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Turning Justin Fields Loose as a Passer
Saying Bears offensive coordinator Luke Getsy seemed reluctant to pass last season would be a colossal understatement.
Justin Fields threw only 318 times in his 15 starts, but his scrambling artificially held down the pass attempts. The intent was more passes than 318.
The last time an NFL quarterback started at least 15 games and passed only 318 times?
You'd have to go back past Cam Newton, past RG III, past even Michael Vick. There was talk the Bears were setting the game back to the 1970s last year by passing so few times, but that wasn't true.
You can keep going past the 1990s, 80s and to the start of the 16-game schedule in 1978 and never find it because Fields is the first QB to ever start at least 15 regular-season games and throw it only 318 times.
It probably surprises no one to know the closest thing to this was another Bears quarterback playing for coach Dave Wannstedt. His quarterback is the coach at Michigan now, Jim Harbaugh, and he threw it only 325 times for 15 starts in 1993.
Fields scrambled 67 times last year according to NFLGS.com, which cut down his pass attempts. Using Fields for 93 planned runs also reduced his pass attempts, and it's easy to trace this all back to a lack of confidence in the passing game itself.
Where it all led was to a quarterback who couldn't produce wins in reality but in fantasy football he became legend as a top seven QB because he could run and pass for fantasy points.
The more confidence Getsy has in Fields' passing, the more they'll lean on the pass. The more confidence Field has in his ability to pass and in his targets, the more throws he'll make. All of this will result in fewer runs but it's more likely to result in more wins.
"I think the running part of it, most of that is a natural thing once you're in the moment," Getsy said. "But decision-making, we're working on every single day. Timing and rhythm we're working on every single day. And lastly, the situation that you're in.
"Putting that all together, you're just increasing the football IQ so you know better when to take those opportunities and when not to, because there are plenty of times on film that he shouldn't do it, and even though it worked out for us, in the long run, there's a better decision. There's a better way."
Justin Fields as a Better Passer
The better way is throwing it.
Of all Fields' statistics so far, the least impressive is five victories, 20 defeats. Last year he had 1,143 yards rushing and easily could have had 1,300 if he played through the full season without missing two games. He also saw what 1,143 yards rushing by a quarterback can accomplish—the rights to the first pick in the draft.
What Fields knows is the win count total goes up quicker the better and more accurately he passes.
"I think he's made a conscious effort to make himself smoother, make himself more fluid, letting his feet lead him and then everything else mirrors off of that. To me, that’s where we've seen some growth," quarterbacks coach Andrew Janocko said. "It's what he's put a real focus on."
Fields' entire off-season has been built on achieving passing consistency, both the actual process and the result of the process. A 60.4% completion rate like he had in 2022 will not cut it whether he wants wins, his fifth-year contract option picked up or an extension.
Here's what happens when the running quarterback becomes a more consistent, accurate passer:
- In 2018 Lamar Jackson had a 58.2 completion percentage, improved it to 66.1 and it improved his TD rate from 3.5% to a phenomenal 9%, improving his passer rating from 84.5 to an obscene 113.3. He was MVP.
- Jalen Hurts two years ago was at 61.3% completions and boosted it in 2022 to 66.5% as his TD rate went from 3.7% to 4.8%. He finished second in MVP voting.
- In 2020 Josh Allen went from 58.8% completions to 69.2% completions, from 4.3% to 6.5% TDs and from 85.3 to 107.2 in passer rating to finish second in MVP voting.
The consistency and accuracy achieved through better footwork can be the difference in moving Fields' passer rating up from last year's 85.2.
Already he started ascending last year. For his first 16 NFL appearances, Fields had 57.3% completions, nine TD catches, 14 interceptions and a passer rating of 70.3. For the last 11 he has 63% completions, 15 TDs to seven interceptions and a 92.2 passer rating.
Improved efficiency is going to give Getsy more cause to call passes on third downs instead of running as they often did.
Last year the Bears offense passed on first-and-10 156 times, the 30th highest total in the league. Getsy will be invited to be a little more daring with improved accuracy through better footwork by Fields, and also with a better target available in DJ Moore.
What Fantasy Owners Can Expect
For fantasy football owners, it's likely to look drastically different. Fields was a top-10 fantasy quarterback even when he wasn't a top-10 passer because he ran so much.
It could mean decreased value in fantasy football, but people focused on reality couldn't care less. Still, it doesn't necessarily mean his style gets altered too much. When Hurts' passing numbers jumped in all areas his third season, he also had 26 more rushing attempts. He had five more rushes than Fields last year (165).
According to the fantasy website Rotoballer, Fields averaged a league-high 33.4 fantasy points a game from Week 7 through Week 10. The breakthrough in fantasy ball came then.
Better passing leads to more first downs, more plays and more chances to both run and pass. While Fields' passing numbers take off, his running doesn't need to decrease in huge amounts. His fantasy ranking can stay high, although not necessarily in the range of where he was for four weeks last year.
The type of improvement in passing the Bears are looking for is not a process that occurs overnight or over three or four weeks. It's constant repetition in practice and games that does it.
"Just keep increasing the footwork, his platform, the timing, his release," is how coach Matt Eberflus described it.
If it all comes out the way they anticipate, the numbers will go up for Fields in passing attempts, completion percentage, yards and touchdowns.
All of this could lead to a big contract extension.
"I'm not worried about contracts, I'm worried about wins," Fields said.
They'll go hand in hand.
Justin Fields at a Glance
Vitals: 6-foot-3, 228 pounds, third season.
Career: 351 of 588 passing for 4,112 yards, 59.7% completions with 24 TDs, 21 INTs, 79.7 passer rating; 232 rushing attempts, 1,563 yards, 10 TDs, 6.7 yards per carry.
2022: 192 completions in 318 passes, 2,242 yards, 17 TDs, 11 INTs, 85.2 passer rating; 160 rushes for 1,143 yards and 8 TDs, 7.1 yards per carry.
The Number: 1. Only once in his last 11 starts has Fields gone without a TD pass. In his first 14 starts he did it seven times.
2023 FanNation Projection: 317 completions in 488 passes, 64.9% accuracy, 3,471 yards, 7.1 yards per attempt, 26 TDs, 13 INTs, 93.4 passer rating; 135 rushes, 907 yards rushing, 6.9 yards per rush, 8 TDs.
Bottom Line: Fields has more people to use in the offense and will take it upon his own shoulders less, letting his playmakers make the plays. While he also learns more about taking the shorter pass completions available, he'll still get his shots downfield because of better downfield threats available and more time to throw. Fewer risks, more completions and efficiency will result in better overall numbers, but it might take as long as Week 4 before they start seeing a real difference because of the schedule.
Michael Fabiano's SI Fantasy Ranking: No. 7 among all quarterbacks.
Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven
