Where It Really Might Hurt for Bears

If Chicago loses free agents there could be some compensatory picks in the future but the pain of seeing these players perform well and possibly do it for rivals could be too much to bear.

NFL free agency is a case of gambling with restoration over ruin.

Teams pay higher market prices for players who might not suit their system, their locker room or their salary cap.

It's not simply a two-sided coin. The third side is what happens after a team loses a free agent. They not only can become a big loser based on spending for the wrong players, but the players they lose could not only go only to succeed but do it for a rival.

The Bears absorbed a good dose of this reality when safty Adrian Amos went to Green Bay as a free agent after the division-winning 2018 season and kept right on winning division titles with the Packers while the Bears fought through two .500 years and a 6-11 season, followed by Matt Nagy's firing.

This applies to an even larger extent to players cut for salary cap purposes than for free agents because losing those players was not really a desired decision.

The Bears experienced this in 2020 when Ryan Pace decided he couldn't pay outside linebacker Leonard Floyd and used the money, instead, to sign Robert Quinn. They had to wait a year for Quinn to pay off. And while Floyd didn't go to a division rival, he went instead to a team the Bears had beaten in 2018 handily and helped transform their defense into one that not only beat the Bears in 2020 and 2021 but also won the Super Bowl.

Ouch.

The Bears face similar nightmarish situations in coming free agency. With a new general manager, there is a bit more leniency because Ryan Poles has no ties to the past regime's players. Still, he's going to get plenty of flak if someone leaves and has great success elsewhere even if it was a player he had little knowledge of or confidence in.

Here's what could happen with the free agents they don't sign, or the players they decide to cut so they have cap space to add players or sign the players they want to keep.

1. WR Allen Robinson

At one time last year there was much noise about Robinson going to the Packers but it was exactly that. The Packers will be lucky to get under the cap and keep their own players let alone worry about signing someone else's $15 million-to-$18 million free agent. What Robinson should do is find the team with the best quarterback who has a chance to lead a division winner and sign there, because after chasing passses from Mitchell Trubisky, Nick Foles, Andy Dalton, rookie Justin Fields, Chase Daniel, Blake Bortles and Chad Henne, he deserves it. 

However, dream scenarios do not always develop. There is one team with a rumored interest in Robinson and it's going to come back to haunt the Bears twice a year if it proves true. That would be the Detroit Lions. Robinson is from the Detroit area and used to talk about it when he was with the Bears. Sure, the dream for Robinson would be signing in a warm climate with a potential Super Bowl-winning quarterback and prosper. But if he can't do that, then punishing the Bears twice a year might suffice—especially if he can command big dollars and do it.

2. DE Akiem Hicks

Hicks still has some years left. He said late last season he has no plans to retire even though he turns 33 this season. Any defensive lineman who has seen Ndamukong Suh play effectively into his mid-30s has to be encouraged. The new regime might have welcomed Hicks back with open arms except he is more of a 3-4 defensive end than a 4-3 defensive tackle. There is technique and playing style involved up front and not just brute force. So Hicks going to a 3-4 team seems possible. 

Detroit is one possibility. The Lions have been vulnerable up the middle. Hicks has no real ties to the Lions other than scheme. 

A nightmare scenario for the Bears could be Hicks going to the Minnesota Vikings, who have had problems stopping the run in recent years and now have switched under coach Kevin O'Connell to a 3-4. It's the first time the Vikings haven't used three linebackers since 1985. So Hicks might be a perfect fit, and the fact defensive coordinator Ed Donatell knows him from when the two were together in Chicago from 2015-18 only strengthens the possibility of Hicks as a Viking. There are several factors weighing against it. At $15 million over the cap according to Overthecap.com, the Vikings are worse off than all but three other teams. They'll need to dump salaries before worrying about signing someone. There are rumors this will happen in Minnesota about everyone from Dalvin Cook to Kirk Cousins, though.
The second issue is Hicks had an argument during the 29-3 Bears win over the New York Giants with defensive line coach Chris Rumph, according to Adam Jahns of "The Athletic." Jahns said a source told him it was "heated and ugly" and right in fronit of teammates, coaches and staff members. After that Hicks didn't even practice or make the trip for the finale to Minnesota.

Now, who is the Vikings' brand new defensive line coach? None other than Rumph.

The sunshine of L.A. seems a better fit for Hicks. Former Bears outside linebackers coach Brandon Staley is head coach and is running the Vic Fangio 3-4. The Chargers' biggest weakness last year was run defense. They were 30th in the NFL. They tried adding weight to lanky defensive tackle Jerry Tillery and got him to 295. That's not 3-4 lineman size. He had 4 1/2 sacks to lead their defensive linemen. No one else on their defensive line had more than three sacks.

Hicks owes it to himself to go to the sunshine and plug the run or sack quarterbacks. 

Besides that, he's a huge Lakers fan.

3. NT Eddie Goldman

Speculation that the Bears will cut their nose tackle results from several factors. The main one is his high cap figure of $11.8 million, the fifth-highest on the team. Goldman is coming off his worst season as a Bears player since injuring an ankle in 2016 and it comes a year after he opted out in 2020 due to the pandemic. Add in the fact he is a two-gap lineman trying to fit into a one-gap system, and his departure seems all but assured. Just like with Hicks, Goldman could very well end up in Minnesota. However, he had no known argument with Rumph, like Hicks. 

However, a defensive line coach is a reason why he could very well end up in Los Angeles with the Chargers. Goldman flourished under Jay Rodgers, the former Bears defensive line coach who won the John Teerlinck Award in 2018 as the league's best defensive line coach. Now Rodgers isn't coaching the defensive line for the Chargers. He is the defensive run game coordinator and also outside linebackers coach. He's still right there on staff. And one other factor about the Chargers besides the fact they were terrible at stopping the run last year is that they had over $42 million in cap space available, according to Overthecap.com. This will obviously drop after the signed Mike Williams to a contract extension of about $20 million a year. Another possiblity for Goldman might be Detroit, but the Lions drafted 330-pound nose tackle Alim McNeil last year and appear to like his progress.

4. DT Bilal Nichols

The Bears can't really afford to lose all their defensive linemen, especially when Nichols is the most easily converted to playing a 4-3. He has played three technique and the one technique in the past in a 3-4. His game actually has appeared more suited to shooting gaps than holding up blockers. It all depends on whether the new coaches saw enough on film to be convinced he should get about $24 million over three years, because that's what Pro Football Focus estimates he'd fetch in free agency. 

Would the entire Bears defensive line defect to L.A.? The Chargers probably wouldn't mind but it would be an awful lot of cash to be paying out for a defensive line only after the Bears were a poor team against the run last year (23rd). Plus, the Chargers have some other issues to address. Nichols' versatility could land him about anywhere he can find a team short on defensive linemen but with some cash. 

It might not necessarily come back to haunt the Bears, but losing all three of their starting defensive linemen couldn't be desireable even if they are switching schemes.

5. G James Daniels

Division teams seem unlikely landing spots for Daniels because they appear to have the position addressed or they lack the cap space to dole out anywhere from $7.4 million to $12 million a year projected for Daniels by various analysts. For Daniels, a better fit would be three AFC teams. Cincinnati is the most obvious. It's an easy act to follow when you're coming to a line that allowed their franchise quarterback to be sacked 70 times coming off of knee surgery. Who wouldn't want to go to a team that is capable of going to the Super Bowl? On the losing end of it, the New York Jets have cap money and a bad need at guard. Also the Miami Dolphins need more protection for Tua Tagovailoa. For the Bears, going to Miami or the Jets would mean they get to face Daniels this season because they're playing all the AFC East teams.

6. WR Jakeem Grant

He could go about anywhere in the league where they have a little money to throw at a return man who may or may not be able to help for a few plays a game on offense. With several other players available who could return, it seems unlikely he would be back in an offense that emphasizes bigger receivers. Green Bay's punt return teams were bad last year and Grant burned them for a 97-yarder touchdown, so anticipate the Packers to make a run at him if they can scrounge together a penny or two that Aaron Rodgers' ego hasn't already absorbed. Most likely it will be somewhere else and the Bears can be jealous they let a good return man get away for a second straight year. Kansas City might be a fit. The Chiefs like smaller, faster receivers and could lose two receivers in free agency.

7. QB Andy Dalton

He could turn up just about anywhere as a backup with a lengthy history as starter. If he comes back to haunt the Bears then more power to him. It will mean he not only found a way off the bench but also a way to beat a team with a coaching staff and personnel department completely different than the one bringing him to Chicago last year when he was supposed to be the starter. 

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