Justin Fields: Arrived or on the Right Track?

Comparisons to other top QBs in the league right now show Justin Fields with comparable numbers after 19 starts but the real test is what's ahead.

The four-game surge put on by Justin Fields seems to have signified a start to his ascension.

It doesn't necessarily mean his ability to become a dominant quarterback is inevitable and to ensure this he'll still need help.

Quarterbacks develop at different rates but generally by his 19th start Fields' progress should have become apparent.

In fact, compared to the two quarterbacks from the teams who most often are mentioned as Super Bowl favorites, Fields is right where he needs to be.

After 19 starts, Fields is very comparable to Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Fields and Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts.

Those two are mobile passers so the style similarities make for good comparisons. Fields and Hurts have had to suffer through two different coaching staffs and offenses during the starts to their careers.

After 19 starts, Hurts has the best overall statistics of the three. Fields is just now starting to make strides and his touchdown pass total is starting to rise. In fact, Sunday's three TDs brought his TD pass total above his interception total for the first time.

QB Stats After 19 Starts

Quarterback	Att./Comp.	Yards	TDs/INTs	Rating	YDs/Att.	Rushing	TD runs
Justin Fields	269 of 457	3,192	17/16	78.0	7.0	163-1,022	6
Josh Allen	315 of 556	3,676	19/17	75.5	6.6	144-848	14
Jalen Hurts	342 of 580	4,205	22/13	84.7	7.3	202-1138	13
Mitchell Trubisky	351 of 570	4,007	22/13	86.1	7.03	78-544	4

Hurts had an 84.7 passer rating after 19 starts, the best of the three. He also had a slightly better yards per pass and 134 more rushing yards than Fields but on 39 more carries. Fields' 6.27 yards a carry is better than the other two.

The difference, of course, is Fields' team hasn't been good. He came in with a decaying team with little idea of how to develop a quarterback. Both Hurts and Allen benefited from strong overall teams.

The Bears have to look at these numbers for Fields and the potential for bringing in talent next year with so much cap space and with draft picks, and picture Fields in a similar situation.

Regardless, the numbers do indicate Fields is on the right track and only needs to develop more as a passer going forward into his 20th start and beyond.

Following Up on Start

Then again, there are many cases of quarterbacks starting well and progressing, only to crash and burn.

The Bears had one of those.

Mitchell Trubisky had a better touchdown-to-interception start to his career than Fields at 22-13, about the same yards per attempt at 7.03 and more passing yards (4,007).

The 19th start found Trubisky beating the Jets 24-10 right after piling up 48, 28 and 31 points in three games. That's even better than the point production Fields has had in the last three games.

However, when Trubisky played better defenses he always struggled. The Rams picked him off three times in a Bears win, then the 2019 season started and the Bears offense flat-lined, like Trubisky.

The determining factor in a quarterback plateauing is one real weakness being seized upon by defenses.

With Trubisky, it was inability to get the ball downfield. When he hit 7.03 yards per attempt, that key statistic started declining because defenses had realized how ineffective he was at downfield passing.

This was one area where the Bears didn't need to worry about Fields, at least earlier in the year. He had a very robust 7.6 yards per pass attempt before the Thursday night game against Washington.

It dipped to 7.5 after that game, then 7.2 after the New England game and 7.15 after the Cowboys game.

Part of this is just getting more pass attempts. The offense has expanded beyond those early games when they were throwing 15 passes.

No one is worried about his deep throwing.

"I've always said this—his deep ball passing has always been good," coach Matt Eberflus said. "He's always thrown those very well.

"The intermediate passing is getting better, his pocket presence is getting better."

If all of those are true, it shouldn't cause Fields' yards per attempt to drop.

Fields Needs Even More Receivers

What does cause this is lack of open downfield targets and inability to protect Fields. He's been sacked 33 times, only three less than all of last year. The lack of downfield targets was the reason they went after Chase Claypool and they went to this twice Sunday, but the two plays should have resulted in a pair of pass interference penalties—instead it was just one.

In the future, Fields and Claypool could definitely be expected to hook up more downfield.

Claypool and Darnell Mooney are not a receiver corps, though. You need more, and the third should be Velus Jones Jr. He hasn't stepped up as a rookie. In fact, their third-round rookie was inactive Sunday and Eberflus on Monday couldn't commit to getting him back into the mix.

They do have N'Keal Harry but in three games he has had only five targets and four catches for 44 yards.

The one wild card is Byron Pringle, who still could come off injured reserve and make a statement about staying with the Bears in the future. However, only three targets on the year so far due to injuries isn't helping his cause.

The Bears still must come up with a real downfield speed threat to complement Fields and his big arm and the two better receivers.

It's a place for Ryan Poles to look in the draft or in what is shaping up as a limited free agency market for receivers.

Fields' development is not exclusive of the talent around him. If they're going to realize his full potential, it's going to take better pairs of hands going after his throws than they've shown to date.

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