Quality Over Quantity for Bears

Analysis: Why the Bears need to think more about moving up rather than trading down after Round 1.

The Bears have set themselves up for a wild draft.

GM Ryan Poles has conducted just one draft but based on what happened then, things could really get hectic again on Day 2 and Day 3—if not the first round. It's just that it could happen differently.

A year ago it was current assistant college scouting director Breck Ackley describing their draft room on the final day like "...a little Wolf of Wall Street there for a minute when the trade calls were coming in."

Poles had a real draft handicap last year with no first-round pick and with no picks after No. 71 in Round 3 until the middle of Round 5. He had to find ways to cope with the big gaps in their draft and traded to keep acquiring more players. The problem was, he was trading way back in the draft where the talent is more scarce.

At the time, the Bears needed numbers as much as anything so it made sense. 

Players at the bottom of the draft could supply this and more picks gave them more chances to try to hit on a pick later, according to Poles. 

They did with Braxton Jones in Round 5, and in Round 7 they found a quality punter in Trenton Gill.

Near the end of the first week of this year's free agency, Poles again addressed trading.

"There might be some things we can do to maybe move around," he said.

There is a good reason to think this one could be as hectic in later rounds, possibly even Day 2. On Day 1, if they get offers to trade back it could happen. 

Everyone from Poles to board chairman George McCaskey has confirmed the ninth pick could be had by a team with the right offer after they've already trade back from No. 1.

"As you know from the first draft with me, we did a lot of movement back but then maybe there's some movement back and then going the other way too," Poles said.

Trading Up for Targeted Quality

Any team can always trade back. It's not that case with trading up for better quality players unless you want to risk a great deal of talent going off the board behind you after the trade.

The Bears clearly are set up to be able to go "the other way," and trade up this year after Round 1. It wasn't so easy last year. This time, the Bears have two picks in the second, fourth, fifth and seventh rounds.

When a team has two picks in a round, it's an invitation to make a trade up because they know by giving up a pick they still have that round covered by another pick or subsequent rounds covered with picks, anyway. There will be no big gap in their draft, or it could be smaller.

For instance, the Bears could trade their second-round pick at No. 61 and some other pick to move up in Round 2 or even Round 1. They have the 64th pick, the first pick in Round 3. It's almost like a second-rounder and can be used as trade bait or to backstop their trade using the second-round picks. Wy not trade? They've got a pick coming up right away at 64.

The same is true in Round 4, as they have the 103rd pick early in the round and then one at the back at 133. They could use that fourth-rounder with one of their second-round picks to move up into Round 2. Or maybe they trade the first pick of Round 3 with one of their fourth-rounders to move up for another player in Round 2.

In Round 5 they have 133 and 148. Using one of those picks as an added player thrown in while making a trade up is always a possibility.

The value is good for trades according to the value chart Draftek.com posts based on the old Jimmy Johnson value chart.

The 53rd pick in Round 2 is worth 370 points and the 61st worth 292 points. The 64th in Round 3 is 270. The bottom of Round 1 is worth 600. If they needed to throw in more picks at some point, the pick starting Round 4 is worth 88 on the chart but actually more valuable because it's the first pick on Day 3 and GMs have had a night to sit back and look over who's left. Their 133rd pick is worth 39.5 and the bottom of Round 4 is 38.5 points.

Their first pick in Round is almost a fourth-rounder at 38 points and their other fifth-rounder is 31 points.

The two seven-round picks are worth practically nothing at one point each and any team gathering up seventh rounders is either in the first year of a rebuilding stage like the Bears were, or they don't know what they're doing.

The Bears are in a state now where the number of picks is not as important as getting quality players. They have specific needs on the defensive line, offensive line, cornerback, even running back and safety whereas last year they simply were trying to find a way to fill out a roster.

If they found a team willing to take the first pick of Round 3 and first pick of Round 4 they could move up and have three second-round picks and a better level of talent.

Moving back and getting an extra Round 3 pick doesn't make much sense when they already have plenty of picks coming up with two in Round 4 and Round 5.

Immediate Hits Critical This Time

Quality over quantity should be their approach.

They don't need to use the approach they did last year when Poles said they hoped to hit on some of those later picks, as they had eight picks on the final day of the draft, all in Round five or later.

They didn't hit on six of those eight picks, and one of those two they hit on wasn't a regular position player but a special teams player.

Although the jury definitely is out on running back Trestan Ebner, guard Ja'Tyre Carter, defensive end Dominique Robinson, safety Elijah Hicks and injured center Doug Kramer, the first season didn't provide immediate payback.

The quick payback came in Round 2 with starters Jaquan Brisker and Kyler Gordon.

The Bears are set up for moving up at numerous points in the draft after Round 1 and need to use that advantage for immediate and real quality.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven