What If Bears Had Made A Different Trade

Analysis: What would have happened if the trade the Bears made for a quarterback had not been to move up on draft day for Justin Fields but instead had been for Russell Wilson?

Last offseason's Bears pursuit of Russell Wilson by GM Ryan Pace ended with an unsuccessful trade bid, as everyone knows. 

There have been varying reports of what was offered, anywhere from two firsts and a third to two firsts, some players and even a middle round pick. Regardless, none of it matters one bit now as the Seahawks were not into trading Wilson and the Bears couldn't convince Pete Carroll it was in his best interest, which it really wasn't. 

What does matter is where the Bears would have been if they actually had completed the trade and had Wilson playing a homecoming game this Sunday in Seattle wearing a Bears uniform.

Here's one informed, speculative view of what would have happened had Wilson come to the Bears and been at quarterback instead of the combination of Justin Fields and Andy Dalton, as well as what the future would hold for the franchise.

We really wanted the Bears to trade for Russell Wilson then they turned around drafted the younger bigger version 🥲

— . (@TreyBizzy) May 11, 2021

1. The Bears would be in the playoffs

Most likely a throw-in to actually complete the trade would have been Akiem Hicks and/or Jaylon Johnson, who could have greatly helped Seattle's struggling defense this year. Wilson would have had to score a lot more points then than Matt Nagy's offense is capable of scoring to win games because a Bears secondary without Johnson this year would have been a debacle. Wilson would have been beaten up on occasion because of an offensive line with problems early in the year. The Bears most likely would have been a 7-7 team heading into the final three games and fighting for that last playoff berth with the Eagles, Redskins, Vikings and Saints. They would have been a slightly better team, but not good enough to really matter because of their overall talent deficiencies at key positions like the offensive line, cornerback and receiver. 

Bears also come to town Sunday with almost as many former Seahawks first-round picks --- Germain Ifedi and Bruce Irvin --- as Seattle will have (Brooks, Collier, Penny).

— Bob Condotta (@bcondotta) December 23, 2021

The initial surge of momentum and excitement they would have had from Wilson would have provided energy enough to beat Cleveland and they would have been 4-1 before losing to the Packers and Buccaneers, instead of 3-2 like they were. They would have won at least one of the games against Pittsburgh or Baltimore, and could have beaten Minnesota. 

Expecting they would have been better than .500 after they are now 4-10 is entirely unrealistic. After all, Seattle is only 5-9 this year with Wilson. Sure, Wilson has been injured but when he did play the Seahawks were only 4-7 and it can't all be blamed on his offensive line as Seahawks fans have been doing for years. Seattle hasn't been in a championship game since 2015 with Wilson at quarterback and the receivers Wilson would have had to help him in Chicago probably don't rate as strong overall as DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.

2. Greater pessimism about the future

A season with either an 8-9 record or 9-8 playoff berth would have generated even less optimism for the team's future because Wilson is a 33-year-old quarterback whose great strength is mobility, and he'll only have that asset for a few more years. Giving up so many draft picks and one or two defensive players would have made it difficult to add more talent on defense for the future and it would have been impossible to elevate their overall talent level going forward. The future for the Bears would have been far more bleak than it is with Fields and so much youth on the team.

Russell Wilson realizing he’s actually going to have to throw the ball to DK Metcalf this week with Tyler Lockett on the covid list pic.twitter.com/QEzD67EDCO

— alexSSN (@alexSSN) December 16, 2021

3. The veteran cash crunch costs them talent

They didn't have the money to keep franchise free agent Allen Robinson with a long-term deal and they would be cash-strapped to an even greater extent with Wilson on board than they are now. 

They couldn't afford to go forward with Wilson as well as the big money being paid for Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn, so one of their pass rushers would have to go after this season. This might happen anyway but it would have occurred for certain in 2022 if Wilson had been under contract. 

With no draft picks, a weaker defense and Robinson leaving in free agency, as well as a more mediocre and older offensive line than they have now, the possibility of Wilson being able to lead the Bears to a Super Bowl in the future would have been very low. The entire move would have gone for naught.

4. Welcome to Chi-troit

Want real depression? Matt Nagy would be the coach for the foreseeable future and Ryan Pace the GM because they would manage to pull the team into the playoffs again. Making the playoffs would be perceived as "progress," the buzzword team owner George McCaskey threw around in describing what he needed to see from the team this year. So this would earn a contract extension for Pace and Nagy, but it would be impossible for the team to get better than 9-8 in the future due to lost picks and the salary cap crunch caused by Wilson's deal. And don't forget, they would be coached by Nagy for a few more years into the future. With so many older players and so few draft picks, the franchise would disintegrate into what Detroit has been since it foolishly got rid of coach Jim Caldwell. 

This might happen now anyway for the Bears, but at least with a coming coaching change and even possible front office changes next year, there is hope for something better in the near future. 

Nah this is Russell Wilson looking for his receivers. https://t.co/QP3AscM4aC

— Aaron Morse (@MorseCode206) December 22, 2021

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