Bears Survival Without Robert Quinn

Analysis: It's possible for the Bears defense to get by without Robert Quinn if he is traded, and Matt Eberflus has dealt with a similar difficult situation successfully in the past.

The rumors trickle forth about Bears sacks record holder Robert Quinn "wanting out" of Chicago.

Whether this is the case or not, what's likely is Quinn wants to know his fate now and to get to whatever team he is going to play for in 2022. Who wouldn't? Last week Jason LaCanfora of CBS Sports created a stir by saying without sourcing that he hears Quinn "wants out of Chicago."

It's easy to see how a 32-year-old pass rusher would relish a chance to play for a team with a playoff shot, like Khalil Mack got with his trade to the Chargers. After all, Quinn has played for only two teams qualifying for postseason in his nine seasons—the .500 Bears team in 2020 that lost at New Orleans and Sean McVay's first Rams playoff team in 2017 that lost to Altanta 26-13.

Playing in the new Bears defense does offer Quinn more opportunities for sacks than the last defensive scheme because he would no longer have the pass coverage concerns he had in the 3-4 at outside linebacker. 

Quinn didn't exactly adjust well to playing the 3-4, with two sacks for his first Bears season while playing from the stand-up position. He made it well known to media upon arriving at Halas Hall how he didn't cherish the thought of moving to the left side of the line. This rarely happened and no doubt it limited how defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano wanted to play his scheme. Quinn obviously carried the defensive line last year with Mack injured.

The likelihood of Quinn being dealt cannot be discounted because of the great cap relief it provides. It's money the Bears could use either toward another offensive lineman, wide receiver or keeping Roquan Smith and David Montgomery from becoming free agents. It would be almost $13 million of cap space relief if it happens June 2 or later according to Overthecap.com.

That figure is just for this year. He is scheduled in 2023 for a cap hit of $18.2 million. They lose his salary for next year and would have almost limitless funds. 

The big paycheck Quinn gets now is a real roadblock at this time of the year because most teams have depleted their available cap space. 

The only three teams who even have enough space currently to absorb Quinn's hit of $17.1 million for 2022 are the Cleveland Browns, Miami Dolphins and Carolina Panthers, according to Spotrac.com. It would require creative financing by some team to acquire Quinn in a trade now, like what happened when the Bears traded for Nick Foles.

A Deal Makes Sense

The Bears really do want Quinn in this defense for 2022 because it helps make the possibility of more takeaways likely with more pass rush pressure, and this is the entire focus for the defensive changes made by coach Matt Eberflus.

Eberflus said he expects Quinn at June's mandatory minicamp and defensive line coach Travis Smith says he has been in contact with Quinn despite his absence.

When a team has a pass rusher like Quinn and one who seems to be on the rise like third-year end Trevis Gipson, it's going to cause the ball to come out too soon or to ill-advised places. In the zone coverge they want to rely on, the Bears' revamped secondary would have their eyes on the passer's error and could reverse their recent trend of fewer takeaways.

However, if an offer they get for Quinn proves real and too great to pass up, the Bears would be left with an edge rush that includes Gipson, Al-Quadin Muhammad, rookie Dominique Robinson and perhaps Charles Snowden or someone they can sign off the scrap heap after roster cuts or June 1 cuts. Maybe they would even throw Jeremiah Attaochu into the mix, a lifetime 3-4 edge linebacker who would need to learn to play with his hand in the dirt.

Gipson is no sure thing as a sack artist since his one season of nice production came with Quinn taking up the focus of blocking schemes on the other side. Muhammad hasn't even practiced yet with the Bears and had only one season with more than three sacks annd that was last year for the Colts.

Eberflus Faced This Situation Already

It would be a bleak picture, but Eberflus and most of his defensive coaching staff faced this type of situation or even worse in their first Colts season and still converted a 3-4 into a 4-3 while finishing top 10 in takeaways, interceptions, fumbles recovered, points allowed and rushing defense.

The Colts had no pass rush to speak of when Eberflus took over as defensive coordinator. They were 30th in sacks the previous year under Pagano with 25 and were led by Jabaal Sheard with 5 1/2 sacks. No one else had more than three.

The only move for a better rush they made in 2018 was signing Denico Autry, the former Raiders defensive end. They shifted him mostly to defensive tackle and he came away with nine sacks.

Their other bigger sack total came from rookie linebacker Darius Leonard, who wasn't a pass rusher per se but had seven sacks. The Colts didn't turn into a blitzing team. They finished 29th in percentage of plays using a blitz, according to Sportradar, at 17.5%. It was the second-lowest blitz percentage Eberflus' four Colts defenses had. Defensive coordinator Alan Williams and Eberflus will not dial up blitzes much in Chicago now, either.

They were able to use Leonard more that year as pass rusher effectively when he did blitz, and he also got sacks in a spy situation by relying on his great quickness to reach scrambling passers before they maded it to the line of scrimmage. Smith could do the same as weakside linebacker for the Bears.

Leonard has never had as many sacks as he had that year because he wasn't intended to be a pass rusher and didn't need to be after that season, as DeForest Buckner came on board and other pass rushers were later added.

That Colts defense played strong pass defense with a lineup of defensive backs not entirely different than the one Pagano used the previous season, and with only a few additions.

The Plan in Case of Trade?

So, what all this says is Eberflus and Williams have a proven plan for how to create enough pass rush pressure needed to force mistakes and the key to everything is playing good pass defense.

What did the Bears do in the draft?

The first two picks earned them plenty of criticism for not helping Justin Fields, but there were no consensus guard/tackle candidates for them to select then and they say they took the two highest players they had on their board at the time in cornerback Kyler Gordon and safety Jaquan Brisker. Not surprisingly, both of these players are already turning heads at Halas Hall by creating turnovers in OTAs at a higher rate than holdover players.

This all says Eberflus knows the key is turning it around with pass coverage. It goes a long way with a little bit of heat.

Trading Khalil Mack showed they felt they didn't really need the extra sacks, as long as they could maintain some type of heat to force throws and then let their secondary do the job. They used the pick acquired for trading Mack to get Brisker, a player Pro Football Focus swooned over prior to the draft.

The key is getting pressure from someone else, then, and the Bears didn't have Autry walk through their door. They intended for this player to be Larry Ogunjobi, a big-play type who could have done it. 

Instead, they've got Justin Jones, a solid performer as a defensive lineman with the Chargers in their 3-4 but not an outstanding pass rusher with only 4 1/2 sacks for four seasons.

When Autry came over to the Colts, he had never made more than five sacks with the Raiders in a year and had just 10 1/2 total with the Raiders despite being at a better pass rush spot playing end much of the time.

In Jones, the Bears could see the player who converts like Autry did to playing inside for a 4-3 and puts up better rush or pressure totals. Jones was in a 3-4 in Los Angeles. Being able to attack upfield more in this 4-3 could allow him more sacks.

Jones' rush, combined with what pressure they could get by occasionally blitzing Smith and their outside rush from Gipson, Muhammad and Robinson might be enough to force the errant throws needed to help their secondary.

It's a plan they've proven can work.

The thing is, it would all work so much better with heat as well as sacks provided on the outside by Quinn for this year. 

Then they would have time next year to draft or sign someone else when the cash is plentiful and there is a first-round draft pick available.

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