Linebackers Fail the Two-Step Test
Two linebackers came available in the open market and a team without sufficient linebacker numbers could be expected to look at them.
The two linebackers are Bobby Wagner and Jordan Hicks and the team needing linebackers who should look at them is, of course, the Bears. And the outcome should be they need to look elsewhere.
There are two keys to every move the Bears make in free agency and one is not how many Pro Bowls or how many tackles you made in the past.
The keys, the test for free agents, are fit and cost.
Any player cut could expect to take a pay reduction and in the case of both these players the price should be bargain rate. In Wagner's case, the bargain rate would still probably be higher than with Hicks because of his reputation.
Some of the times Wagner won the popularity contest that is Pro Bowl voting were probably undeserved. Making All-Pro eight straight years is admirable, though probably an indication of lazy research by Associated Press voters.
Being Cost-Efficient
One man's bargain rate is not another's. The more affordable acquisition would be Hicks here.
The Bears are able to afford more players in free agency than what many would expect considering their amount of cash over the salary cap was estimated at $23.6 million as of Thursday by Overthecap.com. They are going to add to the amount available by cutting some players who do not fit their new system going forward. Expect Eddie Goldman's departure because he is not only a two-gap player and not a fit for their new one-gap system, but also because he hasn't had a good season since 2019. Danny Trevathan and a few other players do not seem like fits for the Bears going forward, either.
What they need to do with the money they will have is find one receiver who can, at the very least, be on par with Darnell Mooney, and also acquire offensive line, cornerback, defensive line and linebacker help.
As a player with a big reputation and bigger salary demands, Wagner doesn't fit after having a contract canceled that was bringing him an average of $18 million a year. Hicks might, since he averaged only $4.5 million on his canceled contract.
Then there is the actual fit as a player for both.
Wagner at one time would have been an ideal fit because he has been at his best in a 4-3 used by the Seahawks.
Also, the Bears have Roquan Smith available for their 4-3. Still approaching the prime of his career, Smith is best used as an attacking playmaker in a position like the 4-3 affords with the weakside linebacker position. Putting Smith in the middle where he is away from the ball most often and playing more as a pass coverage linebacker would not be a terrible misuse but also would give him less chance to display his ability for disruption than the weakside position provide.
Wagner, though, is going to be 32 years old this season and he isn't going to get faster. He isn't getting taller than 6 feet tall and players slow as they approach their mid 30s. He will be exploited more at the middle position in the passing game because of this.
Wagner did make a lot of tackles last year but someone had to make them because he was playing for one of the NFL's worst defenses. If he didn't stop the ball carriers, only the end zone would. Signing him to use as a situational linebacker, a tackling machine for run downhill so to speak, makes little sense. Why pay so much for such a player when they already have Trevathan, who could do this when healthy? Not that they need to keep Trevathan for this, either.
So Wagner would not fit in many ways.
Tale of the Three (Possible) Bears
Hicks here, again, is a better fit but not by much. Although younger, he's still going to be 30 this season and while still fast enough for pass coverage he just hasn't been a 4-3 middle linebacker.
The Cardinals have not played a base 4-3 since they went to the Super Bowl at the end of the 2008 season. Inside linebacker in a 3-4 is not the same as 4-3 middle linebacker, although the difference is not as great as at some other positions.
This is not to suggest Hicks couldn't do it, just that he hasn't been doing it and the Bears should be looking for more exact system fits from free agent linebackers they sign because these players would be bridges to players they draft, those who they see as their future at the positions as exact fits who are brought up within their defense.
An ideal signing would be Anthony Walker, the Browns free agent who is lower priced, played in Matt Eberflus' system three years and would be a better transitional player leading to a younger replacement. He's also still young enough that if they can't find a draft replacement, he could man the position for a few years without issues.
This is the same thought process the Bears need to use with all free agents they approach.
It truly is a rebuilding year for their defense in terms of system and player fit. Wasting money on players who can't be perfect fits is unwise when there are so many needs for their cap cash, particularly finding a wide receiver in a market where free agents will be scarce and overpriced.
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