Theorizing Bears Offensive Failure

It's been four years of Matt Nagy's offense overpromising and underachieving and here are the theories on why it happened.

It almost seemed Matt Nagy would supply the answer to the big question. 

It's the one everyone has had for the last three years.

What happened?

Four years ago Nagy came to Chicago as the hottest offensive coach available for hire and initially it seemed promising, even while the production never really rose above lukewarm his first season.

Then came 2019 and Nagy's offense never took off. 

There was a scene caught on video along the sidelines in Week 3 when Nick Foles was seen saying to Andy Dalton that Nagy's offense wasn't working. 

"Yeah, the offense was not working that day," Foles responded when asked about it after authoring the Dec. 26 win at Seattle, implying the situation existed only against Cleveland. 

It happened in games regularly from 2019-21. The offense wasn't working.

They've never finished higher than 21st in passing and remain last this year. After 2018 when they benefited greatly from a takeaway avalanche by their defense, they haven't been higher than 22nd in scoring and 26th in yardage.

"Yeah, I would say big picture, and for, as every year, you always look back and see, 'OK, what are the reasons for different areas within the offense?' " Nagy said. "I think as the years go on there's a lot of things that happen for different reasons."

Nagy almost seemed to decide in mid-answer he wasn't revealing anything and in a long comment that went nowhere he suggested it's something he'd sit back and really study later

He touched on the fact the defense didn't do the same thing for the offense again, which sounds rather ridiculous. Of course they struggled getting turnovers over the last three years but no defense can expect to get 36 takeaways every year.

"I mean you could take it to the next level, you look at 2018 and you see the amount of turnovers and defensively touchdowns, and special teams touchdowns, regardless of how it affects the offense it can affect the team," Nagy said. "You know, complementary football in all three phases. There's a lot of different things you can look at: coaching, players, scheme."

Try all of the above. The complementary football aspect seems a bit of a reach. 

Don't expect Nagy to ever expound upon this question. If a time comes for his dismissal he won't be meeting with media to talk about it.

We are left to offer theories. Here are some.

5. KC-O But Not the Personnel

You can't run the Kansas City offense without a bonafide Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. You need unmatched speed in a receiver who has few flaws, and a tight end who has the hands and speed to play like a wide receiver but the size to block. Cole Kmet isn't a bad tight end and has doubled his rookie catch total to 56 but has the a long way to go to ever approach Kelce numbers. Trey Burton was their best tight end receiver threat before Kmet and a better downfield target, but spent more time in the trainer's room than catching passes. Darnell Mooney is fast, but a level below Hill in speed.  Even when given KC style players, they didn't get the chance to prove it. Nagy insisted they needed to get rid of Jordan Howard, Ryan Pace brought in David Montgomery because he was better for the passing game, but through 12 weeks this year Montgomery had 12 receptions and it's only after the season went down the drain that they've got him more passes to pad the total. He had only five more catches his rookie year than Howard had the year before, and it's not because he isn't a fit. He does play well in the passing game. They just don't use him enough in it.

4. QB

The long-held theory was true. The Bears didn't have the quarterback. Mitchell Trubisky wasn't the QB Nagy needed, and neither were Foles or Dalton. It's too soon to know if Justin Fields is, but now most likely we never will as time appears short for Nagy. You can't just keep sorting through quarterbacks forever until you get one to help work your offense. You take the best one available and adapt the offense.

3. Blocking

They originally had a lighter, more mobile offensive line rather than the bigger, more physical line required to run a lot of inside zone blocking scheme required for their run-pass options (RPOs). In the last two years there has been a big push to build up line's size, either by drafting bigger linemen or building up players they have. James Daniels and Sam Mustipher both added a good deal of weight. They got rid of tackle Charles Leno Jr., who was more of a mobile finesse blocker at tackle. This switch on the line requires time to take root. It's uncertain Mustipher is the center who can lead going forward, but if he is they require time now to get tackles Larry Borom and Teven Jenkins to mesh with the right guards and center they do finally settle upon. They haven't had time required with the same line together doing it over and over to make it work.

2. Afterthought Running Game 

This offense is not run-based. The more successful teams have strong run elements as foundations for success. It's run first, then play-action pass in the Green Bay, Tennessee, San Francisco Shanahan style of offense. Baltimore has a running approach that works. Even in Sean McVay's offense there is a stronger running element. Those teams may not start out running every game but have long ago established they are real threats to shove footballs down opponents' throats if defenses don't play them honestly. Playing a six-man box will not work against them. Their passing design also works well to complement their running attack. The Bears have never reached this level with their running game or complemented the passing game with it. They can't run out of the shotgun as well as the Chiefs have. The Bears have never married the running game to the shotgun unless they had a mobile quarterback contributing rushing yards and providing an extra option to worry defenses on the ground. They did manage to do it a little in two games this year, and Bill Lazor was patting them all on the backs for it but in one of these games—the opener—they just piled up meaningless rushing yardage after they trailed big all game. Counting on QB rushing yards is inviting broken ribs or an ankle sprain. When Trubisky wasn't on the field last year and they had an immobile quarterback, they averaged only 54.3 yards rushing a game from backs and receivers. This year, in games Fields started, their running backs and receivers averaged almost 4.58 yards a carry. In games he didn't start with the immobile QBs using shotgun extensively, they averaged 3.47. They still find it much tougher to run with immobile quarterbacks trying to hand it off out of the shotgun to backs. 

1. Nagy Himself

He was never the play caller he thought he was after the first season. His offense had obvious flaws resulting in predictability and stagnation. While GM Ryan Pace didn't supply the type of talent necessary to run the Kansas City-style offense, Nagy tried half-heartedly to adapt his offense properly to available talent. In the end, Nagy is still that Arena League quarterback he was, throwing it all over the place and running trick plays while other teams realize the true way to achieve balance on offense is to make defenses really fear their running game as complement to an effective passing game.  

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