How Bears Could Meet Possible Deshaun Watson Trade Parameters

Two firsts, two seconds and two young starting defensive players have been put forth by one Texans expert as the trade demand for Deshaun Watson, and the Bears could meet this but others could do it better.

John McClain's expertise on matters of the NFL is normally unquestioned.

The Deshaun Watson case then seems to be the exception to the rule.

McClain, the 45-year veteran of NFL coverage from Houston, first said the Texans ownership would not trade Deshaun Watson. However, now he's apparently backtracking on social media by saying they would want two first-rounders, two second-rounders and two young defensive starters.

This is quite a bit different than they won't trade him.

It's also a price the Bears could afford if they felt the inclination. But would they want to pay this?

It's actually unlikely the Texans would take a Bears trade on these terms before they would accept one from several other teams, so if these terms are accurate it would probably take even more than this for the Bears to acquire Watson.

The key problem is the Bears' picks in relation to the Jets and Miami Dolphins, who both wouldn't mind having Watson.  

However, the Bears would be able only to offer up the 20th pick and 52nd picks this year, then unknown first- and second-round picks next year.

For all the Texans know, they could be taking the 20th pick this year and maybe the 25th or 26th pick next year and the 53rd pick this year and maybe the 60th or 59th pick next year if the dealt with the Bears and accepted those trade terms.

Wouldn't Watson be worth more than two late first-round picks and two late second-round picks?

Well, at least the young starting defensive players part of the equation would be easily remedied by the Bears.

The Bears have three good, young starting defensive players in Roquan Smith, Jaylon Johnson and Bilal Nichols. Smith and Johnson especially would be attractive considering the type of defense the Texans will want to play. As a middle linebacker, Smith could do the deep drop in Lovie Smith's cover-2 style of defense and be extremely effective. Lovie Smith has been hired as Texans defensive coordinator and Roquan Smith has great speed to make plays all over the field.

Actually, Roquan Smith would fit better as the play-making weak-side linebacker Lovie Smith had with Lance Briggs in Chicago and in Tampa with Derrick Brooks.  Smith is the same height and in his third year was 5 pounds lighter than Brooks was in his final year. So essentially they're the same size. Smith has the speed to make an impact in coverage or blitzing.

The Brian Urlacher role in Lovie's defense would be better suited for a taller linebacker.

Johnson's abilities might not be suitable for the Texans. He was lauded by Pro Football Focus as a player expected to break out next year because he broke up 13 passes in the 13 games he played.

However, PFF also pointed out Johnson gave up 14 receptions of 15 yards or more and many of those came in zone coverage. It caused them to rank Johnson fifth from the bottom in the league in zone coverage grade among outside cornerbacks. Lovie Smith's defense is heavily zone-based, even more so than the one the Bears are now. 

Nichols might be a better fit for Smith's scheme because he does have 3-technique ability, although the Bears have used him up and down the line of scrimmage. He's usually been a two-gap defender but has been one who occasionally shoots gaps and makes plays. So he easily could be a 3-technique guy.

Either way, this part of the trade is the part easiest for the Bears to meet requirements but the most difficult in another way because of how difficult it would be to make up for the loss of these players.

These are defensive standouts who are still on their first contracts. If the Bears had to suddenly replace them, it might be virtually impossible to find substitutes in this scenario because they'd be trading away their first- and second-round picks for the next two years.

In Johnson's case, they at least have a few young defensive backs on hand who might be worth training for the spot in Kindle Vildor or Duke Shelley. There is no indication yet whether they can be as good as Johnson.

However, losing Roquan Smith would destroy the middle of the Bears defense, plain and simple. They would have no way to replace him in the draft. Third-round linebackers are not close to Smith's caliber. 

There is no one on the roster now who could replace Danny Trevathan, let alone Smith, and Trevathan seemed to be fading last year as his career winds down.

It is true the Bears stayed close to the Saints in a playoff game without Johnson and Smith playing, and with Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback. 

Logically, Watson would have given them a shot to win a playoff game even without Smith or Johnson.

While the players included could make a difference both to future Bears success or to the Texans, the key aspect of any deal for the Bears is the fact the Jets and the Dolphins can offer guaranteed picks in the first three this year. And the two second-round picks would be very high, virtually like first-round picks.

In this case, the only way the Bears could compete would be to sweeten the pot further and go to a third first-round pick.

In McClain's tweet, he said, "Start with the Jets." He didn't say "Start with the Bears."

It only makes common sense the Jets would be the team, and then possibly Miami.

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