially against a wise old QB who can easily detect massive linemen trying to behave like little people.

Three blown leads late seems like too many. Does history suggest the defenses of the Bears defensive coordinator/head coach can't hold leads?

It has been known to happen, although his defenses have definitely protected leads, too.

Whether they've blown enough leads to say it's an issue is best left to personal judgment. Teams lose leads all the time in the NFL. Games always seem to go down to the end.

Also, it has to be remembered it's complementary football that wins games. A key first down here or there by the offense helps the defense finish the job Sunday, particularly on the fourth-and-1 failed run by Justin Fields. It could have been the case in other games Eberflus coached in the past, as well.

Be the judge. Here are come-from-ahead losses later in games involving Eberflus defenses.

2018

  • After Andrew Luck hit T.Y. Hilton for a 5-yard TD pass the Colts led 23-10. They couldn't preserve the lead down the stretch as Andy Dalton found A.J. Green for a 38-yard TD and the Bengals went on to score 24 straight points in a 38-23 win to open the Frank Reich/Eberflus era in Indy.
  • The Colts led 16-13 in the fourth quarter after a 28-yard Adam Vinatieri field goal but Wendell Smallwood scored to end a 75-yard TD drive with 3:02 left and the Colts lost to Philadelphia 20-16.
  • The Colts fought back from an 18-point deficit and led 34-31 on Vinatieri's field goal with six minutes to play, but then Deshaun Watson led drives to 29-yard and 37-yard Ka'imi Fairbairn field goals and the Texans won 37-34.

2019

  • The Colts led 24-23 in the fourth quarter with 8:43 remaining but Ben Roethlisberger led a drive to the winning 26-yard Chris Boswell field goal with 6:36 remaining and Indianapolis couldn't counter in a 26-24 road loss to the Steelers.
  • The Colts pulled into a 12-10 lead in a tight defensive struggle but yielded two drives to field goals in the fourth quarter and lost 16-12 to Miami.
  • Indianapolis took a 17-10 lead over Houston in the third quarter but gave up 10 points over the last 18 minutes, including Deshaun Watson's go-ahead TD pass with 12:34 to play in a 24-17 loss.
  • The Colts led Tennessee 17-7 midway through the third quarter but then the Titans took command behind Derrick Henry's 149-yard rushing game and two Ryan Tannehill TD passes to win 31-17 with 24 straight points.
  • Tampa Bay trailed the Colts 35-21 late in the third quarter but Jameis Winston led a comeback in the final 18 minutes and 18 seconds for a 38-35 Buccaneers victory.
  • Jacksonville trailed the Colts 20-13 in the second quarter but that was far too much time to protect a lead and Gardner Minshew led the Jaguars back for a 27-24 win on Dec. 8, 2019.

2020

  • As if to show he could do it again, Minshew faced a 20-17 deficit against the Colts in the fourth quarter of the season opener, but led a 75-yard drive ending in his 22-yard TD pass and the Jaguars tacked on a field goal with 2:50 to play for their only victory of the season.
  • This one sounds a bit like the Denver collapse this year by the Bears. On Dec. 27 of 2020, the Steelers were down 24-7 in the third quarter and Ben Roethlisberger threw three touchdown passes in the final 18:16 while Indianapolis didn't score again in a 28-24 Pittsburgh win. The Colts went on to win four of their last five games and get into the playoffs but this was their lone loss in that stretch.

2021

  • In another game much like this year's late disasters, the Colts took a 25-9 lead with 12 minutes remaining. Then Lamar Jackson led touchdown drives of 78 and 75 yards culminating in TD passes of 5 and 4 yards to Mark Andrews. The Ravens converted both two-point PATs and won it in overtime on a 5-yard TD pass to Marquise Brown, 31-25.
  • Down early by 11, the Colts rallied and went ahead of the Rams 21-17 in the fourth quarter on an Ashton Dulin fumble recovery in the end zone, but then the defense couldn't prevent a Matthew Stafford-led march to Cooper Kupp's go-ahead 10-yard TD pass. They tied it on a field goal with 35-yard field goal midway through the fourth quarter again and then lost on Matt Gay's 38-yard Field goal with 2:23 left, 27-24.
  • The Colts led the Titans 24-21 after three quarters in a 34-31 loss. They fell behind on a pick-6, 31-24, a play they definitely couldn't blame on the defense. They came back to tie it on Jonathan Taylor's 1-yard run with 22 seconds left, but lost on a 44-yard Randy Bullock field goal in overtime.
  • Indy was up 17-13 after three quarters, gave up an 11-yard Hunter Renfrow TD catch from Derek Carr but rallied to tie and then lost to the Raiders on a Daniel Carlson field goal of 33 yards as time expired, 23-20.
  • The Colts led 24-14 in the third quarter, fell behind 31-24, tied it with 3:29 left on a Jonathan Taylor TD run but lost 38-31 when they couldn't prevent a 75-yard drive engineered by Tom Brady. Leonard Fournette's 28-yard run provided the game-winning points with 20 seconds remaining.

2022

  • In a season when the Bears lacked the talent for too many leads, they battled back for a 22-21 advantage in the fourth quarter against Minnesota on a 51-yard Cairo Santos field goal but then gave up a 75-yard drive with Kirk Cousins scoring from a yard out in a 29-22 loss. All people remember from the game is how Justin Fields staged a late drive but Ihmir Smith-Marsette had the ball stolen from his grasp from behind in Vikings territory to end it.
  • The Bears led Detroit 24-17 and 30-24 in the fourth quarter. It would have been 31-24 but Santos missed a PAT after Justin Fields' 67-yard go-ahead TD run. Jared Goff led a 91-yard drive that Jamaal Williams finished with a 1-yard TD run and Michael Badgley's PAT kick won it for the Lions 31-30 at Soldier Field.
  • Leading Green Bay 19-10 going into the fourth quarter, the Bears couldn't stop the Packers on the ground. A.J. Dillon scored on a 21-yard run, then Aaron Rodgers directed a drive to a field goal and Christian Watson broke a 46-yard end-around. The Packers outscored the Bears 18-0 in the final 14:41 to win 28-19.

2023

  • The biggest blown lead. Denver trailed 28-7 after Khalil Herbert's 2-yard TD catch from Justin Fields with 4:11 left in the third quarter. Russell Wilson and the Broncos scored the last 24 points, the first two on Wilson TD passes, the tying points on Jonathan Cooper's 35-yard fumble return on a strip sack of Fields. Then Wil Lutz won it for the Broncos with 1:46 left on a 51-yard field goal, 31-28.
  • The Bears led 26-14 but allowed a 32-yard Jared Goff TD pass to Jameson Williams with 2:59 left, went three-and-out, David Montgomery capped a 73-yard TD drive to put Detroit ahead and then Justin Fields lost the ball out of the back of the end zone on a strip-sack with 22 seconds left in a 31-26 loss at Detroit.
  • The Bears on Sunday led Cleveland 17-7 in the third quarter of a 20-17 loss after Santos' 41-yard field goal. Cleveland scored the next 13 points, including a 51-yard TD pass from Joe Flacco to Amari Cooper to tie it and Dustin Hopkins' game-winning 34-yard field goal with 32 seconds remaining. It's tough to be too hard on their defense about blowing the lead when they scored one touchdown, returned the ball on another interception to the 1-yard line and took it away three times. 

The tough part about the last two Bears losses is they should have the personnel they need to hang on now in tight battles after Montez Sweat's arrival. 

Apparently, something else needs to be added or changed.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven


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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.