Bear Digest

The X-Factor Boosting Caleb Williams' Rapid Development

Analysis: One insider sees Caleb Williams as more likely than other QBs to break through immediately and the reason is something few other rookie QBs possess.

Gene Chamberlain

Caleb Williams won't be a solo act as a rookie and it's this fact that leads one insider to predict a big year despite the inexperience.
Caleb Williams won't be a solo act as a rookie and it's this fact that leads one insider to predict a big year despite the inexperience. / Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
In this story:

Opinion matters.

More precisely, informed opinion matters.

From this end Bears fans suffering quarterback angst with three weeks left until Caleb Williams and other rookies report for the start of training camp can rest at ease.

A trend had developed earlier in the offseason of analysts trumpeting how Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels would really be the rookie passer to watch instead of Williams. These type of backlash movements are common as they help fuel debate and interest.

As the analysis continues toward the start of training camps, more and more are coming around to the idea the best rookie quarterback will be the player taken first by the Bears.

CBS Sports' Douglas Clawson thinks both of the last two No. 1 overall QBs will be breakthrough candidates, Williams and Bryce Young.  If so, it should make for an interesting Oct. 6 game when their teams play each other at Soldier Field.

To be sure, Clawson doesn't diss on Daniels, but sees Williams as a quarterback more likely to breakthrough as a rookie.

The main reason should be obvious to all and it's the support he has.

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"He has the best supporting cast for a quarterback drafted first overall, ever," Clawson wrote.

Many have touched on this in the offseason and the conclusion usually is top two, but Clawson says No. 1 supporting cast.

"He's the first top-five rookie quarterback to inherit two receivers coming off 1,200-yard seasons (Keenan Allen, D.J. Moore), plus Chicago drafted Rome Odunze ninth overall after he led the nation in receiving yards last season," Clawson wrote. "The Bears also have weapons at running back (D'Andre Swift) and tight end (Cole Kmet, Gerald Everett), and an above-average offensive line. Chicago was top five in both pass block win rate and run block win rate last season."

This doesn't even include the defense. A rookie quarterback who comes to a team with a poor defense is going to be forced into making mistakes to mount comebacks when he's not yet advanced enough to consistently achieve them. The Bears defense appears poised for a top-10 finish. After all, they tied for most interceptions by making a surge after Montez Sweat came on board, and he had no more pass rush help last year than he has now. If they can find a pass rush counter to Sweat then a top-5 finish is possible and possibly something really special.

Clawson again reiterates he has confidence Daniels has the kind of talent to be an effective starter, but sees in Williams a passer tested far more severely at USC than Daniels was.

"Williams had some weapons at USC (wide receivers Tahj Washington and Brenden Rice were seventh-round picks)," Clawson wrote. "But nothing like Daniels, who had two teammates drafted in the first round (wide receiver Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr.)."

The assumption being, if Williams could do what he did in college in leading offenses with mid-level receiver talent and backed by no defense and little running game, then what will he be able to accomplish if everything is working to provide him with support.

"Williams college coach Lincoln Riley also has a track record for producing impact rookies, as Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield were former Heisman winners drafted first overall coached by Riley," Clawson wrote.

Williams' ability to immediately impress is a view being echoed by Chad Reuter with his NFL.com projected rookie team, featuring the Bears' pick as the team's quarterback.

Trey Wingo of The 33rd Team had called Williams the beneficiary of a perfect situation earlier this offseason.

It doesn't appear too perfect to ESPN as their team roster rankings have put the Bears only 17th overall. In this article, Seth Walder calls Williams the team's "X factor."

Actually, Williams is what he is as the first pick of the draft. The X-factor in this case is the entire surrounding cast he inherits. It's what could give a rookie quarterback that rare ability to take a team to the playoffs the same way C.J. Stroud did last year.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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