Projected Justin Fields Stats Could Surprise

The trends say Justin Fields plays long before Matt Nagy plans for his debut and fantasy owners would find his production susceptible to problems most rookie QBs experience.

Unlike projections for other starting players, Justin Fields carries a double challenge.

First, a potential starting point for Fields' career must be determined. Then it's possible to project a fantasy number.

Over the last decade, 12 of the 32 quarterbacks selected in the first round started on opening day according to Pro Football Reference. However, only six of the 23 first-round quarterbacks taken since 2014 have started on opening day.

So it's a common thing to try to keep the first-round quarterback protected and learning in the beginning like Matt Nagy is trying to do with Fields.

Patrick Mahomes, Jordan Love and Jake Locker had to wait until the final week of their rookie season or later to get onto a field. Love hasn't been on it yet and no doubt Green Bay fans would love if this continued. 

Among the other 29 first-round quarterbacks taken in the last decade who did play earlier in their rookie year, the average wait to start is only 3.4 weeks. 

The problem with determining the starting point for Fields is Mahomes was one of the three who didn't start until at least the final regular-season game of their rookie season, Bears coach Matt Nagy was the one who was his coach at Kansas City and he is using the KC-Mahomes plan.

"With that said, we're excited about Andy Dalton, too," Nagy said. "And we know that if we stick to this plan that we have, that everything is going to be just fine."

Plans usually go astray

With a tip of the cap to Robert Burns, the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry. 

Nagy's plan with Fields is based on a totally different situation than the Bears currently face, although Nagy doesn't necessarily see it this way. Expecting the plan to go the same way really is fantasy football. 

The Bears are viewing veteran Andy Dalton starting the same way the Chiefs viewed Alex Smith starting. They are viewing Nagy's situation like he is Andy Reid.

So, the very foundation of their plan is faulty. Dalton isn't Alex Smith and Nagy isn't in the same circumstances as Reid was in 2017. 

Smith was in the midst of leading Kansas City in five playoff games over five seasons. Dalton hasn't seen the field for a playoff game since 2014 and hasn't led his team to a playoff berth since 2015. 

Meanwhile, Dalton's play definitely has trended downward. The last four years he's averaged 6.7 yards an attempt with an 84.8 passer rating but in his first six was at 7.3 per attempt with an 89.1 rating. 

Smith had matched his career best of 8.0 yards an attempt in his final season in Kansas City before Mahomes took over, and led the league with a 104.7 passer rating.

The chance of Dalton succeeding appear remote based on his trends. Dalton's teams have had losing records in five consecutive seasons and he has started more than half the games in each of those seasons.

Most trends on Dalton point downward and it's much easier to make a decision to pull a quarterback in such a situation. 

The first thing to threaten a quarterback plan is always losing. 

Reid was never in a difficult situation with Kansas City then, but the implied comments by Bears chairman and CEO Ted Phillips during the postseason press conference put Nagy in a challenging situation this season to say the least. Board chairman George McCaskey said they need to see progress and Phillips said they need a playoff win.

Neither said outright that this was a situation where a playoff win was needed or else there will be regime change, but how could a losing season be viewed as progress? 

So, Nagy will be under more pressure to win. When Dalton isn't getting it done and hasn't for several years, anticipate Fields coming on by at least Week 8. 

Justin Fields on 30+ yard throws in his career at OSU
🚀 95.7 passing grade
🚀 18 TDs
🚀 0 INTs pic.twitter.com/OzZXYiMXAn

— PFF College (@PFF_College) June 25, 2021

Fields was the most accurate middle-range passer (11-20 yards) in college football last year according to Pro Football Focus, and throughout his career was extremely accurate with deeper passes. Taking this into account, along with his running speed and a rookie's natural inclination to panic and run out of the pocket, it's not difficult to project better numbers for Fields in terms of yards per attempt. 

It's also more likely the Bears would try to protect him by running more and with play-action passes. 

What other rookies have done

Looking at other recent rookies, the Bears would be happy if Fields could even approach 7.0 yards per attempt and a passer rating in the mid-80s. 

Those are not easy numbers for a rookie to achieve. Kyler Murray's 6.9 yards an attempt and 87.4 passer rating as a rookie were solid targets for someone who was the draft's 11th pick like Fields. Joe Burrow (6.7) didn't hit 7.0 yards an attempt. 

Justin Herbert was a rookie god compared to most others, with 7.3 yards per attempt and a passer rating of 98.3.

Based on a 10-start season and the team the Bears have, Fields should be a great deal south of Herbert's statistics. In fact, it wouldn't be surprising if many of his numbers fail to hit Mitchell Trubisky's from last year, but then again it was Trubisky's fourth year.

Fields' overall improvement shown throughout should have everyone looking forward to what he does in his first full season as starter in 2022.

Justin Fields at a glance

Final Ohio State season: 8 games, 158 completions in 225 attempts for 2,100 yards, 22 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, 383 rushing yards, 5 TDs.

The number: 3. Fields threw only three interceptions in his 2019 season for Ohio State before doubling his total for 2020 in six fewer games.

2021 projection: 10 starts, 5-5 record, 63% completions, 2,328 yards, 16 TDs, 10 interceptions, 85.6 passer rating, 6.8 yards per pass attempt, 331 rushing yards, 4 TDs.

He literally threw past his first read more than any other QB in this years draft. Highest completion % too.

Tell me who are the best QBs to ever come out of Cal, Texas Tech, Tennessee, Michigan, Pitt, & Wisconsin. Now tell me who the best were before them.

Lazy narrative. https://t.co/ajvsOy2XZc pic.twitter.com/xnhPlUqXhu

— Trubiscuits N Gravy (@_beardownloyal) May 22, 2021

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven