A 2-2 Bears Record Lies More than Stats Do

Some of the key statistics after four Bears games suggest a team in bigger trouble than their current record shows.

Former Bears defensive coordinator Greg Blache probably wouldn't like it.

It was Blache, the defensive coordinator under Dick Jauron, who had a real problem with statistics and numbers. But the numbers are clear on this year's Bears team as they have hit what would be the quarter mark, before they added more work for everyone with a 17th game.

Blache once said: "Numbers lie. Numbers are like your brother-in-law, they lie; they need to."

He became a little more definitive at one point.

"I'm not a stat guy," Blache said. "I'm not interested in them, because you can do anything you want with numbers, you can manipulate them, and work around with them. Look at all the financial (problems) we're having in Wall Street right now.

"That's all those guys lying and playing with numbers. And now all of us are suffering. So I don't believe in numbers, because any crook can play with numbers. ... It angers me. You know? That's the whole thing, people play with numbers."

Probably Bill Belichick put this concept a little more succinctly.

"You know how I feel about stats," Belichick said. "Stats are for losers. The final score is for winners."

Yet, the numbers on the Bears so far tell the tale as well as final scores and the 2-2 start. They also indicate where this thing could be headed.

The Good

The Bears take the ball away and they don't turn it over a lot, which lets them stay in games. Actually, what it says after four games is when they did turn it over they lost and when they didn't they won. A bigger sample size might suggest something more. So far they are plus-2 in turnover ratio.

The offense is able to run the ball when they don't give up on the run, and they might do this less now with Bill Lazor calling plays. However, it might be more difficult to run if David Montgomery is gone for any length of time since he's fifth in the NFL in rushing after being angry in the offseason over ratings that put him in the 20s among ranked NFL running backs.

The run blocking has been fairly effective as they've managed to come in ninth in rushing despite abandoning the run at times.

The defense rushes the passer well, which a league-high 15 sacks and the second-highest sack percentage suggest. With Robert Quinn at 4.5 sacks and Khalil Mack at 4.0, they're getting a return on two big pay checks now. They have 27 quarterback hits, which indicates punishment inflicted. 

However, they're getting quarterback knockdowns 7.2% of the time,  and that's 25th in the league. And they are 19th in hurries (9.0%), a stat which can be an indicator of consistent pressure. That's critical. They could improve, but the pass rush is still what's propping up a defense with flaws and carrying an offense which is dead weight.

As usual, the Bears are tough inside the red zone on defense with five touchdowns allowed in 14 tries, only 35.7% and fifth in the league. Even better, they allow any scoring only 57.1% of the time during red-zone incursions, second-best in the league behind Buffalo. Stopping the Lions inside the red zone repeatedly on Sunday no doubt made the difference here.

The Bad

While they're getting sacks, they also give them up. With 16 sacks allowed, only Tennessee has given up more.

If they're unable to run, then passing makes difficult if there's no time to throw. The more teams start ganging up to stop their run, the worse the pass protection could get because teams will start blitzing to stop both the run and pass. It will result in an offense that gains something like, 1.1 yards a play. Or wait, we've seen that already.

The red zone offense has been a great crusade of the coaching staff, and yet even with the running threat of Justin Fields added in 2 1/2 quarters of action they are only 25th in red zone scoring with six TDs in 11 tries (54.5%). They have five tight ends on the roster, including Jimmy Graham and his nine TD catches last year, and they have Allen Robinson, but they still can't consistently score TDs in the red zone.

While sacks have been great and pressure overall adequate, if the Bears defense doesn't get to the quarterback they are in big trouble. Their coverage has had too many blown assignments, like on the late touchdowns allowed to Cincinnati and Detroit, and on two TDs given up to the Rams.

It let quarterbacks establish a 103.8 quarterback rating against them, 22nd in the league. It's why they're giving up 8.6 yards per pass attempt, fifth worst in the league. They're 26th in percentage of passes given up for touchdowns (6.4%).

The Ugly

• The Bears are last in passing and even 2 1/2 quarters of Justin Fields haven't fixed it.

• They are last at converting third downs to first downs (28.9%).

• They are last in yards gained on first down (3.8), which is probably the main reason they're last at converting third downs. They're facing too many third-and-long situations.

• They are only next to last yards per pass attempt (6.0) and 30th in scoring and at passer rating (68.5), so time to celebrate. Woo Hoo.

Conclusion

A team in its fourth year of offense under a coach who is supposed to be an offensive and quarterback wizard can't afford so many areas on that side of the football where the numbers say they stink, especially after two years when they went through much of the same thing.

The switch to Lazor calling plays must breathe some type of life into the offense because if it doesn't, there is big trouble ahead considering their defense has some obvious flaws for opponents to pick at and the schedule  toughens.  Six of the next nine games against teams currently 3-1 or 4-0.

Numbers might lie like your brother-in-law but it's the ones speaking the truth that the Bears really need to worry about.

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