Looking at Bears' Longshot Chances

The Bears playoff situation has become a math problem more than a football one and here's how they're eliminated this week or make the unlikely playoff run.

The Bears remain in the playoff chase.

They're one percenters, as in they have a 1% chance to make it.

They're like cousin Eddie and family lingering on into the new year as a Christmas house guests. 

They truly are the thing that wouldn't just go away.

The confusing Bears playoff situation has been simplified a bit via the NFL. There are several ways the Bears get shown the door on Sunday.

Know first that the Bears are vying for one of the last two wild cards because Dallas already has 10 wins and has the top wild card.

Here are the most likely ways the Bears are eliminated Sunday, ranked in order of likelihood:

TIEBREAKING PROCEDURES FOR THE NFL IN 2023

1. Falcons Beat or Tie the Bears

The first one is that the Bears lose or tie the Falcons. It's simple. If they lose or tie either remaining game, they are out because they won't get to eight wins. With a loss, they would have 10 losses and no one is getting in as a wild card this year with 10 losses. It's mathematically impossible. The Seahawks and Rams are also in the hunt for wild cards but both of them already have eight wins and the Bears couldn't get to eight wins if they lose or tie on Sunday.

2. Bears Win but Rams and Seahawks Win or Tie

The Rams are playing the Giants and Seahawks play Pittsburgh. The Rams will be heavy favorites. The Seahawks are underdogs but Pittsburgh is shaky. If both win  they have nine wins so the Bears are out because they can't get to nine wins or an 8-8-1 record, only to 8-9.

3. Bears Win but Rams Win or Tie and Packers Win

Even if the Bears win both of their remaining games, they get eliminated by the combination of a Rams win or tie and Packers win Sunday. They couldn't equal the Rams' winning percentage if L.A. beats or ties the Giants. They couldn't beat the Packers in a tiebreaker if the Packers beat the Vikings. However, if the Packers tied the Vikings, the Bears would still be alive.

4. Bears Win but Rams Win or Tie and Vikings Win

Even if the Bears win both their remaining games, they get eliminated by the combination of a Rams win and Vikings win Sunday. They couldn't equal the Rams' winning percentagge if L.A. beats or ties the Giants. They couldn't beat the Vikings in a tiebreaker if the Vikings beat the Packers. However, if the Vikings tied the Packers, the Bears would still be alive if they beat the Falcons and the Seahawks and Rams both didn't win.

5. Bears Win but Seahawks Win or Tie and Packers Win

Even if the Bears win both of their remaining games, they get eliminated by the combination of a Seahawks win over the Steelers or tie with Pittsburgh, and a Packers win over the Vikings. The Seahawks could finish no worse than 8-8-1 with a win or tie and the Bears can't top or tie this mark. A Packers win over Minnesota Sunday means the Bears can't beat Green Bay via tiebreaker.

6. Bears Win but Seahawks Win or Tie and Vikings Win

Even if the Bears win both of their remaining games, they get eliminated by the combination of a Seahawks win over the Steelers or tie with Pittsburgh, and a Vikings win over the Packers. The Seahawks could finish no worse than 8-8-1 with a win or tie and the Bears can't top or tie that mark. A Packers win over Minnesota this Sunday means the Bears can't beat Green Bay via tiebreaker. The only way the Bears can win the tiebreaker over either the Packers or Vikings is if those teams tie on Sunday.

THIS SUMS IT UP IN TABLULAR FORM

All of that said, the Bears can make the playoffs in two weeks and all of these things must happen:

Bears win the last two games and ...

Seattle and the Rams lose both of their remaining games while New Orleans loses its two games. The Bears would finish tied with the Rams and Seahawks at 8-9 and win the tiebreaker against both based on better conference record. The Bears would be 7-5 in the NFC and the Rams and Seahawks 6-6.

In that case, either the Packers would take the sixth seed. Green Bay would win it at 8-9 in a four-way tie with the Bears, Rams and Seahawks at 8-9. The Packers would elminate the Bears in the four-way tiebreaker procedure for sixth seed, and the Rams would elminate the Seahawks based on two wins over them. The Packers own a tiebreaker over the Rams after beating them. However, this wouldn't eliminate the Bears because the tiebreaker is re-applied for the seventh seed and the Rams again eliminate the Seahawks but lose to the Bears based on NFC record.  

The Bears also would take seventh seed this way if the Vikings won both their remaining games and the Rams, Seahawks and Saints lost their remaining games..

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