Patrick Mahomes – Caleb Williams: Revisiting the comps

Alan Goldsher | Feb 9, 2025

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes faces the Super Bowl media / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

NFL pundits love comparing incoming rookies to established veterans. Always have, always will.

Some of the predicted top-ten picks of the 2025 NFL Draft, for instance, have been side-by-sided to Joe Burrow (Shedeur Sanders), Von Miller (Abdul Carter), and Josh Jacobs (Ashton Jeanty).

Just like one calendar year ago, when a certain Heisman-winning quarterback was often compared to a certain G.O.A.T.-to-be.

Break It Down, Y'all!

Throughout Caleb Williams' tenure at USC, NFL scribes were enamored with the gun-slinging field general, so much so that they often mentioned him in the same breath as the Kansas City Chiefs' two-time MVP, three-time Super Bowl winner, and future Hall of Famer Patrick Mahomes.

• PFF wrote, “Mahomes is the best in the world at manipulating pockets to give himself space to either throw or take off and run, and Williams shows that ability on a near-down-to-down basis."

• Jordan Dajani and Dave Richard from CBS Sports raved. “Caleb Williams is as close to Patrick Mahomes as we've seen since 2017. His footwork looks cleaner in his drop back, he has a plus arm, throws with great accuracy to all three levels, and consistently wins with his legs—whether he's in the pocket, flushed from the pocket or on designed runs.”

• The Athletic’s Dane Brugler wins the metaphor award, saying “[S]tylistically [Williams] is like a really impressive karaoke-style version of Patrick Mahomes, he is truly unique as a playmaker.”

Your knee-jerk reaction to the back-in-the-day scouting reports is probably something along the lines of, “Man, the pundits blew that.”

But did they?

Year Two Mahomes vs. Year One Williams: The Numbers Speak

Mahomes was able to, in effect, red-shirt his rookie season and study the Chiefs' veteran incumbent signal caller Alex Smith, whereas Williams, in his rookie season with the Chicago Bears, was thrown into the deep end and named starter before training camp. So for any stat comparison, you’d have to put freshman Caleb next to sophomore Patrick:

Passing Yardage Per Game

• 2018 Mahomes: 318.6

• 2024 Williams: 208.3

Total Passing Yardage

• 2018 Mahomes: 5,097

• 2024 Williams: 3,541

Rushing Yardage Per Game

• 2018 Mahomes: 17.0

• 2024 Williams: 28.8

Total Rushing Yardage

• 2018 Mahomes: 272

• 2024 Williams: 489

Passing Touchdowns

• 2018 Mahomes: 50

• 2024 Williams: 20

Rushing Touchdowns

• 2018 Mahomes: 2

• 2024 Williams: 0

Completion Percentage

• 2018 Mahomes: 66.0%

• 2024 Williams: 62.5%

QBR

• 2018 Mahomes: 113.8

• 2024 Williams: 87.8

Sacks

• 2018 Mahomes: 26

• 2024 Williams: 68

Interceptions

• 2018 Mahomes: 12

• 2024 Williams: 6

Flash takeaway: Mahomes wins big in the arm department, while Williams takes the edge in rushing and accuracy.

So the Pundits Blew It…or Did They?

Little surprise that the passing numbers across the board favor Mahomes, as he was playing behind an offensive line anchored by an All-Pro tackle in Mitchell Schwartz, while Williams’ O-line was a rotating cast of underachievers that PFF cited as the ninth-worst unit in the league.

Another hurdle that impeded Williams’ passing season: He was trapped in schemes drawn up by Shane Waldron (fired) and Thomas Brown (not retained), while Mahomes was blessed with a playbook courtesy of Andy Reid, a mustachioed offensive genius who currently has more regular season wins than all but three head coaches in NFL history (301).

So statistically-speaking, Caleb Williams never had a chance.

What Happens Next?

Mahomes took some statistical steps backwards in his second full-time season behind center, throwing for 24 fewer touchdowns and over 1,000 less yards. Yes, he started two less games in 2019, but that doesn’t come close to fully accounting for the numerical regression.

As for Caleb, what with an innovative offensive-minded head coach in Ben Johnson and an improved O-line (fingers crossed), Williams will likely be in a far better position to succeed in his year-two as a starter. And if he does indeed take a huge statistical leap—hey, with the right offseason approach, anything’s possible—maybe the pundits will feel better about their comps.