Bear Digest

It's All a House of Cards

The plan Ryan Pace put in place has exists or pivot points built in but as they start to vanish the whole thing could tumble down on the Bears.

Gene Chamberlain

It's All a House of Cards
It's All a House of Cards /

The grand plan of Bears GM Ryan Pace became more apparent as it unfolded.

The first few steps made it confusing but there really is collaboration occurring as it proceeds.

Pace plans to turn the Bears into a far more explosive team, one capable of more than nine points in a playoff game. Matt Nagy and Pace saw how little a threat their offense posed for the Saints in their 21-9 loss, and how the game was there to be won except for a lack of healthy or level-headed receivers.

The quarterback didn't exactly scare anyone, either.

At the same time, they had two key defensive players either in their 30s or on the verge and the were going to eat up cap space. So they decided the best approach to getting the offense better would be to weaken the defense by making it younger, so Kyle Fuller and Akiem Hicks became expendable.

This falls under the heading of "be careful what you wish for."

They're doing this all with one possibility in mind, but like Pace said, they need to be able to pivot. 

That possibility is Russell Wilson still being available for trade.

Even after Wilson's tweet on Friday congratulating teammate Chris Carson on his new contract and adding "Let's Go 32," this could still happen.  

Unless the Seahawks executed their right of contract and restructured his salary, Wilson is still a possibility.

The Bears now have a quarterback they can offer back in return in Andy Dalton, and it's a passer Seattle was said to like. They would be getting draft picks in a trade and could try to acquire a younger QB, too.

The Bears still have 34-year-old tight end Jimmy Graham on the roster when they could have taken a cap savings to help avoid getting rid of Akiem Hicks and Kyle Fuller. And Graham is Wilson's friend. Why would they keep him if they don't think there still might be a chance, even if it's one in a million?

None of this is to suggest it's happening. Letting it get out what they actually offered doesn't help them—three first-round picks, a third and two players, possibly Hicks and Fuller. Now, the Seahawks or anyone else could wait until this situation ferments and merely pick up Fuller and Hicks, unless the Bears do come up with a different trading partner who might even help by providing an extra draft pick.

What Pace has done is put himself in position to make such a move if it actually becomes possible, and if rebuffed he is positioned to take the plan another way. That direction would still include a more explosive offense. 

It explains the interest in Kenny Golladay even after tagging Allen Robinson.  

Pace has left himself options and the direction they go in the draft will depend on all of this, as well.

There are problems or dangers with the plan and here is why it's all a gamble:

1. The Offensive Line

They really have done nothing to upgrade the line beyond getting Germain Ifedi signed and James Daniels healthy. Tackle must be addressed. They tried with Trent Williams and failed, and the only real remaining options might not be viable or upgrades over Charles Leno Jr. That would be injured Eric Fisher or Carolina's Russell Okung. Ifedi, himself, is no sure bet. He showed he could play tackle last year against some weak defenses. So they'd need to find a tackle(s) in the draft. Without this, they might not be able to protect Wilson, let alone a much slower Dalton. They could sign Kenny Golladay and this whole plan tanks if they can't protect the quarterback or block the run.

2. The Defensive Loss

Offenses picked on Jaylon Johnson last year out of fear of Kyle Fuller but he's gone. Johnson hasn't made an interception yet. Desmond Trufant hasn't done much beyond make an injured reserve list since 2017, so it's difficult to say he's an answer.  Bringing in a rookie at the position means more development time. This is potentially going to be rough for the defense.

3. Golladay?

The report from Brad Biggs of the Tribune said they offered $11 million to Golladay. The Giants paid $18 a year and gave a four-year deal. There's a huge drop in talent level to players like DeDe Westbrook, Sammy Watkins, Josh Reynolds and Chris Conley. They could sign T.Y. Hilton but at 31 do they need to be paying a lot for him when it will mean losing a top defensive player off the roster for cap purposes? Free agency probably wouldn't even provide the answer at receiver. They'd have to come up with a drafted receiver who can greatly upgrade them and the draft can provide this but they have to make a wise selection and development takes time.

4. The Money

Because of how tight the cap space is for this plan to work, one missing piece seems capable of bringing down the whole plan like a house of cards. The cash shortage can prevent alternative options. Picking up the mess will be difficult.

Expect

It's at least refreshing to see there is purpose to to plan. It just won't work.

A Wilson acquisition doesn't happen because Pete Carroll won't let it.  They'll draft a receive who will need time to find a role. Without Fuller and with Hicks 32 this year, the Bears will need to get younger and—at least initially—weaker on defense. Andy Dalton will be the quarterback and the offensive line will be no more able to protect him than with immobile Nick Foles last year. 

It will be apparent by midseason whether there needs to be front-office and coaching change as the plan either never materializes properly or totally unravels.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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