Wait Might Not Be Long Based on the Past

Past rookie experiences suggest several reasons Bears rookie QB is likely to play but the impact is anyone's guess

The drumbeat began with Justin Fields selection and the faint cries are rapidly become louder.

Fans will want to see Fields starting in Week 1 or shortly thereafter. It will need to be thereafter.

Those who think this will happen, that Matt Nagy's promise to develop a passer is garbage or camouflage for his real plan, are merely deluding themselves.

Nagy said the key is, "...making sure that he’s getting reps, where he’s getting them, how’s he getting them, where’s the extra work coming in, the film study." 

Fans want the reps in games, coaches want it in practice or preseason.

Nagy was part of the Kansas City experience with Patrick Mahomes and he didn't play until Week 17 of his rookie year, only a token start in a meaningless season finale before Alex Smith started a playoff loss. Then Mahomes took over to begin Year 2.

It goes beyond this, however. Starting first-round quarterbacks in Week 1 has become less and less common over the years as teams have studied how passers perform when they get on the field and are unprepared.

From 2011-13 6 of 9 first-round quarterbacks selected started on opening day. Since the 2014 draft, only six of the 23 quarterbacks taken in Round 1 have started opening day.

So the trend and Nagy's background strong lend themselves to Fields watching Andy Dalton playing on opening day regardless of the clamoring of fans and "analysts."

Fields is already an anomaly as a first-round quarterback selected by a playoff team, anyway. Only Jordan Love, Mahomes, Deshaun Watson and Josh Allen from among the 32 quarterbacks drafted in Round 1 over the last decade went to teams that made the playoffs the previous season.

There is more bad news for the rush-the-quarterback crowd, but first the good news from their perspective.

.@justnfields is ready to get back in the lab and let his game do the talkin' 💯@ChicagoBears | #HeyRookie pic.twitter.com/sTWPf1jIs1

— NFL Films (@NFLFilms) May 6, 2021

They shouldn't need to wait long into the season to see Fields play.

There have been only three first-round quarterbacks in the last decade who had to wait as long as Mahomes to get a start. Besides Mahomes, there was Jake Locker and he started the opener of Year 2, and Love, who hasn't played yet but could start the opener if Aaron Rodgers carries on his grudge against the Packers.

The average starting point for the other 29 first-rounders taken was Week 3, or 3.4 to be exact. It's Week 4, or 4.3, if you take into account Mahomes' Week 17 start and Locker's start in his 18th NFL week.

So the Mitchell Trubisky experience with Mike Glennon and starting in Week 5 wasn't entirely out of the norm. Actually, it was the norm.

The only reason to expect Fields to ride the bench almost the entire season would be for Dalton to take the NFC North by storm or the Bears to regain their dominant 2018 defensive status, and time seems to have eroded chances for either. 

Dalton hasn't quarterbacked a playoff team since 2015 and the Bears 2018 defense is half gone. They're missing 50% of the top 12 players on that defense, the coordinator and every position coach. There are six holdovers and new coordinator Sean Desai is a disciple of the system used then, but has never been a coordinator and wasn't even a position coach in 2018.

The remaining bad news?

If Fields is playing. things are not going well for the Bears and it's unlikely he'll be performing at a level among the league's top passers.

Of the 30 over the last decade who started as rookies, only Robert Griffin III, Lamar Jackson and Andrew Luck quarterbacked teams into the playoffs as rookies. Of all the quarterbacks who played their first year at all, only Luck, Griffin, Mahomes, Paxton, Tua Tagovailoa and Jackson played for teams who had winning records their rookie years.

Only eight of the 29 managed to achieve quarterback ratings in their first seasons as high as Mitchell Trubisky's career passer rating of 87.2.

And even Mahomes didn't play well when he did get on the field as a starter as a rookie. In that one game he did win as a rookie starter, Mahomes had a touchdown pass, an interception, played to a sub-par passer rating of 76.1 but did give a glimmer of hope with an average of 8.1 yards per pass attempt.

In short, the percentages say Fields will likely play sooner than Nagy says, will play because the season isn't going well and will not be an immediate smash success. Who knows what that will mean for the future of Fields, or the coaching staff and GM Ryan Pace for that matter?

The NFL format of giving a team with 9 road games an extra preseason game in exchange is a joke, but #Bears fans might take it this year — another chance to see Justin Fields play. Mitch Trubisky's preseason debut drew 43,946 to Soldier Field in 2017. I'll take the over.

— Mark Potash (@MarkPotash) May 5, 2021

When quarterbacks wind up starting is largely subjective but the general trend is making them wait at least several games and not throwing them in Week 1.

Patience is a virtue for fans when it comes to watching their rookie quarterback.

First-Round Rookie QBs 

(Last 10 Years)

Player	Team	Week of 1st Rookie Start	Rookie Starting Record	Rookie Passer Rating
2020
Joe Burrow	Bengals	Week 1	2-7-1	89.8
Tua Tagovailoa	Dolphins	Week 8	6-3	87.1
Justin Herbert	Chargers	Week 2	5-11	98.3
Jordan Love	Packers	Has not played	-	-
2019
Kyler Murray	Cardinals	Week 1	5-10-1	87.4
Daniel Jones	Giants	Week 3	4-12	87.7
Dwayne Haskins	Washington	Week 9	2-5	76.1
2018
Baker Mayfield	Browns	Week 4	7-8-1	93.7
Sam Darnold	Jets	Week 1	4-9	77.6
Josh Allen	Bills	Week 2	5-6	67.9
Josh Rosen	Cardinals	Week 4	3-10	66.7
Lamar Jackson	Ravens	Week 9	6-1	84.5
2017
Mitchell Trubisky	BEARS	Week 5	4-8	77.5
Patrick Mahomes	Chiefs	Week 17	1-0	76.1
Deshaun Watson	Texans	Week 2	3-3	103.0
2016
Jared Goff	Rams	Week 11	0-7	63.6
Carson Wentz	Eagles	Week 1	7-9	79.3
Paxton Lynch	Broncos	Week 5	1-1	79.2
2015
Jameis Winston	Buccaneers	Week 1	6-10	84.2
Marcus Mariota	Titans	Week 1	3-9	91.5
2014
Blake Bortles	Jaguars	Week 4	3-10	69.5
Johnny Manziel	Browns	Week 14	0-2	42.0
Teddy Bridgewater	Vikings	Week 4	6-6	85.2
2013
E.J. Manuel	Bills	Week 1	4-6	77.7
2012
Andrew Luck	Colts	Week 1	11-5	76.5
Robert Griffin III	Washington	Week 1	9-6	102.4
Ryan Tannehill	Dolphins	Week 1	7-9	76.1
Brandon Weeden	Browns	Week 1	5-10	72.6
2011
Cam Newton	Panthers	Week 1	6-10	84.5
Jake Locker	Titans	No rookie starts	-	-
Blaine Gabbert	Jaguars	Week 3	4-10	65.4
Christian Ponder	Vikings	Week 7	2-8	70.1

 

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