Where It Can Really Go Wrong for Bears

The weak spots in the rebuild of GM Ryan Poles are not those which lead to most of his criticism.

The point where everyone forms a dog pile on Bears GM Ryan Poles is the lack of wide receivers for quarterback Justin Fields.

It shouldn't be, but that doesn't mean Poles has taken the safe and narrow path for 2022 in his rebuild. 

Fields has receivers, one very good one who has more catches than all but two receivers from the 2020 NFL draft, and if they can't find someone else to at least help out occasionally then they truly are lost.

Of those brought in, there are numerous receiver candidates who have displayed enough credentials to indicate they can contribute in some form. There are nine veterans besides rookies Velus Jones and Kevin Shaa. Those nine account for 81 starts and 27 years of exerperience. Adequate can be found for this year.

Lacking multiple talented receivers could lead to Fields searching for a target and then scrambling a lot. Hopefully they can train him to run out of bounds.

In short, the lack of receiver help beyond Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet merely can lead to a less explosive attack. 

There are more serious situations at work here where Poles has taken a total gamble and the entire thing could blow up in the Bears' faces.

3. Slot Cornerback

One of the three most important positions in coach Matt Eberflus' defensive scheme has been turned over to Tavon Young, an injury prone player who missed all of 2017, all of 2019, all but two games in 2020 and had a passer rating against of 111.8 in 2018 when he allowed five touchdown passes. He has had two good seasons—2016 as a rookie and last year. Behind him is Duke Shelley, who struggled at the position the last two years, and Thomas Graham Jr. 

The Graham situation is best labeled an experiment because he has just now begun taking snaps at OTAs playing there. The one possible salvation, if Young's shaky health past resurfaces, is moving rookie Kyler Gordon there. Then they'll suffer on the outside at cornerback. Play in today's NFL without an adequate nickel cornerback and you're going to be on the field for one long drive after another as opposing quarterbacks repeatedly pick apart your secondary underneath and in the middle of the field on third down.

2. Defensive Tackle

They've got Justin Jones as alternative three technique after failing to sign Larry Ogunjobi due to a failed physical. This looks like a colossal gamble at what coaches say is the most important position in this defensive scheme because: 

• Jones gets injured too often; 

• He doesn't finish enough on the pass rush as 4 1/2 career sacks in four seasons indicate; 

• The plan for a replacement or relief help behind him is entirely undependable. 

Since becoming a starter in 2019, Jones had four missed starts in 2019 with a shoulder injury, three missed games and four starts in 2020 due to a shoulder injury and was out six games on injured reserve in 2021 due to a calf injury.

When he played, the results were sporadic. In 2020, according to Pro Football Focus, Jones topped out with an excellent 70.6 playing grade. In the other three years he never went above 59.1 overall and has never managed a pass rush grade better than 61.1. His 4 1/2 total career sacks speak to this. His 10 pressures in 2021 indicate disruptive potential, since they came in only 11 games. However, he had only 13 for the previous three years combined.

This was their biggest free agency expenditure, at $12 million for two years.

Perhaps worse—because Jones does appear to at least be good enough to man the spot adequately—is the backup option. That's singular. 

Mario Edwards Jr. was already waived by the Raiders and Saints and not signed back by the Giants when his contract expired. He has been suspended two Bears games for PED violation and committed five penalties for either roughing the passer, unnecessary roughness or unsportsmanlike conduct. That means 16% of the dirty penalties for the entire team over two years came from one backup player on their defensive line. The "S" in Eberflus' HITS philosophy stands for "smart." Edwards' play runs contrary to the desired trend. Beyond Edwards, the candidates for this spot are third-year practice squad player LaCale London, Auzoyah Alufoai and undrafted rookie Micah Dew-Treadway, who had 1 1/2 career sacks with the Minnesota Gophers. Alufohai and London are two-gap players still figuring out how to fit a one-gap system.

If Jones gets hurt, as history suggests can happen, the Bears are in huge trouble straight up the gut of their defense.

1. Right Guard

Sam Mustipher hasn't played the postion, Dakota Dozier has been the starter one time in his eight seasons but the following year was moved back to the practice squad (2021), and the rest of the candidates are rookies drafted on Day 3 who moved from tackle in college. Expecting success from this group is like trying to roll snake-eyes on your first try. It's a complete long shot.

Mustipher performed at a low level as center, according to PFF grades. So, something different at an entirely new position seems unlikely. The offensive line's new aproach emphasizes quickness and most linemen they have signed or drafted ran the 40 in 5.2 or faster. Dozier's time was 5.42.

Last year only two NFL offensive linemen drafted in the fifth round or later started more than three games as rookies, so it's highly unlikely they get anything from rookies Zachary Thomas and Ja'Tyre Carter in their first years.

It's just guard and what could happen?

Using an inadequate right guard can disrupt any chance for a running game in an offense that will be based on the run and play-action passing. It will keep Justin Fields under constant pressure due to lack of pass blocking and the lack of a possible counter with the run game. And remember, they're teaming an inadequate guard with totally inexperienced tackles. 

The entire offense can cave in. 

That's all.

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