How Justin Fields Beats the Clock

The clock is running on Justin Fields this year as he tries to get his fifth-year option picked up in 2024, and here's how he needs to improve to do it.

Justin Fields has the confidence of GM Ryan Poles for now.

Poles left little doubt about this by sticking behind his third-year passer and bringing in another weapon in DJ Moore.

The Bears GM has expressed that confidence every time he has been asked since the end of the regular season. He re-affirmed this during last week's owners meetings.

I think having (Fields) in the building and seeing the progress he made in this first year, getting familiar with our system, there's special and athletic traits," Poles told reporters at the owners meetings. "We've seen in college his ability to use his arm, too.

"I believe when all that comes together, we can have something special."

Thinking is cheap at this point. It costs more next year. Next May they'll need to make a decision on picking up Fields' fifth-year option, the amount of which is based on Fields' performances in his first three years.

No doubt the Bears expect a great deal from him this year after improving his receiver corps and starting to improve his pass blocking. Others already do.

NFL media's Adam Rank, a self-proclaimed Bears fan, labeled Fields the best quarterback in the NFC. Kyle Brandt asked the open-ended question on NFL Network: "The player who will be an absolute maniac in 2023 is ___?" And his answer was Fields.

"The Jalen Hurts similarity is very, very, very close if you allow yourself to believe in the magic of Justin Fields, which I do. That's my guy," Brandt said.

So the natural question for the Bears is what would Fields need to do this year, minimum, to get the point where they pick up the fifth year. Obviously they'll keep this to themselves.

Looking at some of the 12 first-round quarterbacks who went without being tendered since the 2011 CBA set up the fifth-year option system can help. So can looking at QBs who did get tendered.

One thing certain by studying these is it's often a case-by-case basis. Each team is looking at different specifics in numbers as well as improvement in technique and ability to simply win games.

If stats have any importance, the greatest impact is from the third year. Quarterbacks ascending in the third year can make up greatly for overall poor production.

A bottom line to picking up the fifth-year option is, in most cases, it's fairly clear whether it needs to get done. 

In five cases, first-round QBs did not even reach the end of the third year before being cut or dealt.

In fact, the Ryan Pace-era Bears look like the most choosy team of all for rejecting Trubisky when his overall stats after three years were superior to other QBs who had options rejected. In some cases, it was superior to those who had their options picked up.

Are the Bears still as selective about this under Poles? Or would they cut Fields a little slack considering his running ability and popularity if his passing stats remain on the downside?

It also has to be remembered that if Fields isn't the great success anticipated, the Bears can always make him play a fourth year without picking up the option to prove himself the way they did with Mitchell Trubisky, and the way the Giants did with Daniel Jones. It worked for Jones but not Trubisky.

It's always a risky move to alienate a player and leads to even bigger contract extensions. See the Jones four-year, $160 million contract extension for an example.

1. Passer Efficiency

Fields needs to get the passer rating up. He has only a career rating of 79.2. Jones had only an 84.1 after two seasons and 84.3 after his third year when the Giants decided against extending him. Of course, he got the extension later after a 92.5 rating in his fourth year, a figure aided greatly by reducing his interception percentage to 1.1 thanks largely to help from new coach Brian Daboll.

• Jared Goff had struggled initially in his career, but a 101.1 rating in Year 3 boosted his rating to 94.7 and the Rams went to the Super Bowl that year. Of course, he had his contract option picked up and then an extension.

• Carson Wentz, now seemingly an NFL pariah, had a 92.5 passer rating after three seasons and it was a 102.2 rating that third year which went a long way toward his third option.

• Baker Mayfield raised his passer rating to 89.1 in his third year by posting a third-season of 95.9, then later the Browns dispatched him.

Fields will need to get his passer rating up around 90 or higher from 85.2 in 2022.  

Trubisky took an 85.8 rating into his third year, then washed out at 83.0 and the Bears never picked up his option. 

Sam Darnold was one of the few exceptions. He had a poor 78.6 rating after three years, struggled mightily to a 72.7 in Year 3, yet the Jets somehow picked up his option before they dumped him.

2. Touchdowns

It figures into the QB rating but as it stands Fields has not been good at this with only 24 in two years. Actually, touchdown-to-interception ratio is more important, so he needs to cut down the picks as well. But he started this process last year when he had just five of those over his last eight games.

Quarterbacks have thrown a lot of interceptions and still had their options picked up. Jamies Winston had 44 interceptions after his third year but his 69 TD passes certainly helped the Buccaneers decide to pick up the option. 

Marcus Mariota had 34 interceptions in three years and his 58 TD passes were enough so the Titans picked up his option. He was another exception to the rule for the group, as he had an awful third season with 13 TDs, 15 interceptions and a 79.3 rating but still had his option picked up.

Fields' ratio is 24 to 21. His TD percentage jumped from 2.6% to 5.3% in his second year, even with a group of receivers best labeled questionable. He had Darnell Mooney for only 11 full games, Chase Claypool for only five. So it's encouraging now that he's been provided with a better brand of receivers.

3. Completion Percentage

This should almost automatically improve over his poor career mark of 59.7%. It already started last year with a climb of 1.5%, but needs to get up to around 62.5 or 63% or higher.

Fields' great strength is the intermediate pass, from 10-19 yards. He led the league in completion percentage for this range according to Pro Football Focus. Getting him DJ Moore helped immensely because Moore is second in the league over the last four years at catches from this range.

If Fields ups the shorter pass completions and the intermediate range completions take care of themselves with his new target, then the completion percentage could skyrocket.

Very few of the QBs who had low completion percentages had their options picked up, but Jamies Winston was a classic case. He had only a 60.8% for three years but boosted it greatly by improving in his third year to 63.8% and made up for some of his earlier problems.

Look to Josh Allen for a comparison with Fields in this category. He had only completed 56.3% after two seasons. It partially explains why his 78.2 passer rating after two years was worse than Fields' rating.

The Bills got Allen Stefon Diggs as a target in his third season much the way the Bears have brought in Moore. Allen's completion percentage soared to 69.2% in his third year, his TD-to-interception ratio was 37 to 10 and his rating hit a scintillating 107.2.

4. Better Run-to-Pass Ratio

Fields made 67 scrambles among his 160 runs, according to NFLGSIS.com. The number of scrambles needs to come down, if not his total runs, as well. And his passing attempts need to climb. The number of times he tucks the ball and runs it must drop because he's been given better receivers and the passing game will go further toward beating opponents than will Fields running for his life.

Also, it's just easier to pick up huge chunks of real estate faster with passes.

When Allen made his big climb in his third year, he cut down his scrambles from 44 to 29 while his passing yardage and percentages soared. 

Fields might see his rushing totals go down but his passing must go up.

5. Passing Time

Fields was clocked at 3.12 seconds to throw it on average by NFL Next Gen Stats. It was slower than in his rookie year, when he was at 2.91 seconds.

Coach Matt Eberflus constantly talks about the need to get the ball out quickly.

It's not the most critical number but important nonetheless. Jalen Hurts went from 3.11 and 3.12 his first two years as he had two different offenses like Fields did. Given the chance to stay in the same offense a second season during Year 3, Hurts had the ball away in 2.76 seconds and improved from near the slowest in the league to 18th quickest as the Eagles' offense soared.

Fields should be faster to throw in his second year within Luke Getsy's offense.

6. Health

Fields has missed six games in two seasons due to injuries or COVID-19. Staying as healthy as possible makes it easier to make a decision, although this can be overlooked depending on the health situation or absences. After all, Green Bay is reportedly picking up Jordan Love's option and has barely seen him play in three years.

QB Options Rejected

Year Drafted, QB, Team

2011 Christian Ponder, VIkings 

2011 Blaine Gabbert, Jaguars

2011 Jake Locker, Titans

2013  EJ Manuel, Bills

2014 Teddy Bridgewater, Vikings  

2017 Mitchell Trubisky, Bears

2019 Daniel Jones, Giants

*The following quarterbacks did not reach the end of the third year with their original team to have the option rejected:

Brandon Weeden, Browns, 2012; Johnny Manziel, Browns, 2014;  Dwayne Haskins, Washington, 2019; Josh Rosen, Cardinals, 2018; Paxton Lynch, Broncos, 2016 

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