How Aaron Rodgers' Decision Impacts the Bears
The great day is at hand.
The earth will shake, the clouds will part and descending slowly to earth to make his announcement will come the Almighty Aaron Rodgers. His future course will be decreed.
So it shall be written. So it shall be done.
All sarcasm aside, March 8 could be a big day for the Bears and rest of the NFC North but especially the Bears because there has been no personalized message delivered during a game with the Vikings or Lions similar to: "I still own you."
The plague upon the Bears could be lifted with Rodgers' announcement, which was reported by Denver reporter Mike Klis to be coming on March 8.
There's every reason still to expect this announcement not to happen until the weekend or even as free agency begins on March 16.
At least the announcement doesn't need to happen until then, and if the quarterback diva known as Rodgers can gain even more attention by waiting for a longer amount of time then everyone should anticipate he will take that route.
If Rodgers goes to Denver or maybe Pittsburgh, the Bears might never face him again. Or they might face him just once again.
Then again, with their luck they'd finally make it back to the Super Bowl for the first time since 2006 and he'd be the one waiting to face them. He's proven he can't win an NFC championship but maybe he could win an AFC title and then a Super Bowl that way.
How much would the Bears enjoy seeing Rodgers out of the division?
It's certain Matt Nagy and Ryan Pace would have enjoyed it more. Ryan Poles and Matt Eberflus haven't been owned yet.
If Rodgers actually does leave, one must wonder whether he can really survive without his personal property in Chicago available to fatten up his statistics twice a year. Other teams haven't contributed as readily as the Bears have.
In all seriousness, the Bears really could impact Rodgers' thinking during this farcical waiting game everyone must endure until the announcement.
If you're Rodgers and you see the Vikings and your personal property, the Bears, both rebuilding with new defensive systems and with new head coaches and needing to bring in more players who fit their systems, and you still play the Detroit Lions twice a year -- alone in last place four straight years -- then why would you ever even consider leaving the NFC North?
Rodgers could own the whole division without trying hard until he retires. That IS retirement.
Here are the likely scenarios after the big announcement.
If Rodgers stays:
The Packers continue playing the role of NFC North favorite but it will be more difficult. They'll lose some front-line defensive players due to the salary cap, free agent receivers and possibly some good offensive linemen. Adam Schefter reported they could tag Davante Adams before the deadline. This is really stretching the imagination and dollar but it makes sense because they would pay him much less than he will get if he hits the open market. Still, they were $29.3 million over the cap on Monday according to Overthecap.com. That's not counting the money for Adams, and there are reports they are interested in some free agent pass rushers. Restructuring deals can only go so far. Rodgers is going to carry a much bigger burden any way you slice it if he stays. It's going to be all the more difficult for him with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett in Denver and QB coach Luke Getsy running the Bears offense.
OR
Rodgers is a year older at 38. Not everyone is Tom Brady or even Drew Brees. His decline begins. This is the age Ben Roethlisberger's game started heading south, Philip Rivers too. The Bears and Vikings actually have hired competent people to coach and run the organizations and even the Lions start to improve. With all their defense depleted because they chose to keep a 38-year-old quarterback, and without their key assistants, it's too difficult for Rodgers. He's not able to carry a team and doesn't have that valuable buffer with Hackett and Getsy between himself and Matt LaFleur. Things start to deterioriate gradually, then more and more rapidly. End of Packers.
OR
Nothing much improves with the Bears or Vikings, but Rodgers is not really challenged all year and in the playoffs when he is challenged he'll be quarterbacking a softer, weaker team that won't have the strong surrounding cast they have had in past years. He will not be losing NFC title games. He simply won't be making them. The Packers will be a one-and-done team for a few years and then he'll retire.
If Rodgers leaves...
The Packers won't be as good on offense, obviously. If it's Jordan Love at quarterback they could have some real problems with growing pains because he hasn't played much and when he has he hasn't been particularly good. If they bring in another veteran starter with the money they save, the drop-off could be softened. The Green Bay defense will remain intact or even improve with a second year under Joe Barry and keep them competitive. They could win the division in a tough fight, but again would be challenged to make the Super Bowl against better offensive teams from the NFC West.
OR
Think New England in its first year without Tom Brady, struggling around .500 and susceptible to being beaten now by any of the other NFC North teams who for years had to worry that Rodgers always countering when they took their best shot. The Packers will begin trying to live like the rest of the NFL does, without that hall-of-fame quarterback for 30 years. It's a situation they haven't had to endure since they were the ones who were owned by Mike Ditka and the Bears in the 1980s.
And Note
The one option not mentioned is Rodgers stays and Green Bay gets better, goes on and wins an NFC championship as well as the Super Bowl.
That ship left the dock. It departed on a blocked punt and on the foot of Robbie Gould.
Whatever way you look at it, the Packers can't improve this year because of the losses of key players and coaches, or, on the other hand, because of the loss of Rodgers.
It's up to Justin Fields and the rest of the NFC North to make their move.
Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven
