Arguments for and Against a QB Switch by the Bears

Mitchell Trubisky is being considered for starting against the Green Bay Packers instead of Nick Foles depending on their health status, and there are arguments both ways about who would be better for the Bears.

There are advantages to putting Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback again for the Bears offense.

There are advantages to keeping him on the sideline and sticking with Nick Foles

Ultimately there were differences in how they played under each quarterback.

The biggest difference, though, was Trubisky faced three easier defenses to beat and failed against one of them—the Falcons, a team Foles rallied the Bears to beat. 

On the other hand, Foles played against some of the league's best defenses but when he went up against lesser defenses he didn't necessarily excel.

The difference in the two involved mobility, types of throws and how they also used Trubisky more under center while running the ball better.

Another difference was the way they targeted Allen Robinson. Trubisky sent 29% of his throws to Robinson while Foles threw to him just 22% of the time. Foles did have better overall success than Trubisky when he threw to Robinson.

Another difference: Trubisky doesn't need to wear the plays on his wrist. Maybe he needs to wear the other team's defensive alignments on his wrist, but not his own plays.

Here are arguments for each starting against the Green Bay Packers.

Arguments for Switching to Mitchell Trubisky

• They put Foles in to win and he didn't do it. They're 2-5 with him starting. No games were lost with Trubisky at quarterback, although he did present them with a 16-point fourth-quarter deficit against Atlanta and a 17-point fourth-quarter deficit against Detroit.

• Scrambling yardage will increase with Trubisky, and this can't hurt with the offensive line in constant flux and pass protection shaky. It could extend a few drives now and then.

• The running game should work better in theory. With Trubisky taking more snaps under center and providing an ability to bootleg, to scramble or to run the zone-read, the Bears averaged 4.3 yards per rush from players other than the quarterback. Starting with the very down Foles took over, they've averaged 2.8 yards per rush. It's important to eliminate Trubisky's own rushing when determining how the Bears ran in his starts because his numbers were skewed by one 45-yard scramble when the Falcons defense fell asleep.  

• Pass plays using moving pockets or bootleg action should, in theory, work better than with Foles. Earlier this season it was Foles himself who marveled at Trubisky's ability to throw accurately on the run and admitted he has trouble doing this. Foles has proven his inability here when they've tried to slide him out of the pocket to throw. He's just not that good at it, too immobile and a glute injury isn't going to help in this regard. However, Trubisky's ability to complete throws on the move was a bit exaggerated by Foles. Some of Trubisky's worst passing decisions and efforts always come on the run.

• It's possible Trubisky has learned something about reading defenses or decision making or by watching Foles and will now apply it. This depends on how hard Trubisky focused on learning while languishing on the bench. After Week 4 of his rookie season, Trubisky never had the advantage of watching and learning the way some successful quarterbacks did as rookies. Aaron Rodgers is a good example. Then again, numerous quarterbacks have come in, started immediately, learned from their own mistakes and improved. The trend these days is to play immediately or very soon into the rookie year.

• If Nagy becomes play caller again at some point, the quarterback-coach play-calling dynamic is well established with Trubisky. It seems Nagy and Foles have been a bit at odds or not on the same page even though they both were in Kansas City and Philadelphia together in the past. It's the first time Nagy called plays for Foles and it seems to show. All this is irrelevant if they keep Bill Lazor as play caller because he really has no past calling plays with either Trubisky and only one game with Foles.

• Trubisky will average more yards per catch. No one would have thought this prior to the season, and neither is doing this well. But Trubisky did average 6.5 yards a pass attempt while Foles has been an abysmal 6.0.

• The offense could be better in the red zone with a running threat from Trubisky. They've struggled there on offense much of the year but have been worse under Foles, now ranking 30th in the league.
• At this point, they're desperate and need to try something different ... anything.

Arguments for Keeping Nick Foles

• He reads defenses better and has been through more big moments as a veteran, so he's more likely to author comebacks if provided with proper blocking.

• Although you wouldn't know it from the way he was carted off the field Monday night, Foles is probably in better shape. At least a glute/hip injury doesn't affect his passing motion. A glute injury is basically a pain in the butt. Trubisky had a right shoulder injury, so it's naturally going to take something off his throws and he also might be more susceptible to damage if hit after throwing.

• Foles might not be able to elude the rush as well as Trubisky but he has always had a better sense of when to throw away a pass and live for another play. Trubisky will hold it and then throw a risky pass into a crowd downfield.

• There's no guarantee they can even block for the run better now with all the offensive line changes, and the best argument for using Trubisky is how well they ran the ball with him under center in the first three games. So with all the line injuries making it almost impossible to get a viable running game together, they should just forget about it and throw the ball as often as possible. Foles is the best option for this.

• More passes will be completed. Trubisky was completing only 59.3% and Foles is completing 65%
• Foles has a better record against the Green Bay Packers. Trubisky is only 1-4 against the Packers as a starter while Foles has played them just twice and split two starts.
• Foles' specialty is the clutch win down the stretch. Every play will be critical down the stretch for the Bears if they want to get into the playoffs.

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