Three Big Matchup Edges for Bears Against Panthers
When the season started this week's matchup against the Carolina Panthers looked like a possible trap game for the Chicago Bears.
It was a game against a rebuilding opponent under a new coach with a new quarterback and many changes in the starting lineup.
The game was situated between big games against Tampa Bay and then Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints in successive weeks.
If it's thought of now as a game to take a week off by the Bears, then they're headed for a 4-2 record because Matt Ruhle has performed a transformation in only a matter of five games. The Panthers have won three straight and did it without their chief weapon, running back Christian McCaffrey.
They've depended on nothing more than solid fundamental football and have avoided beating themselves with stupid penalties and turnovers. There isn't an offensive area where the Panthers have struggled greatly, and part of this has to do with the contribution from former Bears running back Mike Davis in McCaffrey's absence.
There were many who predicted Matt Rhule would succeed as an NFL coach, but few could have forecasted how quickly this could happen.
Despite the success of the Panthers, there are opportunities for the Bears in several areas for mismatches to varying degree. Considering the improvement of their oppponent, taking advantage of those few mismatches could have important consequences in what now looks like a difficult game overall.
Bears TE Jimmy Graham vs. Panthers LB Tahir Whitehead
The Bears could get the same effect using any one of their tight ends over the middle. It could finally be a chance to get Cole Kmet involved at doing something besides committing penalties. Graham has been tough for opponents to handle in the red zone, as both Matt Nagy and Ryan Pace predicted before this season. His contributions haven't been as great elsewhere, but four touchdown catches is more than he had in either of his Packer seasons and is twice the total the Bears had from all of their tight ends combined last season. Nick Foles likes getting the ball to his tight ends with regularity and has really made good use of this in the red zone. Whitehead is the former outside linebacker for the Raiders and Lions who has been converted to middle linebacker, and is struggling to defend the pass in his 10th season. It's not uncommon for him to experience difficulties against the pass. He has a 110.3 passer rating against and is allowing 84.6% completions when targeted, this coming off a year when he allowed a 140.4 passer rating against and six TD catches for the Raiders. Whitehead hasn't been great stopping the run, either. The Panthers are only 27th defending the run. Overall, Pro Football Focus has given Whitehead a grade of 28.1 this year, which is miserable. He has been able to blitz the middle effectively, but his run-stopping grade is only 29.7. The Bears could have open ranges over the middle.
Bears DE Akiem Hicks vs. Panthers RG John Miller
Hicks is coming off his only game this season without a sack or tackle for loss. He did tip a pass and was active in the rush, and helped take some of the pressure off of Khalil Mack so Mack could get two sacks as well as constant pressure. Both of the Bears edge rushers are matched up against strong tackles in this game and the heat will need to come on Teddy Bridgewater from inside. Miller has allowed two sacks and committed three penalties and has been playing at a below-average level according to PFF. He has a 57.5 run-blocking grade by PFF and 59.8 overall. Neither of the Panthers guards has enjoyed strong seasons by PFF standards.
Bears WR Allen Robinson vs. Panthers CB Rasul Douglas
It's not that Douglas is iniexperienced or lacking skills, it's just that Robinson over the last three games has ascended to a different level in terms of finding ways to get the ball. Robinson has a high catch percentage of 69.2% in those three games with 27 receptions in 39 attempts and every day is getting to know his new quarterback a little better. Robinson has averaged 11.6 yards a reception in that stretch, 8.05 yards per target. The Panthers have had one of the league's better pass defenses and Douglas has been part of the reason why, but is a complete surprise in this regard. He was cut by the Eagles and Carolina picked him up. So far this season he has a solid 66.7% completion percentage allowed and strong 79.7 passer rating against. At 6-foot-2 he is more capable of matching up with Robinson than many shorter cornerbacks, but height hasn't necessarily meant other cornerbacks could match up with Robinson in the past.
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