Learning New System Can't Be a Handicap

Year 2 can mean everything to Justin Fields' career even with new coaches and a new offensive system because teams don't wait forever on passers to develop.

The mixed messages about Justin Fields' future based on his rookie season can be maddening.

On one hand were the spectacular highlight style plays and on the other was great inconsistency.

A few posts by Pro Football Focus this month typify Fields' career start. One put Fields on the PFF All-Jameis Winston team, a 3-year-old PFF tradition for naming the biggest Jekyll and Hyde rookies.

The other was a statistic from PFF revealing he had the best rookie deep big-time throw rate since this highly subjective and shaky metric began in 2009. He had 34.8% completions on such throws while Sam Bradford's rookie year was second at 34.1%, Baker Mayfield third (32.9%) and Russell Wilson fourth (31.9%). The average is only 21.8%. But again, it's an entirely subjective calculation.

Whatever all of that represented, it occurred in the past. 

What really needs to be known about Fields in Year 2 is he is taking on the difficult assignment of being a second-year quarterback playing in a new offense for the second straight NFL season. It might be a difficult assignment, but it isn't as impossible as some make it out to be.

"Two Paths You Can by but in the Long Run ..."

There are essentially two routes he can go in Year 2 with a new offense. He'll get better than last year or get worse, and if he gets better in Year 2, he has a shot at becoming a success based on recent history. If he doesn't improve, there are very few examples of those who manage to reverse the process at a later date. Giants quarterback Daniel Jones will try it this season. 

It's assumed by many to be a huge handicap to take on a new offense in Year 2. Of course it doesn't help. What would have helped had been if Fields proved wildly successful as a rookie because there would be less concern about his development.

Year 2 for Fields needs to be better for his own good because teams look differently at a  passer who fails in Year 2 even if it is a new offense.  Year 3 decides fifth-year options and so in the NFL now teams can't afford to be patient.

In the last five seasons, there have been 13 rookie quarterbacks who started and then had to play in new offenses during Year 2. Most of them actually overcame this perceived obstacle—some to a huge extent and others marginally. Those QBs who improved were Jared Goff, Lamar Jackson, Sam Darnold, Gardner Minshew, Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa, Jalen Hurts and the Bears' very own Mitchell Trubisky.

It obviously matters who the coaching staffs were taking over in the second year. Goff had the benefit of getting Sean McVay as head coach in Year 2 and jumped in passer rating from 63.6 as a rookie to 100.5. 

Justin Fields' Rookie Year

Passing Yards	Completion Pct.	Yards/Attempt	TDs	IINTs	Passer Rating	Team Wins
1,870	58.9%	6.9	7	10	73.2	2

The smart team designed the offense around their quarterback, like Greg Roman did for Lamar Jackson when it resulted in a jump of 29.9 passer rating points (113.3), a Pro Bowl berth and league MVP.

For this reason it's encouraging to hear Bears offensive coordinator Luke Getsy talking about designing the offense around Fields.

Improved Year 2 QBs in New Systems

(Last 5 seasons average)

Passing Yards	Completion Pct.	Yards/Attempt	TDs	INTs	Passer Rating	Team Wins
3,281	64.7%	7.3	24.1	10	95.3	8.4

That's the positive side of Year 2 with a new offense and even those who improve didn't always go on to be smashing successes, as Bears fans know with Trubisky. Darnold is another classic case. Strangely, Dowell Loggains and Adam Gase had their hands involved with both at some point. But the second-year improvement bought both more time to show they could be possible successes. It just didn't happen.

Without Year 2 Improvement ...

The negative side is those who did not improve in the new offense for Year 2 were soon on the discard pile or sitting on the edge of the proverbial NFL QB dumpster. Those five were Dwayne Haskins, Drew Lock, Paxton Lynch, Daniel Jones and Baker Mayfield.

Mayfield's presence in this group is the exception to the rule. He was the unfortunate passer who had to play in a different, failing system each of his first two years, not just as a rookie. Then the Browns finally got a third regime in three years who actually had a clue, Mayfield enjoyed dramatic improvement and got out of the discard pile.

On average, second-year starters in a new offensive system improved from 85.59 to 89.47 in passer rating. They improved from 13.1 touchdown passes to 19.2.

One stat that must offer encouragement to Fields is the fumble rate dropped from 7.6 to 6.9. After Fields fumbled 12 times as a rookie, this is one stat which he really needs to improve. He needs to do what Justin Herbert did in Year 2. Herbert went from eight fumbles as a rookie to just one in Year 2. It's better to be like Herbert than Tagovailoa, who went from one rookie fumble to nine in his second year but still succeeded in putting up better overall numbers.

Of more relevance to Fields are the numbers of those who actually improved overall, not the full group of 13.

The eight quarterbacks who improved in Year 2 under a new regime averaged 64.7% completions, an improvement of 3.9%. They averaged 7.3 yards per pass attempt, up from 6.8 as rookies. They had 24.1 touchdown passes to 13 as rookies. They threw more interceptions (10 to 7.1) but passed it about 119 more times per quarterback so that's to be expected. Their passer rating jumped by more than 10 points, from 85.1 on average to 95.3.

Mitchell Trubisky in Year 2, New System

Passing Yards	Completion Pct.	Yards/Attempt	TDs	INTs	Passer Rating	Wins Led
3,223	66.6%	7.4	24	12	95.4	11

The irony of ironies is the average improvement by quarterbacks who got better in their second years despite being in new systems is extremely similar to that of Mitchell Trubisky. So Fields needs to be for Year 2 where Trubisky was, or better.

Consider those target numbers for Fields.

The alternative can be getting lumped in with Haskins, Lynch and Lock. That's no way for an NFL career to blossom.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven.