Friendly Futures Lines on Bears Season

Gamblers looking for locks on NFL futures need only look at the two key Bears and the skepticism league-wide about the team.

USA Today

All sports bettors want to hear the four-letter word: L-O-C-K.

Futures odds on over/under totals for some Bears players could fit into this category as the general tone about the team with oddsmakers remains very negative.

Some futures lines on players seem very inviting from the Bears standpoint but one is not the odds to reach 4,000 passing yards. Justin Fields according to Fanduel.com is 14-1. Only Desmond Ridder at 18-1 has less chance in the view of oddsmakers.

It's definitely not one to pursue considering the Bears have never even have a 4,000-yard passer and Fields hasn't even hit 2,500 yards for a season passing let alone 3,000. In fact, SI Sportsbook has Fields' over/under for passing yards at only 2,775.

Still, there are reasons to think Fields' passing can pay off for bettors.

The first way is touchdown passes. Fanduel had Fields on July 17 at an over/under of 17 1/2.

In a 2022 season when Fields didn't know the new offense, had only 10 starts under his belt, missed two games due to injuries and had Pro Football Focus' 32nd-ranked (worst) receiver group, he still managed to hit 17 touchdown passes.

Consider the Bears also ranked 30th in total plays run and Fields threw only 318 times, while being sacked a league-high 55 times, and then also weigh in what they've done to help the line and receivers this year and there appears no way Fields would have a problem soaring past last year's 17 TD passes.

The offensive idea for the Bears this year is not to duplicate last year's 43.8% passing plays. They're trying to get up to 50% or better for passes.

About the only way Fields would appear to have a chance to hit the under 171/2 for TD passes is if he regresses greatly and heads for an uncertain future or if he is injured.

Going hand-in-hand with the low Fields TD total are two totals for wide receiver DJ Moore.

One is his TD catch total and the other is his yardage total. They have his over/under TD catch total set at 4 1/2. Considering Moore has only been over 4 once, the number seems close to accurate. However, those totals in Carolina came when the Panthers had running back Christian McCaffrey taking away targets from all wide receivers. The Bears definitely don't need to worry about Moore losing targets to running backs because their group is almost void of receiving experience, backup Travis Homer being the lone exception.

Also, Moore managed seven TD catches last year with three different Carolina starting QBs.

The other Moore-related lock seems to be 800 yards receiving. He hasn't had a yardage total so low since his first season in 2018.

The only thing working against Moore on both counts is the presence of both Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool in the receiving corps taking away targets, or Fields scrambling too much.

If Fields is scrambling too much and has a much more QB-friendly receiver group, it would be more cause for the Bears to look elsewhere in the future for passer.

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