Beating NFL Spreads Week 3: Pouters Are Easy Plays

The earning opportunity is always at its peak when pouting is going on with NFL teams for various reasons

Pouting is a way of life in the NFL and always offers up wagering opportunities.

Teams at season's end often go into collective funks and it's easy to spot when they'll occur. Usually it coincides with being eliminated from the playoff chase, and in particular if they have to play a road game after it occurs. 

Then, after a few weeks of pouting and generally feeling sorry for themselves, they grow accustomed to the fact they are also-rans. When they are at home and it's the holiday season they will bounce back to knock off a contender or two.

However, teams elmininated are often good bets to initially fold up until they reach the realization the next year will offer new opportunity and besides that they are playing for their jobs. 

For the bettor there's no such thing as being too aggressive when it comes to kicking someone while they're down and you should pounce on weakness.

Earlier in the season these mind games can also occur and have to be spotted.

A prime example is among this week's picks and can turn gamblers into earners. It doesn't involve defeat because it's too early for losers to build this identity, but rather injuries.

Saquon Barkley went out for the year in last week's loss to the Bears and the Giants already looked like a teetering team in the opener. Losing their star running back is definitely a reason for a team-wide pout.

They signed Devonta Freeman. He has never been the talent Barkley is. They'll quickly discover Freeman needs time to fit into their offense and probably won't. Dion Lewis is no option as an every down back. 

In the meantime, last week the injury had just occurred and its impact couldn't be felt even in the game's second half.

The Giants have had a week to wallow in self pity and now they're facing a 49ers team reeling from its own injuries but also one which had to bounce back after an embarrassing Week 1 upset loss to Arizona and did. The 49ers have seen just a few weeks ago what happens if they take someone lightly and they also have some good numbers on their side.

The Niners normally don't need to find limping prey to be all over a road victory. They have won eight of their last 10 road games.

And then there is the simple fact the Giants just plain and simple are not very good.

This looks like your lock for the week.

The Trends 

Here are my 10 favorite trends for the week ranked. Remember, the trend is your friend, but even friends can be a pain in the rear.

• 1. The total has been over in 14 of Tampa Bay's last 16 games and in seven of its last eight road games.

• 2. The Rams are 9-2 against the spread in their last 11 on the road.

• 3. The Patriots are 16-3 in their last 19 home games and have beaten the Raiders five straight.

• 4. The 49ers have won straight up in eight of their last 10 road games and 4-1 ATS in their last five on the road.

• 5. The total has been over in eight of the last nine Packers-Saints games.

• 6. Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last five at home and 5-1 straight up in the last six against Tampa Bay.

• 7. Bears and Falcons games have gone under the total nine of the last 10 times.

• 8. Cincinnati has covered its last five games in Philadelphia.

• 9. The over has prevailed in four of the Lions' last five games.

• 10. The Steelers have covered four of their last five against the Texans

Last Week

12-4 straight up, 6-10 against the spread

For the Season

23-9 straight up, 16-16 against the spread

Bears at Falcons

The Line: Falcons by 3 (over/under 47)

Gene Chamberlain's Pick: Falcons 23, Bears 19

Elsewhere This Week

Dolphins +3 at Jaguars (48).........................Jaguars 26, Dolphins 21

Rams +2 at Bills (47).....................................Bills 17, Rams 16

Washington +7 at Browns (45).....................Browns 26, Washington 17

Titans -2 1/2 at Vikings (49).........................Titans 28, Vikings 20

Raiders +6 at Patriots (47 1/2).....................Patriots 27, Raiders 16

49ers -4 at Giants (41 1/2)............................49ers 24, Giants 13

Bengals +5 1/2 at Eagles (46)......................Eagles 24, Bengals 20

Texans +4 at Steelers (45)............................Steelers 31, Texans 20

Jets +10 1/2 at Colts (44 1/2).......................Colts 20, Jets 17

Panthers +6 1/2 at Chargers (43 1/2)......... Chargers 24, Panthers 20

Bucs -6 at Broncos (43)................................Bucs 30, Broncos 27 

Lions +5 1/2 at Cardinals (55 1/2)................Cardinals 33, Lions 31

Cowboys +4 1/2 at Seahawks (56)...............Seahawks 27, Cowboys 20

Packers +3 at Saints (52 1/2)........................Saints 34, Packers 30

Chiefs +3 1/2 at Ravens (54 1/2)..................Ravens 40, Chiefs 37

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