Painful Bears Season Has Its Rewards
The Bears haven't had a season finale with this much at stake since 2020.
Then, it was about making the playoffs and they lost to Green Bay. They got in anyway at 8-8, thanks to the Arizona Cardinals' incompetence or injuries.
This time against the Minnesota Vikings, the only thing at stake is the future of the franchise.
This is an exaggeration, of course, but it's possible a win could mean the difference between taking a great college prospect or taking an even better college prospect.
Or it could mean getting a trade offer with numerous draft picks in the NFL Draft, which is slated for April 27-29 in Kansas City.
The game itself Sunday is entirely insignificant except to the Vikings, who need a win and 49ers loss to the Arizona Cardinals in order to secure second seed in the NFC for the playoffs. Otherwise, they'll be the third seed.
Considering the seventh seed plays the second seed and that seventh seed could be Green Bay, and the Vikings just lost 41-17 to the Packers, the Vikings might be better off tanking in this one themselves.
Here's what this game can mean for the Bears.
1. The Bears Draft First.
The Bears draft first if they lose Sunday and Houston Texans win at Indianapolis against the Colts. The Colts and Texans tied in the season-opener.
They could draft defensive end Will Anderson Jr. of Alabama or Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter.
Drafting first could also mean the Bears trade down because there most certainly will be teams without quarterbacks looking to offer them something so they can get Bryce Young of Alabama.
Then again, there is the sect of Bears fans who think Justin Fields will not improve as a passer even though he just did improve this season statistically, and they could want the Bears to trade Fields and draft Young. Or they could want the Bears to trade Fields and draft Ohio State's C.J. Stroud.
2. The Bears Draft Second
The Bears will pick second if they lose to the Vikings and the Texans lose to the Colts. If they pick second, they could wind up with Anderson or Carter. They could also trade down.
Certainly, if the Texans kept Lovie Smith as coach that's a possibility. He always valued defense over offense more in Chicago. So the Bears wouldn't get one of the two defensive linemen but could get a bunch of draft picks from a team hoping to select Young.
3. The Bears Draft Third
The Bears can only draft third or fourth if they beat the Vikings. They can't draft later than fourth. The Bears draft third with a win Sunday and a loss by the Cardinals to the 49ers or a loss by the Broncos at home against the Chargers.
The Seahawks own the Broncos' pick from the Russell Wilson trade and would then get to pick ahead of the Bears by virtue of a tiebreaker—the Bears played a tougher schedule than Denver. The same is true if the Bears win and the Cardinals lose to tie the Bears with a 4-13 record. The Cardinals played an easier schedule so they own the tiebreaker and draft before the Bears.
Drafting third could probably still net the Bears the defensive line help they badly need, but it's less likely to earn them more lucrative offers with a cache of draft picks.
4. The Bears Draft Fourth
The Bears beat the Vikings and both the Broncos and the Cardinals lose on Sunday. Then the Bears lose the tiebreaker with both teams.
The Cardinals and Seahawks both would draft ahead of the Bears if they tie with four wins apiece. They still could wind up with one of the best defensive linemen drafting fourth because a team ahead of them or trading ahead of them could covet Stroud, leaving either Carter or Anderson still available.
Or they could take Stroud if he's still undrafted and trade Fields. Or they could draft Stroud and keep them both, which wouldn't make much sense.
5. What's the Deal?
Wherever the Bears finish in the top four for the draft, there could be trade offers.
What could they get? Former Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson is credited with devising a scale of value for draft picks that has since been revised to refelect modern drafts.
Drafttek.com publishes this every year and it's been proven very reliable. The first pick is worth 3,000 points, the second worth 2,600, the third worth 2,200 and the fourth worth 1,800. There is a big drop in value after the fourth pick as the difference is 1,700 for fifth, 1,600 for sixth, 1,500 for seventh and 1,400 for eighth. Then, the next big drop is at ninth, which is worth 1,350.
For instance, if the Bears had the first pick and Indianapolis was fifth but coveted a quarterback, the Bears could get the Colts' first-round pick, second-round pick (540 points) and a second-rounder next year and one other later pick. Early third-rounders are worth less than 300 points.
Here is the scale for all rounds and picks. Picks traded from the 2024 or 2025 drafts are the tricky parts. They're said to be worth the last pick of the round because there's no way to know what place they'll be in order at this point. However, that's just a rule of thumb.
6. Who They Play
Whether the Bears lose or not, their schedule is affected by what happens Sunday. Their opponents are set except for two games. One game involves the Cardinals. They would host Arizona if the Cardinals lose to the 49ers. If the Cardinals win and the Rams lose to Seattle, they would host the Rams. If both win, the Bears host the Rams. The other game in question is the Steelers or Browns in a road game. They'll play the Browns if the Browns lose to the Steelers. If the Steelers lose, they would travel to Pittsburgh.
Other than that, here are their opponents.
7. The Record
The Bears have never lost 14 games in a season.
Losing to Minnesota sets the record for most losses in franchise history, although it doesn't make them the worst team in franchise history from a mathematical standpoint. The 1969 team won once in a 14-game schedule and their winning percentage was .071.
That team lost a coin flip with Pittsburgh for the first pick in the draft when this was a tiebreaker. They had actually beaten the Steelers that season but it didn't figure into the tiebreaker system.
The Steelers drafted Terry Bradshaw. Then, in a move that makes the draft day trade up to select Mitchell Trubisky look like a stroke of brilliance, the Bears didn't even get a draft pick in exchange for that No. 2 pick. Instead, they traded the second pick of the draft for Green Bay's Elijah Pitts, LeRoy Caffey and Bob Hyland. Caffey and Hyland both played one season in Chicago and Pitts never played a down for the Bears -- he was cut before the 1970 season, wound up spending that season with two different teams and eventually signed back with the Packers for 1971.
With a loss, the Bears would have a .176 winning percentage, second worst in team history.
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